Is The Donald A Dollar Risk?

The U. S. dollar will weaken sharply if Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November, according to Bloomberg’s Mark Cudmore. But it’s less clear if the sell-off has legs beyond his potential inauguration in January.
Given some of the pronouncements made during his campaign to date, markets will rightly be concerned about the direction of Trump’s policy. But, without taking a view on whether he actually intends to preside as indicated, the reality is that he’ll be severely constrained in his ability to dictate policy.
Recent polls show that a Trump victory isn’t the base case. But, with three months until the election, its worth evaluating what could be the initial impact of a Trump victory.
There’s a valid risk that the credibility of the greenback as the world’s reserve currency may be undermined amid fears that Trump may rip-up or ignore previous treaties and trade agreements.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 9, 2016.

Gold Stocks Versus Bullion: Inflation 101

Gold price bulls and bears may all be getting a bit frustrated now, as gold refuses to follow their predicted paths, and simply meanders sideways. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily gold chart. Gold is well-supported in the current price zone. Institutions are buyers on minor dips, but the next major move to the upside is unlikely to happen without a significant fundamental catalyst. Janet Yellen makes an important speech at Jackson Hole later this month. For decades, I’ve viewed the August 7th – October 31st time period as US stock market ‘crash season’. If Janet causes the stock market to stumble with stronger words about a possible rate hike in September, that could quickly send gold towards my $1432 target. The US election, French election, and an Italian referendum are also potential price drivers. The current global macro situation is a good one for gold price enthusiasts, but in terms of time a bit of patience is required. Please click here now. Goldman’s view of what Donald Trump brings to the table (more government spending) may not sit well with members of his fan club, but the entitlements funding nightmare is something that neither US candidate seems to want to address with any degree of seriousness. It’s impossible to significantly reduce government spending’s horrifying drag on the US economy without facing that entitlements nightmare directly, and taking the brutal action needed to cut the fat. So, I’ve categorically stated that the election of Hillary Clinton is good news for gold, and the election of Donald Trump is great news for gold. In France, ongoing terrorist attacks have destroyed Hollande’s chances of getting elected again, and the opposition nomination takes place in November. Hollande is one of the most prolific spenders in the Western world, and whoever takes over his position takes over what is really an economic disaster zone.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 9 August 2016.

Trump Vows To “Jump Start” Economy With “Tax Revolution”; Is Interrupted At Least 14 Times

Donald Trump says his economic plan represents "biggest tax revolution" since Reagan era — ABC News (@ABC) August 8, 2016

In his first comprehensive speech laying out his vision for the US economy, Donald Trump presented a tax-slashing agenda which would seek to cut regulations, while blaming Hillary Clinton for America’s economic woes in a highly touted address Monday at the Detroit Economic Club. ‘Americanism, not globalism, will be our new credo,’ Trump declared, saying his plan represents the “biggest tax revolution” since the Reagan era. “I want to jump-start America,’ the GOP presidential nominee added in another line that brought both applause and boos from the crowd.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 8, 2016.

ZZZZZZZZZZZ….

Wake the fuck up! Today we turn from the sordid dumbshow of Election 2016 to the parlous mysteries of finance and economics behind our sick politics. Most of the commentary in the mainstream special needs news media is based on the incorrect notion that the current disposition of things is sure to continue and therefore all we have to do is manage the familiar dynamics of the operating system in place. For instance, Grand Vizier Paul Krugman in today’s New York Times pimping for the US to issue ever-greater debt to repair US infrastructure. Does it seem like a sound idea? Borrow tons more money to get American running gear back in order so we can return to a growth economy. (There’s even a Trumpian gloss to it.)
Here’s the catch: the ‘growth economy’ of which they chatter is done. You can stick a fork in it. The techno-industrial fantasia is drawing to a close. We are heading into a long term contraction of activity, productivity, and population and the salient question is how disorderly will the long emergency of the journey be to that new disposition of things?
The wish to keep all our rackets running is understandable. They have provided a lot of comfort, convenience, and luxury. But we are no longer in Alexander Hamilton’s world of cornucopian American abundance, just needing to borrow a little from the future to get at the gargantuan riches of a wilderness empire. We’ve been there and done that, and our present-day techno-narcissistic wish to replace all that spent material abundance with a Pokemon Go virtual reality economy is sure to lead to epochal disenchantment.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on August 8, 2016.

