Gold Price Forecast for 2015: Positive Gold Outlook Ahead

The gold outlook for 2015 has, so far, been dull, but considering external factors, things could turn around for gold prices in 2015.
Economic Drivers Affecting Gold Price Forecast for 2015
Between 2001 and 2011, the price of gold soared more than 600% to $1,923 per ounce. Despite the poor performance of gold since then (trading near $1,200), economic and supply/demand factors suggest a bullish gold price forecast for 2015, with a turnaround for gold prices expected in the second half of the year and into 2016.
The decline in gold prices from $1,900 an ounce to the $1,200 level is a result of improving economic indicators, low interest rates, and investors turning their attention to better-performing assetsnamely the stock market. Since the beginning of 2012, the price of gold has fallen 25%. During the same timeframe, the S&P 500 has climbed 67%.
But there is a seeming disconnect between the stock market and gold prices. On one hand, the stock market is moving higher on historically high valuations. At the same time, demand for gold is increasing while supply is static; but for some reason, gold prices remain dull.
But all of that could change

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Stock Picking Record of Gregory Mannarino

Gregory Mannarino has been very active in providing citizens with an alternative view on the state of the global economy. And although these views have probably been much more accurate than those coming from the main-stream media outlets, Gregory’s stock picking may not have been. On his Traderschoice.net web site, Gregory publishes stock picks, showing Long and Short lists. The freely viewable stock listings are placed on the page and easy to view. We were curious as to the validity of Gregory’s glorious claims of his own stock-picking performance. So we decided to track his progress during a 6-month period starting in June, 2014. The following list comprises those stock picks that were published on the Traderschoice.net web site in the last 6 months of 2014. The performance of each pick is measured from the time it appeared on the web site’s Long or Short list to the time it was removed from the site. (Of course, Gregory will be the first to tell you that just because he takes the pick off the site, doesn’t necessarily mean he is advising a closure of the position. And to be completely fair, we did not track the performance of the related options, which was apparently the trading vehicle that was actually used, according to the website.) Nevertheless, the following results may be interesting.

