Here’s Why Existing Home Sales Are In Unsustainable Path

The NAR reported a decline of 3.2% in existing home sales in July. This was the seasonally adjusted fudgepack number. It prompted the Dow Jones flagship Wall Street Journal to trumpet:
U. S. Existing Home Sales Fall for First Time Since February
I prefer to look at the actual data, using the annual rate of change as the basis for comparison. To see whether momentum is slowing or growing, we can compare the annual growth rate of the current month to recent past months. Actual sales in July fell by 6.7% year to year.
So far, so good.
However, there were calender factors involved. July 2015 had 22 business days available for closings versus only 20 in July of this year. While some of those closings would still have been squeezed into last month toward the end of the month, some adjustment to the number would be necessary. On that basis it’s likely that the number of closings on a rolling 4 week or 31 day basis would not have been materially different this year versus last year. Compared with a year to year change of 1.7% in June, it appears that the growth in sales volume has merely stalled, not plunged.
That is supported by the June year to year contract data, which the NAR calls ‘pending home sales.’ Contracts were flat in June. That would normally mean flat growth in closings in the ensuing month.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Lee Adler ‘ August 24, 2016.

Trump Slams Clinton Foundation As “Most Corrupt Enterprise In Political History” After Latest Donor Revelations

Yesterday’s report that more than half, or at least 85 of 154 people from private interests who met or spoke to Hillary Clinton while she led the State Department, donated at least $156 million to her family charity or pledged commitments with at least 16 foreign governments donating as much as $170 million, has become the latest goldmine for Donald Trump and Republicans who finally have a break in the anti-Trump news cycle to pounce on.
“It is now clear that the Clinton Foundation is the most corrupt enterprise in political history,” Trump said in a statement, reiterating a claim he made earlier in the week. “We’ve now learned that a majority of the non-government people she met with as secretary of state gave money to the corrupt Clinton Foundation. … It was wrong then, and it is wrong now — and the foundation must be shut down immediately.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 24, 2016.

Gerald Celente Predicts Trump Wins White House

The following video was published by Greg Hunter on Aug 23, 2016
On the 2016 election, a surprising turn around for Trump. Trends forecaster Gerald Celente explains, ‘We now forecast Trump will win. First, we had Clinton. Trump is his own worst enemy. . . . What’s going to determine the election, we believe, is the debates. These debates will determine it more than they did with Kennedy and Nixon. You are going to see viewer turnout on this break records, maybe even Super Bowl records. It’s going to come down to the debates if Trump doesn’t destroy himself and/or there is not a wild card event. In the absence of that, Trump has a shot at winning this.’

Media Worried Too Many Americans Will Question Legitimacy Of 2016 Election, Blame Trump

2016 is the year many, many Americans began to question whether or not our elections, and to a lesser extent, our democracy (insert ‘it’s a constitutional republic, big difference!’ here) are rigged. As I’ve argued many times in the past year, there is plenty of evidence suggesting these skeptical Americans are, indeed, onto something with their suspicions.
But the corporate media has come out in defense of America’s ‘democracy’ – and political elites are defending the system, too. In the wake of Trump’s recent rhetoric regarding the ‘rigged’ system, the ruling class of the United States is peddling the fiction that somehow Trump’s irresponsible sensationalism is solely to blame for the newfound feelings of illegitimacy plaguing our elections.
Take, for example, Monday’s POLITICO piece entitled ‘What if Trump won’t accept defeat?’:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 23, 2016.

Whirled Politics: Would you rather be Trumped or Pillaried?

I’ve never seen anything so surreal as the United States’ current political circus of unelectable and undelectable candidates offered as each party’s top of the crop. I can’t stop wondering if the Trump is Clinton’s decoy, gathering all the Republiducks into one place so the Democats can slaughter them. Yet, as surely as Trump looks like he’s trying to throw the election, Hillary looks like she’s going to fall over unconscious from a brain aneurysm on the dawn of election day … or on midnight after the votes are in and counted, depending on which conspiracy you like best.
Equally weird is the certain fact that the Democrat’s Chosen One was assured her party’s worship through inside engineering. I’m not surprised such maneuvering happens inside political parties but that, after it came fully into the open, Hillary seems more likely to win.
That she was able to take the Democrat who was most to blame (and who resigned because of it) and raise her quite publicly and immediately to the top of her campaign goes to show how voters believe this is just the way party politics works all the time. Hillary made that move openly, knowing that most people in her party couldn’t care less about such things. She even got a big bump in popularity after the move. That’s how little such shenanigans mattered to her supporters.
The Trump – What a card!
That the irony is everywhere is unsettling. If I were writing a novel, I couldn’t pick a better name for an unlikable, self-aggrandizing, megalomaniac presidential candidate than ‘Trump.’ He has the sole virtue of sounding anti-establishment at a time when people crave a strongman who can save the nation from its own craven greed now that it has lived for decades above its means.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 23 August 2016.

