‘Willing suspension of disbelief’ is defined as a willingness to suspend one’s critical faculties and believe the unbelievable; sacrifice of realism and logic for the sake of enjoyment. First off, I want to state upfront that there’s nothing enjoyable about the monthly non-farm payroll report unless you enjoy being subjected to brain damage.
Each month the Government asks us to suspend our critical faculties and accept the headline-reported number of new jobs created by the economy as well as the unemployment rate. Once again the Government did not disappoint, as it headline-flashed the alleged creation of 211,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.4%.
Unfortunately, for the mindless masses who consume fast-food style news from mainstream news sources, once the headline numbers are absorbed and the ‘experts’ reaffirm them with their idiotic psycho-babble, the numbers as reported miraculously become The Numbers.
To say that the latest non-farm payroll report stretches the ability to suspend one’s disbelief is an understatement. The Government wants us to believe that 211,000 new jobs were created in April – ‘seasonally adjusted,’ of course. A cursory glance reveals that 162,000 working age civilians decided to just leave the labor force, which explains the alleged decline in the unemployment rate. Either those folks who walked away were bequeathed with Social Security disability, took out a big student loan and enrolled for an online degree program at one of the many online universities or, most likely, their jobless benefits expired and they simply gave up looking for a job that pays more than minimum wage (Note: the latter explanation is supported by the recent spike up in auto loan, credit card and mortgage delinquency rates).
This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on May 5, 2017.
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