    Traderschoice.net – Stock-Picks from May 29, 2014 to December 30, 2014

TradersChoice Buy CAT 93.640 (12/23) – 92.670 (12/30 @ 11:14) (-0.970 or -1.036%; Performance: -1.036%)
TradersChoice Buy AMZN 300.120 (12/19) – 305.320 (12/23 @ 11:14) (5.200 or 1.733%; Performance: 1.733%)
TradersChoice Sell SPY 205.230 (12/10) – 206.240 (12/19 @ 11:14) (1.010 or 0.492%; Performance: -0.492%)
TradersChoice Buy YHOO 51.150 (12/5) – 50.180 (12/10 @ 11:14) (-0.970 or -1.896%; Performance: -1.896%)
TradersChoice Buy MMM 162.000 (12/3) – 159.410 (12/9 @ 11:14) (-2.590 or -1.599%; Performance: -1.599%)
TradersChoice Buy GOOGL 541.690 (12/4) – 531.990 (12/5 @ 13:14) (-9.700 or -1.791%; Performance: -1.791%)
TradersChoice Buy SPY 207.210 (12/2) – 207.620 (12/4 @ 15:14) (0.410 or 0.198%; Performance: 0.198%)
TradersChoice Sell DIA 177.390 (12/1) – 178.700 (12/2 @ 15:14) (1.310 or 0.738%; Performance: -0.738%)
TradersChoice Buy AIG 54.340 (11/20) – 54.050 (12/1 @ 11:14) (-0.290 or -0.534%; Performance: -0.534%)
TradersChoice Buy SLV 14.920 (11/11) – 14.830 (11/29 @ 7:14) (-0.090 or -0.603%; Performance: -0.603%)
TradersChoice Sell UNH 91.060 (10/23) – 96.890 (11/21 @ 15:14) (5.830 or 6.402%; Performance: -6.402%)
TradersChoice Sell GS 190.420 (11/6) – 188.990 (11/20 @ 13:14) (-1.430 or -0.751%; Performance: 0.751%)
TradersChoice Buy MSFT 43.620 (10/17) – 44.720 (10/23 @ 11:14) (1.100 or 2.522%; Performance: 2.522%)
TradersChoice Buy T 33.950 (10/17) – 33.630 (10/23 @ 11:14) (-0.320 or -0.943%; Performance: -0.943%)
TradersChoice Buy DIA 166.380 (10/10) – 161.070 (10/15 @ 11:14) (-5.310 or -3.191%; Performance: -3.191%)
TradersChoice Buy QCOM 74.780 (09/29) – 72.110 (10/15 @ 11:14) (-2.670 or -3.570%; Performance: -3.570%)
TradersChoice Buy XLF 23.170 (09/29) – 22.060 (10/15 @ 11:14) (-1.110 or -4.791%; Performance: -4.791%)
TradersChoice Buy INTC 34.730 (09/24) – 34.790 (09/29 @ 13:14) (0.060 or 0.173%; Performance: 0.173%)
TradersChoice Buy AA 15.790 (09/24) – 15.870 (09/29 @ 13:14) (0.080 or 0.507%; Performance: 0.507%)
TradersChoice Buy GILD 107.920 (09/24) – 107.100 (09/26 @ 11:14) (-0.820 or -0.760%; Performance: -0.760%)
TradersChoice Sell PG 84.210 (09/18) – 84.890 (09/24 @ 11:14) (0.680 or 0.808%; Performance: -0.808%)
TradersChoice Buy XLE 92.440 (09/23) – 91.260 (09/24 @ 11:14) (-1.180 or -1.277%; Performance: -1.277%)
TradersChoice Sell CL 65.270 (09/18) – 66.180 (09/24 @ 11:14) (0.910 or 1.394%; Performance: -1.394%)
TradersChoice Sell AAPL 101.970 (09/19) – 100.890 (09/22 @ 13:14) (-1.080 or -1.059%; Performance: 1.059%)
TradersChoice Buy AA 16.300 (09/17) – 15.920 (09/22 @ 13:14) (-0.380 or -2.331%; Performance: -2.331%)
TradersChoice Buy HD 91.000 (09/5) – 91.950 (09/18 @ 13:14) (0.950 or 1.044%; Performance: 1.044%)
TradersChoice Buy M 59.790 (09/15) – 60.630 (09/17 @ 17:14) (0.840 or 1.405%; Performance: 1.405%)
TradersChoice Buy KORS 76.800 (09/5) – 76.050 (09/17 @ 13:14) (-0.750 or -0.977%; Performance: -0.977%)
TradersChoice Buy AAPL 98.840 (09/8) – 101.870 (09/15 @ 15:14) (3.030 or 3.066%; Performance: 3.066%)
TradersChoice Buy GOOGL 585.950 (09/2) – 601.390 (09/8 @ 13:14) (15.440 or 2.635%; Performance: 2.635%)
TradersChoice Buy SLV 18.690 (08/21) – 18.330 (09/2 @ 13:14) (-0.360 or -1.926%; Performance: -1.926%)
TradersChoice Sell PG 82.810 (08/19) – 82.780 (09/2 @ 13:14) (-0.030 or -0.036%; Performance: 0.036%)
TradersChoice Buy VXX 27.550 (08/19) – 27.730 (08/21 @ 13:14) (0.180 or 0.653%; Performance: 0.653%)