Ex-CIA, Ex-Goldman, Anti-Trump Republican Launches Independent Presidential Bid

On the day that Trump is set to unveil his economic plan, as Hillary’s post-convention bounce fades in the polls, Buzzfeed’s McKay Coppins reports that Evan McMullin – a CIA veteran and Goldman Sachs alum – is preparing to launch an indepedent presidential campaign. Several key players in GOP’s anti-Trump movement are behind thisstunt effort…
Opposing @realDonaldTrump is about putting principle over power, a virtue some in Washington are too quick to abandon. #NeverTrump
— Evan McMullin (@Evan_McMullin) May 7, 2016

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 8, 2016.

Laurence Kotlikoff for President

The Next President’s Debt Burden
According to the Department of Commerce, U. S. gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the second quarter of 2016. This, unfortunately, isn’t indicative of the sort of robust economic activity that will grow the economy out of debt. In fact, as growth is stagnating, deficits are increasing.
***
The U. S. fiscal year 2015 budget deficit was about $439 billion. For fiscal year 2016, the federal government is projected to run a deficit of $616 billion. The upsurge, of roughly $177 billion, amounts to about a 40 percent deficit increase from 2015 to 2016.
Presently, the federal debt is well over 100 percent of GDP. Obviously, 1.2 percent GDP growth is wholly inadequate to shrink the debt. To the contrary, 1.2 percent GDP growth in the face of a projected $616 billion deficit will further increase the debt as a percentage of GDP.
As far as we can tell, neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump is talking about the U. S. debt problem. What’s more, they’re economic platforms both include massive spending programs. The difference, of course, will be made up with debt. But how much debt can the next president really add?
George W. Bush doubled the federal debt from $5 trillion to $10 trillion. Barack Obama’s on target to double the federal debt from $10 trillion to $20 trillion. It is unlikely the next president will be able to double the debt from $20 trillion to $40 trillion.

This post was published at Acting-Man on August 8, 2016.

The Most Cynical Take On Friday’s Jobs Number: “The Fed Will Not Hike In September With Trump In The Race”: Citi

If traders have a feeling that there is a prevailing sense of blase disenchantment involving not only US macro data but the overall market, you are not alone. Here is arguably the best, and thus most cynical take, of Friday’s impressive seasonal adjustment factor payrolls report, from Citi’s Brent Donnelly:
Summer apathy and generally high frustration levels related to poor returns, extreme bearishness and existential questions around the death of price discovery due to central bank meddling.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 7, 2016.

“Sell Everything”… But Why: What Has The Smartest Investors So Spooked?

Many of the smartest investors out there hate stocks. Since May, we’ve heard negative equity calls from Stan Druckenmiller, George Soros, Carl Icahn, Jeff Gundlach and Bill Gross. Wall Street lore says ‘Never argue about markets with a guy who is much richer than you’. So we’ll take the discussion in a different direction: what do they know?
Successful investors are always more plugged in than the market as a whole – hence their success. And while we can only guess at the lynchpins of their negative take on stocks, we do have some idea of how significant they must be. For example, in 2016 the S&P 500 is up 5.9% on a price basis after 1) the Brexit ‘Leave’ vote, 2) dramatically disappointing Q1 and Q2 U. S. GDP, 3) a correction of 20% in oil prices, 4) a Fed that has incorrectly calibrated its public stance on monetary policy, 5) Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for president, and 6) the U. S. 10 Year Treasury at near record low yields.
None of that has been enough to spook U. S. equity markets. So whatever the big boys think they know, it must be really bad. But what is it, and why is it so hidden from view?
‘Someone is getting this information before you.’ If you’ve ever worked at a hedge fund, you know this is the worst thing you can hear. It means you are behind the curve, providing yesterday’s news into an investment process meant to predict the future. ‘Titanic sinks!’ or ‘man lands on the moon!’ are the more playful retorts you’ll get from co-workers. But it all means the same thing: up your game, or get a white box from the mail room.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 7, 2016.

DONALD TRUMP WARNS OF ‘VERY SCARY SCENARIOS’ FOR STOCKS AHEAD

I’m not sure Trump is aware of this Jubilee year, but he certainly understands that the stock market is at a highly dangerous level.
‘Interest rates are artificially low,’ Trump told Fox in an interview, HERE. ‘The only reason the stock market is where it is is because you get free money.’
That is absolutely true and unheard of to be acknowledged by a front-running Presidential candidate.
He then warned of ‘very scary scenarios’ ahead for investors.
It’s an obvious-enough warning. Central bankers continue to build a pyramid of debt by printing trillions in aggregate. Since 2008 and the beginning of the current slump/depression, they’ve printed well over $50 trillion. The money hasn’t helped the economy… in fact it has made it worse. But it’s sent stocks and bonds into the stratosphere.

