I am a big fan of Nate Silver. He was spot on in the last two presidential elections and I bought into his methodology, in advance, confidently predicting the results.
Nate adjusted his odds as the campaign progressed and got 49 out of 50 correct in 2008.
I am not sure which one he missed, but I got 49 out 50 correct before Obama even won the nomination. Missouri showed me up.
Initially, my methodology was quite a bit different. I was certain the economy was headed for disaster and that every remotely close state would swing Democratic. It was that simple for me, but I became a huge fan of his methodology as the election campaign progressed.
Nate got all 50 right in 2012. I missed a couple. But I made my picks early in a bragging rights bet with friends. Had I predicted in the final week, I likely would have just gone with Silver’s picks or his methodology for the same outcome.
So yes, I am a fan. Yet, I have to say “Dear Nate, you are missing something big time!
This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on Thursday, December 10, 2015.
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