TradersChoice Sell NFLX 467.170 (08/19) – 472.470 (08/20 @ 13:14) (5.300 or 1.134%; Performance: -1.134%)
TradersChoice Buy IP 47.870 (08/14) – 47.760 (08/19 @ 13:14) (-0.110 or -0.230%; Performance: -0.230%)
TradersChoice Buy JPM 56.890 (08/14) – 57.620 (08/19 @ 13:14) (0.730 or 1.283%; Performance: 1.283%)
TradersChoice Buy PFE 28.760 (08/14) – 28.960 (08/19 @ 13:14) (0.200 or 0.695%; Performance: 0.695%)
TradersChoice Sell PG 81.740 (08/14) – 81.980 (08/14 @ 15:14) (0.240 or 0.294%; Performance: -0.294%)
TradersChoice Sell VXX 33.170 (08/1) – 29.890 (08/13 @ 17:14) (-3.280 or -9.888%; Performance: 9.888%)
TradersChoice Buy MCD 93.480 (08/12) – 93.960 (08/13 @ 17:14) (0.480 or 0.513%; Performance: 0.513%)
TradersChoice Buy INTC 33.060 (08/6) – 34.100 (08/13 @ 17:14) (1.040 or 3.146%; Performance: 3.146%)
TradersChoice Buy RIG 39.570 (08/11) – 39.160 (08/12 @ 15:14) (-0.410 or -1.036%; Performance: -1.036%)
TradersChoice Buy CAT 103.980 (07/28) – 104.720 (08/11 @ 11:14) (0.740 or 0.712%; Performance: 0.712%)
TradersChoice Buy BA 120.860 (08/5) – 118.260 (08/6 @ 13:14) (-2.600 or -2.151%; Performance: -2.151%)
TradersChoice Buy V 214.940 (07/29) – 210.240 (08/5 @ 15:14) (-4.700 or -2.187%; Performance: -2.187%)
TradersChoice Buy F 17.360 (07/30) – 16.790 (08/5 @ 15:14) (-0.570 or -3.283%; Performance: -3.283%)
TradersChoice Buy YUM 74.180 (07/28) – 70.100 (08/1 @ 13:14) (-4.080 or -5.500%; Performance: -5.500%)
TradersChoice Buy ALL 56.740 (07/30) – 59.260 (07/31 @ 11:14) (2.520 or 4.441%; Performance: 4.441%)
TradersChoice Buy T 35.670 (07/28) – 37.010 (07/29 @ 11:14) (1.340 or 3.757%; Performance: 3.757%)
TradersChoice Buy MRK 58.190 (07/23) – 58.150 (07/25 @ 17:14) (-0.040 or -0.069%; Performance: -0.069%)
TradersChoice Buy LO 61.190 (07/16) – 60.730 (07/25 @ 17:14) (-0.460 or -0.752%; Performance: -0.752%)
TradersChoice Buy BAX 76.720 (07/22) – 76.650 (07/25 @ 17:14) (-0.070 or -0.091%; Performance: -0.091%)
TradersChoice Buy GM 37.650 (07/22) – 36.060 (07/24 @ 11:14) (-1.590 or -4.223%; Performance: -4.223%)
TradersChoice Buy XLNX 48.300 (07/21) – 48.590 (07/22 @ 11:14) (0.290 or 0.600%; Performance: 0.600%)
TradersChoice Buy BBY 29.700 (07/17) – 30.850 (07/22 @ 11:14) (1.150 or 3.872%; Performance: 3.872%)
TradersChoice Sell VLO 49.260 (07/17) – 48.860 (07/18 @ 15:14) (-0.400 or -0.812%; Performance: 0.812%)
TradersChoice Buy JNJ 105.250 (07/14) – 100.660 (07/17 @ 15:14) (-4.590 or -4.361%; Performance: -4.361%)
TradersChoice Sell DD 64.580 (07/15) – 65.000 (07/16 @ 15:14) (0.420 or 0.650%; Performance: -0.650%)
TradersChoice Buy CVX 129.140 (07/14) – 130.650 (07/16 @ 11:14) (1.510 or 1.169%; Performance: 1.169%)
TradersChoice Sell AA 16.130 (07/14) – 16.120 (07/15 @ 17:14) (-0.010 or -0.062%; Performance: 0.062%)
TradersChoice Buy EMN 86.730 (07/10) – 86.790 (07/14 @ 13:14) (0.060 or 0.069%; Performance: 0.069%)
TradersChoice Buy CBS 61.390 (07/10) – 60.890 (07/14 @ 13:14) (-0.500 or -0.814%; Performance: -0.814%)
TradersChoice Buy BA 129.090 (07/7) – 129.990 (07/14 @ 11:14) (0.900 or 0.697%; Performance: 0.697%)
TradersChoice Buy VZ 49.760 (07/7) – 49.470 (07/10 @ 15:14) (-0.290 or -0.583%; Performance: -0.583%)
TradersChoice Buy TXN 48.880 (07/7) – 49.280 (07/9 @ 17:14) (0.400 or 0.818%; Performance: 0.818%)
TradersChoice Sell ROST 66.600 (07/7) – 66.930 (07/8 @ 17:14) (0.330 or 0.495%; Performance: -0.495%)
TradersChoice Sell CBI 69.040 (07/3) – 68.640 (07/7 @ 13:14) (-0.400 or -0.579%; Performance: 0.579%)
