Bill Blain: “There Is One Obvious Trigger That Could Lead To A Market Fall In The Second Half”

Politics – More Destabilizing Than You Think!
‘With comedy we can search for the profound…’
Dark skies, torrential rain and thinking about putting the log-burner on.. Welcome to high-summer in England. Markets are thin and the crowds trying to clamber on the train were noticeably lighter this morning. (Actually, the sun was shining this morning as my train sat listlessly somewhere ‘Sarf’ of Wimbledon..)
Don’t be fooled into thinking what’s happening today isn’t critical – events now are setting the tone for the rest of 2017. If you want a title for today’s Porridge – try: ‘Politics – More Important than you think!’
The big debate is between the Macro Panglossians and the Micro Worriers. There are those – those who believe the growing synchronous global recovery story will get even stronger, driven by positive economic factors: policy, low interest rates and low inflation. It’s difficult to fault their arguments in favour of a big secular shift into stocks, and to worry less about the bond markets as any rate increases will be limited. (If you buy into this scenario, you might want to think about how oversold the dollar might be..)

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 31, 2017.