This post was published at Dollar Vigilante on AUGUST 5, 2016.

Trump’s border wall idea dismissed by Mexico’s foreign minister, who calls for greater integration with U.S.

August 2016 – MEXICO – Mexico’s foreign minister, Claudia Ruiz Massieu, dismissed Republican U. S. presidential nominee Donald Trump’s calls for the nation to pay for a border wall, calling instead for greater integration between the nations. In interviews with Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg TV in New York on Thursday, Ruiz cited the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership as an opportunity to deepen the trade relationship created by the North American Free Trade Agreement, which took effect in 1994.
Trump has made his demand for Mexico to pay as much as $10 billion to build the wall a centerpiece of his campaign and has threatened to block remittance payments from immigrants in the U. S. until the Mexican government complies.

This post was published at UtopiatheCollapse on August 5, 2016.

Trump Unveils Economic Advisory Team; Carl Icahn Turns Down Invitation

Earlier today Donald Trump, who despite lagging Hillary badly in the most recent polls, remains perceived as the presidential candidate who is better equipped to do a “better job on the economy“…

… even though a majority believes that Hillary is “more qualified” to be president (suggesting that to Americans the economy is not really a core part of the presidential mandate) unveiled his all-male economic team which in addition to boasting 6 guys named Steve, also includes billionaire hedge fund manager, John Paulson, to help guide the GOP presidential candidate’s economic policy.
The 13-member group, whose average member has a net worth in the high double-digit million, features several longtime Trump business associates but only one academic economist, Peter Navarro of the University of California-Irvine. He specializes in trade with China, which Trump has made the centerpiece economic policy of his campaign.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 5, 2016.

Trump is Right About Stocks

Right on the Money OUZILLY, France – It is not often that you get investment advice from a presidential candidate. It is even rarer that you get good advice.
***
But yesterday, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gave investors both good advice and good analysis. Bloomberg has the report:
Donald Trump on Tuesday said interest rates set by the Federal Reserve are inflating the stock market and recommended 401(k)-holders to get out of equities, just like he did.
‘I did invest and I got out, and it was actually very good timing,’ the Republican presidential nominee said in a phone interview with Fox Business. ‘But I’ve never been a big investor in the stock market.’
‘Interest rates are artificially low,’ Trump said. ‘The only reason the stock market is where it is is because you get free money.’

This post was published at Acting-Man on August 5, 2016.

Eye on the Ball

I try to be a long-term thinker and filter out all the short-term noise. That’s hard nowadays, because there is so much short-term noise!
Just a handful of things that have happened in the last 24 hours:
Trump is more or less blowing himself up. Walmart is buying Jet.com. Bill Dudley says the Fed will hike rates, when everyone knows he is full of malarkey. Vancouver housing prices are up 32% year over year, but sales are down 19%. Any one of these four things would be big news, especially in the dog days of summer. But all four? It’s crazy out there.
Now, my boss, Ed D’Agostino, once told me that the cardinal rule of free newsletters is to only talk about one thing at a time. I’ve more or less stuck to that over the last two years. But this time, I can’t stay focused. I can’t resist the temptation to dive into the short-term stuff.
So here we go. Put your boots on.
I’ll go in reverse order:
4. Yes. Vancouver housing prices are up 32 freaking percent from last July.

This post was published at Mauldin Economics on AUGUST 4, 2016.

Trump Taj Mahal To Be Shuttered… Again

In a move that couldn’t be worse timing for The Donald, the Associated Press is reporting that Carl Icahn is shutting down the Trump Taj Mahal casino in Atlantic City. While Trump currently has no stake in the casino (he lost his ownership to bondholders in a previous bankruptcy filing) we have a sneaking suspicion that his rivals will take advantage of this opportunity to highlight his previous failed business endeavors. For his part, Icahn acquired his stake in the Trump Taj Mahal during it’s previous bankruptcy filing. Icahn is attributing the closure of the casino to a strike by its unionized workers over wages and health insurance costs. The casino is expected to be closed after Labor Day and will result in 3,000 job losses for the struggling Atlantic City.
In comments made to the Associated Press, Icahn said that he lost nearly $100 million on the Taj Mahal in the past 18 months, including money he spent to keep it afloat during bankruptcy court before he even owned it, added that “It was a bad bet. How much good money do you throw after bad?”
Tony Rodio, CEO of the casino, said that Icahn has spent $100mm trying to save the Taj in Atlantic City. He continued:
“Currently the Taj is losing multimillions a month, and now with this strike, we see no path to profitability. Our directors cannot just allow the Taj to continue burning through tens of millions of dollars when the union has single handedly blocked any path to profitability.“

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 4, 2016.