TradersChoice Sell XLF 23.040 (07/3) – 22.890 (07/7 @ 13:14) (-0.150 or -0.651%; Performance: 0.651%)
TradersChoice Buy M 58.670 (06/27) – 58.710 (07/2 @ 11:14) (0.040 or 0.068%; Performance: 0.068%)
TradersChoice Sell ESRX 69.060 (07/1) – 68.710 (07/2 @ 11:14) (-0.350 or -0.507%; Performance: 0.507%)
TradersChoice Buy GE 26.650 (06/23) – 26.540 (07/2 @ 11:14) (-0.110 or -0.413%; Performance: -0.413%)
TradersChoice Buy LUV 27.140 (06/27) – 27.750 (07/1 @ 15:14) (0.610 or 2.248%; Performance: 2.248%)
TradersChoice Buy CL 68.150 (06/24) – 68.430 (06/27 @ 17:14) (0.280 or 0.411%; Performance: 0.411%)
TradersChoice Buy DLPH 67.500 (06/25) – 68.160 (06/26 @ 17:14) (0.660 or 0.978%; Performance: 0.978%)
TradersChoice Sell LULU 41.110 (06/24) – 41.290 (06/25 @ 13:14) (0.180 or 0.438%; Performance: -0.438%)
TradersChoice Sell SWN 46.830 (06/18) – 45.960 (06/24 @ 17:14) (-0.870 or -1.858%; Performance: 1.858%)
TradersChoice Sell VLO 57.660 (06/23) – 55.990 (06/24 @ 17:14) (-1.670 or -2.896%; Performance: 2.896%)
TradersChoice Buy FLR 78.520 (06/20) – 77.030 (06/24 @ 13:14) (-1.490 or -1.898%; Performance: -1.898%)
TradersChoice Buy VXX 29.270 (06/19) – 29.010 (06/23 @ 15:14) (-0.260 or -0.888%; Performance: -0.888%)
TradersChoice Sell DDD 53.970 (06/18) – 54.700 (06/23 @ 11:14) (0.730 or 1.353%; Performance: -1.353%)
TradersChoice Buy YHOO 34.650 (06/19) – 34.080 (06/20 @ 15:14) (-0.570 or -1.645%; Performance: -1.645%)
TradersChoice Buy CAT 107.250 (06/19) – 108.980 (06/20 @ 11:14) (1.730 or 1.613%; Performance: 1.613%)
TradersChoice Buy COST 115.410 (06/18) – 116.260 (06/19 @ 17:14) (0.850 or 0.737%; Performance: 0.737%)
TradersChoice Buy KORS 89.740 (06/18) – 88.590 (06/19 @ 13:14) (-1.150 or -1.281%; Performance: -1.281%)
TradersChoice Buy DD 67.940 (06/16) – 67.740 (06/17 @ 15:14) (-0.200 or -0.294%; Performance: -0.294%)
TradersChoice Buy MMM 143.180 (06/16) – 143.670 (06/17 @ 15:14) (0.490 or 0.342%; Performance: 0.342%)
TradersChoice Buy MS 31.670 (06/16) – 32.490 (06/17 @ 13:14) (0.820 or 2.589%; Performance: 2.589%)
TradersChoice Buy ORCL 42.130 (06/16) – 42.600 (06/17 @ 13:14) (0.470 or 1.116%; Performance: 1.116%)
TradersChoice Buy CTSH 47.400 (06/11) – 47.730 (06/16 @ 15:14) (0.330 or 0.696%; Performance: 0.696%)
TradersChoice Buy ALTR 33.920 (06/10) – 34.350 (06/16 @ 13:14) (0.430 or 1.268%; Performance: 1.268%)
TradersChoice Buy KORS 94.330 (06/10) – 91.280 (06/16 @ 13:14) (-3.050 or -3.233%; Performance: -3.233%)
TradersChoice Sell DIA 168.170 (06/5) – 168.300 (06/11 @ 15:14) (0.130 or 0.077%; Performance: -0.077%)
TradersChoice Buy VXX 30.550 (06/6) – 30.770 (06/11 @ 13:14) (0.220 or 0.720%; Performance: 0.720%)
TradersChoice Sell SWN 46.290 (06/9) – 44.930 (06/10 @ 11:14) (-1.360 or -2.938%; Performance: 2.938%)
TradersChoice Buy CSCO 24.910 (06/6) – 24.990 (06/10 @ 11:14) (0.080 or 0.321%; Performance: 0.321%)
TradersChoice Sell SWN 46.500 (06/6) – 46.040 (06/6 @ 15:14) (-0.460 or -0.989%; Performance: 0.989%)
TradersChoice Sell NBL 71.980 (06/4) – 73.880 (06/6 @ 13:14) (1.900 or 2.640%; Performance: -2.640%)
TradersChoice Buy SLV 17.980 (05/30) – 18.320 (06/5 @ 13:14) (0.340 or 1.891%; Performance: 1.891%)
TradersChoice Buy VXX 33.560 (05/29) – 31.880 (06/5 @ 13:14) (-1.680 or -5.006%; Performance: -5.006%)
TradersChoice Sell QQQ 91.230 (05/29) – 92.320 (06/5 @ 13:14) (1.090 or 1.195%; Performance: -1.195%)
TradersChoice Sell AMTD 30.290 (05/29) – 30.250 (06/4 @ 11:14) (-0.040 or -0.132%; Performance: 0.132%)
Average Performance -0.113%