Jeff Gundlach Explains Why He Is Now “100% Net Short”

In his latest interview on RealVision conducted last Friday, Doubleline’s Jeff Gundlach recapped the major points of his relatively bearish worldview, which are increasingly prioritizing political risk, with the ‘T-word’ now a factor for stocks, as the election gets closer and the potential for a President Trump.
Gundlach has been calling a Trump victory since the start and he outlines the likely market impact, as well as an economic bounce from the fiscal stimulus and the bond market shenanigans that might follow. With a long term need for l governments to really tackle the global debt problem against the backdrop of entitlement, the only play for serious investors here is defensive and Gundlach is more focused on where he can make money and for that he has the gold miners in his sights.
Here is a brief summary of his key points:
Trump is elected, leading to more debt, and an even greater fiscal stimulus: “I think Trump’s going to win largely because there are many, many– people have used the Brexit analogy and I think it’s apt. Where people were almost afraid to say that they were for Brexit and then they ended up voting for it… Trump is the gateway to fiscal stimulus. He’s absolutely promising to build roads and airports and walls, and I have observed that one thing I think we all know is that Mr. Trump is pretty comfortable with debt.” Negative interest rates damage the real economy as they require higher savings, and are deflationary: “You want to fight deflation with deflation. But they don’t seem to understand that you do not increase consumption with negative interest rates, at least for a significant fraction of the population. You increase savings, and you necessitate savings because the 60-year-old man that wants to retire at age 70– maybe an old school thought– I need to save a million dollars and maybe I can make 5%, $50,000 a year. Little social security if I get it. I can get by.” On the downside risk return skew in holding Treasuries, which may go from 1.25% to 1.00%, versus making 10% on gold miners: “If you go 1% on Treasuries, you’ll make about three points on the 10-year. That happens over the course of a year, you make 4.3%. I just think there’s a lot of ways of higher probability of making 5% or 6% through rank speculations on volatile asset classes. Like at this point, I would even add gold miners. I actually said this in an interview with Barron’s on June 27, I think it was.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 22, 2016.

EU Globalists are About to have their Doors KICKED Down!

A Very Bad Year for Globalism
2016 is one of the worst years for the globalist agenda in decades. Think about it: first Trump wrecked most of their US candidates, then Brexit tore the EU plutocrats a new orifice, and there’s still over 4 months left to go!
Every time that globalism has been defeated, it has been at the hands of nationalist and populist revolts among the ‘peasantry’, and another such defeat is now looming for them in Europe, and they know it! In today’s article I’ll tell you what will likely happen in their next defeat, and what’s more, I’ll give you the date on which it will occur.

This post was published at The Wealth Watchman on AUGUST 22, 2016.

“Regretful” Trump Reaches Out To Latino Leaders: “No, I Am Not Flip-Flopping”

Donald Trump exclaimed “I’m not flip-flopping on immigration, we want to come up with a really fair but firm answer,” this morning after meeting with his newly announced Hispanic advisory council this weekend in an effort to figure out a ‘humane and efficient’ manner to deal with immigrants in the country illegally.
It appears Trump’s pivot at the end of last week – showing a softer, seemingly apologetic “regretful” side – is continuing, having told black Americans “what have you got to lose”…
Black Americans – who appear hell bent on electing four more years of Obamanomics – have seen black income inequality soar and black youth unemployment unchanged since the first black president came to office…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 22, 2016.

“It’s Not Some Barbarous Relic” – Trump Adviser Urges Return To Gold Standard

Q&A with Dr. Judy Shelton, the only female economist advising the Trump campaign.
Donald Trump is no policy wonk.
He is pitching himself as the best man for the presidency based on his track record as businessman, and his ability to surround himself with the ‘best’ people – not on his knack for writing white papers. This, of course, means that it is important for voters to understand whom he is surrounding himself with, and what sort of ideas they hold.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 21, 2016.