Republican Mutiny Fizzles: “Trump Will Be On The Ballot”

Amid the constant headlines, speculative reporting, uncited sourcing, and relentless spin; it appears chatter of mutiny aboard the GOP has been officially squashed.
As The Hill reports, the Republican National Committee is categorically denying reports that party officials are looking into how to replace Donald Trump in case he drops out of the presidential race before Election Day…
No one at national party headquarters has been instructed to look into that doomsday scenario, RNC strategist Sean Spicer said, and speculation that the RNC might pressure Trump to drop out of the race is unfounded. Spicer insisted that there is no chance that anyone else will be the ballot in November.
‘Donald Trump is the nominee of the Republican Party full-stop,’ Spicer told The Hill. ‘That’s the reality. The rest is just a media-pundit concoction.’.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 3, 2016.

Is Trump Dropping Out of the Election?

The Republican National Committee is reportedly weighing its options in the event that GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump drops out of the election.
But is Trump dropping out of the race?
Here’s what we know…
This morning, ABC News’ Jonathan Karl told ‘Good Morning America’ that he’s been told senior officials in the party are actively looking into how they’ll replace the real estate magnate.
‘This is absolutely unprecedented,’ Karl said. ‘I am told that RNC chairman Reince Priebus is furious he has had multiple discussions with Trump telling him he needs to drastically change course.’

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Money Morning Staff Reports ‘ August 3, 2016.

Republicans Furious After “Disastrous” 48 Hours For Trump, Said To “Plot Intervention”

It has been a tough several days for Donald Trump. According to the WSJ, “Donald Trump is confronting the roughest patch of his presidential campaign, with even some of his strongest supporters urging him to shift gears and focus more on policy than personality.” ABC adds that Republican officials are even exploring how to handle a scenario that would be unthinkable in a normal election year: What would happen if the party’s presidential nominee dropped out, adding that senior party officials are so frustrated – and confused – by Donald Trump’s erratic behavior that they are exploring how to replace him on the ballot if he drops out.
And while the Trump campaign has denied any such speculation, when moments ago Trump advisor Conway said that dropout talk is wishful thinking, according to NBC Republicans close to Donald Trump’s orbit are “plotting an intervention with the candidate after a disastrous 48 hours led some influential voices in the party to question whether Trump can stay at the top of the Republican ticket without catastrophic consequences for his campaign and the GOP at large.”
Republican National Committee head Reince Priebus, former Republican New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich are among the Trump endorsers hoping to talk the real estate mogul into a dramatic reset of his campaign in the coming days, sources tell NBC News.
The group of GOP heavyweights hopes to enlist the help of Trump’s children – who comprise much of his innermost circle of influential advisers – to aid in the attempt to rescue his candidacy. Trump’s family is considered to have by far the most influence over the candidate’s thinking at what could be a make-or-break moment for his campaign.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 3, 2016.

A “Revolted” French President Lashes Out At Donald Trump: “His Excesses Are Sickening”

While over the past week Trump has hardly needed outside help to generate a spectacular dose of media scandals, overnight an unexpected attack came from none other than French socialist president Hollande expressed extreme revulsion at Donald Trump’s ‘excesses’ in the U. S. presidential campaign and warned against the authoritarian tone adopted by the Republican nominee.
Coming from the man who defined the term “shampoo socialism” when it was revealed that his personal hairdresser costs the French people 11,000 per month, Hollande knows excesses when he sees them. In fact, Hollande is not just anybody. Recall that ‘everyone needs their hair done, no?’ Stephane Le Foll, the government spokesman, said after the weekly cabinet meeting at the Elysee Palace Wednesday in Paris. ‘I can understand people’s questions, I can understand their judgments. He’s not just anybody, that’s all.’
Cited by Bloomberg, Hollande continued his bashing of Trump, adding that ‘in the U. S., one of the world’s great democracies, maybe the greatest democracy, where democracy was born, before the French one, we see some excesses that are sickening,’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 3, 2016.