Consumers in Texas Begin to React

The worst plunge since the Financial Crisis
OK, this is anecdotal evidence supplied graciously by the Dallas Fed, via the comments in its Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. It’s how a business in ‘Professional, Scientific and Technical Services’ sees the Texas economy. There are other businesses that are doing well, and some of the comments confirm that. Not everyone is getting slammed. But….
We were up 7.5% for the year through March. April alone put us down 2% year to date. That is what is going on out here in the real world … dang little! We are a 56-year-old family-owned company that averages 17% growth per year.
This economy is in and headed deeper into the tank faster than all the talking heads can spin their silly data and metrics to portray the story most beneficial to whatever lines their pockets best today. That said, Texas and our commodity-driven markets may set us apart as some sort of dark anomaly.
The stories are now piling up of oil-bust contagion working its way deeper into the overall economy of oil-producing states, including Texas. Unlike some other oil producing states, Texas has a vast and diversified economy. So from the beginning, it was said that this time, the oil bust won’t hurt like it did last time; the pain would be contained in its isolated corner of the economy. But this theory is now falling apart. It comes on top of the weakness of the overall US economy.
And consumers are reacting.

This post was published at Wolf Street by Wolf Richter ‘ June 6, 2016.