 

Russia Dumping US Treasuries? But Why the Heck in Belgium?

Belgium is known for its surprises. For example, it got by amazingly well for a couple of years without a national government, and without breaking apart, to the endless chagrin of a lot of people. And it has a great variety of delicious beers, which I amply tested during the three years I was there. But now, that tiny country with a tiny economy is suddenly piling up a mountain of US Treasuries.

In March, according to new data from the US Treasury Department, it added another $40.2 billion to its existing mountain of Treasuries, now at the dizzying height of $381.4 billion, or 79% of GDP!

Read more …

The Retail Death Rattle

A stunning, must-read dose of economic reality entitled, The Retail Death Rattle, is posted over at The Burning Platform.

Excerpt: The entire economic recovery storyline is a sham built upon easy money funneled by the Fed to the Too Big To Trust Wall Street banks so they can use their HFT supercomputers to drive the stock market higher, buy up the millions of homes they foreclosed upon to artificially drive up home prices, and generate profits through rigging commodity, currency, and bond markets, while reducing loan loss reserves because they are free to value their toxic assets at anything they please – compliments of the spineless nerds at the FASB. GDP has been artificially propped up by the Federal government through the magic of EBT cards, SSDI for the depressed and downtrodden, never ending extensions of unemployment benefits, billions in student loans to University of Phoenix prodigies, and subprime auto loans to deadbeats from the Government Motors financing arm – Ally Financial (85% owned by you the taxpayer). The country is being kept afloat on an ocean of debt and delusional belief in the power of central bankers to steer this ship through a sea of icebergs just below the surface.

Read the entire post at The Burning Platform.

Glenn Beck on Germany’s [Rehypothecated] Gold

Glenn Beck reviews Germany’s early 2013 request to repatriate 300 tonnes of gold held by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and then asks why the Fed responded with a pledge to return the gold in 7 years.  If the gold exists, it should be a simple matter of shipping logistics.  But 7 years?  Beck goes on to logically speculate that the gold doesn’t, in fact, exist.  The gold that the Fed has so far returned, is not the original bars first delivered to the US from Germany some 70 years ago. They are newly recast bars.  Could it be that the original gold was long ago rehypothecated, in order to maintain the illusion of a strong dollar?  Beck believes it’s even worse – that the Fed and other western central banks of the world have not only rehypothecated each other’s gold, but have even sold or transferred the physical gold to new owners.

One note of error: Beck says at one point in the video that the Fed reports holding about 6,700 tonnes of Germany’s gold. But this would be larger than Germany’s known gold reserves. As this chart shows, the Fed is only holding some 1,500 tonnes of Germany’s gold.