Trump Protesters Turn Violent In Minneapolis: Jump On Motorcade; Spit On Donors

Protestes at a Trump fundraiser at the Minneapolis Convention Center grew violent overnight as “some fundraiser attendees were pushed and jostled, spit on and verbally harassed as they left the convention center” according to the Star Tribune. Trump’s fundraiser got off to a late start as he made a last-minute stop in Louisiana to survey damages from the recent flooding.
The demonstration was organized by the Minnesota Immigrants Rights Action Committee. One protester was quoted as saying:
‘You’ve got somebody out there saying things that used to only be said in the shadows. I think what he’s saying represents something pretty dangerous for our country.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 20, 2016.

Central Bank Intervention Against the Dollar

In the first six months of the year, the raw data has shown that several central banks have been selling US government bonds in an attempt to support their currencies against the dollar. This has come in part at the request of the United States, exactly as took place back in 1985 at the Plaza Accord. The United States has a strikingly different view as to currency value. You even hear Trump calling China a currency manipulator because they have seen a declining currency. He does not view that this has been a global trend. Nonetheless, European central banks see a weak current as a weakness politically and thus want a high valued currency.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Aug 19, 2016.

3 Out 5 Texans Support Secession If Hillary Wins Presidency

In a shocking testament to just how divided our politics have become, a new Texas poll from Public Policy Polling shows that 60% of Trump supporters in Texas would support secession from the United States if Hillary wins the White House. This comes as Hillary’s unfavorable ratings among Trump supporters were a “disappointing” 99% and despite the fact that the poll also finds that Trump is only leading the state, a typical Republican stronghold, by 6 points. That said, perhaps the most shocking takeaway from the poll was that “Deez Nuts” and the dead gorilla “Harambe” are surging among undecided voters with current support at 25%.
On the upside, only 18% of Hillary supporters would support secession if Hillary wins.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 17, 2016.

Million Dollar Bounty Offered For Hillary’s “True” Health Records

As questions abound over Hillary’s “mental and physical stamina,” the Clinton campaign has come out swinging blasting any concerns over the presidential candidate’s strange behaviors as “deranged conspiracy theories” adding that Trump was “simply parroting lies.” But, if the Clinton campaign thought they could brush this off with their media pals’ help, think again as TruePundit is offering an unprecedented reward of $1 Million (One Million Dollars US) for Clinton’s true medical records.
As we noted previously, as the presidential campaign enters its final stages, probing questions have emerged about the health condition of Hillary Clinton.
Hillary’ bizarre, erratic behavior on the campaign trail (culminating with last week’s perplexing “short-circuit” comment) has left many wondering whether she is seriously ill. Hillary has at multiple times had convulsions that appear to be seizures on camera, including a series of seemingly inexplicable coughing fits.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 17, 2016.

What, Me Worry?

As we contemplate the upcoming U. S. presidential election one of our chief investment related concerns is the potential for the election results to roil markets. Strangely, the equity markets trade as if the election results, be it a Clinton or Trump victory, are inconsequential for share prices. That stance is greatly at odds with what many of us think, as well as the palpable anxiety voiced by many traditional and social media outlets.
In prior articles, including our most recent ‘Mm Mm Good’, we discussed economic and market distortions caused by extraordinary central bank monetary policy. In this instance we focus on a behavioral distortion that is, also, partially a result of central bank policy, actions and words.
Bad News is Good News
The BREXIT vote in the United Kingdom was feared to have negative consequences for the financial markets if U. K. voters favored exiting the European Union (EU). As we now know, the ‘leave’ votes won despite the vast majority of polls predicting a ‘stay’ victory right up to the end. Following the surprising result, stock markets behaved as expected, with most markets around the world plummeting. Within days, however, markets snapped back, and after only a couple of weeks, many had not only fully recovered but some had actually risen above pre-vote levels.
This abnormal behavior is something that has become common place in the last few years. The market has coined this type of market reaction ‘bad news is good news’. From both a logical and a fundamental view it is senseless, unless one considers why the market thinks bad news is good news.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on August 17, 2016.

Trump Mortgage Was A Victim of The Perfect (Credit) Storm

Donald Trump started a mortgage company back in early 2006 named, of course, Trump Mortgage. According to Trump himself: ‘I think it’s a great time to start a mortgage company,’ Trump told a CNBC interviewer in April 2006, adding that ‘the real estate market is going to be very strong for a long time to come.’
Unfortunately for Trump, his mortgage company did not last very long. In 2007, Trump Mortgage folded operations and Trump licensed his name to First Meridian Mortgage. What happened?
Let’s look at the economic information facing The Donald and his staff during the first half of 2006. when they decided to enter the prime and jumbo residential real estate market (as well as small-balance commercial loans up to $2 million).
First, nationally home prices were still rising (white line).