Jim Kunstler’s 2014 Forecast

Over at ZeroHedge, Jim Kunstler’s latest post on his forecast for 2014 is a MUST READ!!  Readers should greatly benefit from his astonishingly honest take on everything from the shale oil sham to last year’s gold slam.  He even gets into Obamacare, Bitcoin the Euro crisis and the middle east.

Excerpt: Paper and digital markets levitate, central banks pull out all the stops of their magical reality-tweaking machine to manipulate everything, accounting fraud pervades public and private enterprise, everything is mis-priced, all official statistics are lies of one kind or another, the regulating authorities sit on their hands, lost in raptures of online pornography (or dreams of future employment at Goldman Sachs), the news media sprinkles wishful-thinking propaganda about a mythical “recovery” and the “shale gas miracle” on a credulous public desperate to believe, the routine swindles of medicine get more cruel and blatant each month, a tiny cohort of financial vampire squids suck in all the nominal wealth of society, and everybody else is left whirling down the drain of posterity in a vortex of diminishing returns and scuttled expectations.

Read the entire article at ZeroHedge.

Peter Schiff: Fed Induced Phony Recovery is Bullish for Gold

Here’s Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital pointing out that the recent positive GDP numbers indicate that America is spending money – money that is just created by the Fed.  The GDP “is goosed.”   If the Fed decides to take all that easy money away, the propped up markets – stocks, housing, etc. – will collapse.  This, combined with the fact that most people don’t see the value of gold in this environment, makes Schiff even more bullish on the metal.

The Coming Reset & the Petrodollar System

Here are a few interesting videos by YouTube’s belangp. The first one shows how the US economy is not getting better as the government’s massaged statistics try to portray.  Instead, it’s so bad that only the Fed is left to buy up US debt as other nations are backing away.  Are the elite preparing for a global reset?

The second video explains how the petrodollar system is actually backed by gold.


And this third video explains further how gold flows between oil producers, bullion banks and miners. It also gives a great discussion regarding GOFO (Gold-Forward) rates and what they mean to the gold investor.

Jim Rickards: 2014 Expectations

In this audio clip from Physical Gold Fund, James Rickards of Tangent Capital talks about the Fed’s alternatives in 2014 and how they may carry out their tapering plans.  Rickards reviews the Fed’s actions, and how they’ve been unable to attain their specific goals, the forces of deflation versus inflation, as well as affects of nominal GDP growth in lieu of real GDP growth.  He also discusses gold and gives some interesting comments regarding why he holds it, how much of it should be a part of any investment portfolio, and its current trading environment  (specifically, that the current set-up could yield a major short-squeeze opportunity).  Listen to mp3 audio.

And in the following Bloomberg interview, Rickards talks more about gold and how even though 2013 has seen a bad year for the metal in paper terms, there is still major demand for obtaining gold in physical form.  Physical gold has been leaving the GLD ETF and going straight to China.  That the central banks have to drain the ETF in order to get the physical metal shows that there is very little of the stuff available elsewhere.  This is a must watch interview with James Rickards.




Catch 22 for the Gold Cartel Will Result in a Perfect Storm for Gold

The following video from peakresources.org explains how the gold price suppression schemes executed by the Gold Cartel (central banks) have succeeded in destroying the profitability of the miners, which means they will soon be closing down their projects and future gold supplies are at risk.  This is a catch-22 situation that can only mean much higher gold prices as remaining supplies are diminished.

Grant Williams: Wizened in Oz

Grant Williams, author of the newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm, reviews the results of the last decade of Central Bank activity – namely: Bubbles.  Bubbles are everywhere…. stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate.  But Williams goes on to explain how the central bankers are stuck.  There is no way out of this mess without severe pain.  They (the central bankers) have found themselves in a position where they can only talk about halting the easy money policies, but cannot actually do it without completely crashing the system.  He notes that Janet Yellen may indeed try to taper from $85 to $65 billion per month, but soon would have to re-engage more QE because the US economy is not strong enough on its own.

So what to do?  Williams recommends holding a lot of cash right now in order to take advantage of the situation coming after the crash.