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on August 16, 2016.

What? Me Worry? Volatility & The Election

As we contemplate the upcoming U. S. presidential election one of our chief investment related concerns is the potential for the election results to roil markets. Strangely, the equity markets trade as if the election results, be it a Clinton or Trump victory, are inconsequential for share prices. That stance is greatly at odds with what many of us think, as well as the palpable anxiety voiced by many traditional and social media outlets.
In prior articles, including our most recent ‘Mm Mm Good’, we discussed economic and market distortions caused by extraordinary central bank monetary policy. In this instance we focus on a behavioral distortion that is, also, partially a result of central bank policy, actions and words.
Bad News is Good News The BREXIT vote in the United Kingdom was feared to have negative consequences for the financial markets if U. K. voters favored exiting the European Union (EU). As we now know, the ‘leave’ votes won despite the vast majority of polls predicting a ‘stay’ victory right up to the end. Following the surprising result, stock markets behaved as expected, with most markets around the world plummeting. Within days, however, markets snapped back, and after only a couple of weeks, many had not only fully recovered but some had actually risen above pre-vote levels.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 17, 2016.

RBC adds $200 to Gold forecast

Gold has been treading water above the $1,340 an ounce level recently, coming off two-year highs hit earlier in August. Year to date the metal has gained almost 26% or more than $280 an ounce.
It’s been gold best first half run since 1980 when the price hit an all-time high on an inflation adjust basis. The rally has surprised many analysts and at the start of the year the vast majority of investment and institutional analysts predicted gold would dip below $1,000 during the course of the year and average below last year’s uninspiring $1,160 an ounce.
Many gold bears have now changed course and some of the big bullion banks including UBS now sees $1,400 before the end of the year, as does French bank Natixis (which predicted last year’s gold price down to the dollar).
‘The next gold bull market is under way, and any weakness is viewed as a buying opportunity’
Credit Suisse and BofA Merrill Lynch have it even higher at $1,500 going into 2017. Dutch bank ABN Amro, another erstwhile ultra-bearish house, revised its forecast to $1,425, adding that a Trump presidency could really see things explode.

This post was published at TruthinGold on August 17, 2016.

Why Neocons Can’t Stomach Trump

Bill Kristol is downright despondent after his failed search for an alternative to Donald Trump. Max Boot is indignant about his ‘stupid’ party’s willingness to ride a bragging bull into a delicate China policy shop. And the leading light of the first family of military interventionism – Robert Kagan – is actually lining up neoconservatives behind the Democratic nominee for president of the United States.
At the same time, the Democrats have become the party of bare-knuckled, full-throated American Exceptionalism. That transformation was announced with a vein-popping zeal by retired general and wannabe motivation screamer John Allen at the Democratic convention in the City of Brotherly Love. During his ‘speech,’ a few plaintive protests of ‘no more war’ were actually drowned-out by Democrats chanting ‘USA-USA-USA!’
This is the same Democratic Party often criticized by Kagan & Co. as the purveyors of timidity, flaccidity, and moral perfidy. It’s not that Democrats haven’t dropped bombs, dealt arms and overturned regimes. They have. And they’ve even got the Peace Prize-winning Obama-dropper to prove it. But unlike enthusiastically belligerent Republicans, the Dems are supposed to be the party that does it, but doesn’t really like to do it.
But now, they’ve got Hillary Clinton. And she’s weaponized the State Department. She really likes regime change. And her nominating convention not only embraced the military, but it sanctified the very Gold Star families that neocon-style interventionism creates. It certainly created the pain of the Khan family who lost their son in the illegal war in Iraq. But the Dems didn’t mention that sad fact as they grabbed the flag away from the Republicans.

This post was published at Lew Rockwell on August 12, 2016.

Guest Post: Clinton Foundation & Crooked Hillary in More Trouble

IRD Note: I am not a Trump supporter or advocate. In fact, once again I’ll maintain my streak of not voting in any election of any kind since the 1992 election. Your vote does not matter other than it perpetuates a completely corrupted political system that no longer bears any characteristics of having even been a Constitutional democracy.


This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on August 14, 2016.