SWOT Analysis: Physical Gold Demand in India Looks Robust

Strengths
India imported 102 tonnes of gold between November 1 and November 15, just 48 tonnes shy of its total imports for the entire month of October. This data reveals a robust physical demand for gold in the country. Furthermore, India is looking to remove its 80/20 rule this week in order to free up gold flows into the country while eliminating distortions in the flows. Central banks have been under pressure in Europe to account for gold held abroad. The latest news comes from France, where Governor of the Bank of France M. Christian Noyer has been asked to comprehensively audit the nation’s gold reserves. Likewise, the Netherlands repatriated some of its gold in order to restore confidence in the central bank. The increase in proprietary holding of gold by central banks is positive for global gold demand. The Swiss will vote on the ‘Save Our Swiss Gold’ referendum on November 30. While the central bank has opposed the measure, which would require the bank to hold at least 20 percent of its reserves in gold domestically, considerable support exists. The central bank argues against the referendum on the grounds that gold is a volatile asset. However, equities and bonds are as well, especially in recent years. When the country’s currency was backed by a minimum of 40 percent gold, the central bank was still able to function properly, not like the hedge fund model that so many central banks employ today. If passed, the referendum should boost gold demand. Weaknesses
Four companies, along with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and HSBC Holdings PLC, are being sued over claims that they conspired for eight years to manipulate precious metals prices. The lawsuits join the club of numerous other attacks on financial companies.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 1 December 2014.

It Wasn’t The Swiss: Continuing Plunge In GOFO Means No Easing Of Worst Gold Shortage In Over A Decade

Yesterday, when we commented on what was largely a pre-determined outcome of the Swiss gold referendum, we said that there still “is the question of what happens to the tension in the gold swap market: as noted last week, the 1 Month GOFO rate had tumbled to the most negative in over a decade. It was not clear if this collateral gold squeeze was the result of Swiss referendum overhang or due to other reasons. The market’s reaction on Monday should answer those questions.”
Well, a few hours ago we got the GOFO update for the “day after” and the answer is clear: it wasn’t fear of the Swiss referendum after all because the 1 Month GOFO just crashed even deeper into negative territory with the entire curve through 6M now red, and with 12 month GOFO just 0.6 bps away from negative for the first time. At this rate, tomorrow’s update will suggest that big institutions expect the gold swap shortage to persist through the end of 2015!

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/01/2014.

Game On, Fools!

Bring it!
‘As we’ve spoken of before, these continued attacks upon silver and gold by the banking establishment, are necessary to break their mechanisms of control. Until they take silver’s price low enough to cut off enough new supply, they’ll be able to make deliveries for the foreseeable future, and thus maintain their price control. Remember, we need these folks to take the plunge over the cliff’s edge, so that everyone around the world who wants silver, at say $15, or $14, or $12, or whatever….cannot possibly all be fulfilled on the shrinking supplies being procured.
At that point, and that point only, will this lengthy campaign of attacks finally break and scatter. We might have already reached that price point, and simply be in the mode where we wait to see if they’ll have reached the wall that they can’t climb. It’s entirely possible though, that we’ll need to hit prices that are even lower for this to occur.’
Shield brothers, I wrote those words above on Sunday morning, because I felt in my gut, that this just wasn’t over. I still don’t think it’s over!
Last night as I went to bed, watching the silver and gold charts open back up, I knew it spelled fresh attacks! The Vampires had indeed dodged the Golden Dagger, and were thusly emboldened to come out in the night air, and feed among the unsuspecting….and that feeding climaxed all the way down to a $14.45 price point in silver!
I wrote my ‘Warning from the Watchman’ over a month ago, and every, single line I wrote in it still applies today.
Under normal circumstances, you might’ve expected a bottom by now….but brothers, hear me:
These are not ordinary circumstances! Something big is coming.
Oil plunged last week! Not just under $75, but under $70, and then down to near $65!! Check it out on this chart:
In 2008, I remember watching oil descend from its surreal heights at roughly $150 per barrel, and crash land at $30ish……3 or 4 times! But I can’t recall ever having seen $10 sliced from a barrel of West Texas Intermediate in 48 hours!
Saudi Arabia is desperate to keep their market share in oil! They’re cornered, and don’t care who else they may take down in this fight: they simply must undercut and destroy the fledgling U. S. shale oil upstarts! This fight is going to get even uglier as we go on, so be prepared for anything.

This post was published at The Wealth Watchman on DECEMBER 1, 2014.

Precious metals retest lows as Swiss vote on gold sends a false price signal as all Indian import restrictions suddenly end

Swiss voters yesterday resoundingly rejected a referendum to boost the role of gold in central bank reserves and ban exports. The price of gold headed back to $1,150 and silver fell below $15 an ounce. Traders said the rejection was expected and largely priced into the market.
The proposal stipulating the SNB raise the portion of its assets held in gold from eight per cent now was voted down by 77 per cent to 23 per cent. The initiative would have also prohibited the Swiss National Bank from ever selling any of its bullion and required the 30 per cent currently stored in Canada and the UK to be repatriated.
India votes for gold
Meanwhile, the world’s largest consumer of gold, India, has suddenly withdrawn all restrictions on the importing of gold, a major positive for precious metal prices almost entirely missed by most commentators as they focused on the Swiss referendum.
India’s 10 per cent import tax on gold and other restrictions was one of the major reasons for the post-2011 price collapse and this has now gone. Demand for gold will surge with prices at current levels. India is a far more important player in the gold market than Switzerland.
Polls forecast the initiative’s rejection after a strong campaign from the SNB. The referendum’s proponents perhaps overstated their case and made it easy for the ‘no’ campaign to ridicule them.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 1 December 2014.

Global Manufacturing PMI Tumbles To 14-Month Low

Is it any surprise oil prices are cratering? With global GDP expectations plumbing cycle lows, JPMorgan just confirmed the global slowdown is accelerating as their Global Manufacturing PMI printed 51.8 – its slowest level of ‘expansion’ since September 2013. New Orders fell to the lowest reading since July 2013 and New Export Orders to the lowest since June 2013.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/01/2014.

Is Bitcoin the Future?

Bitcoin is a topic of discussion almost everywhere I go. My introduction to Bitcoin came when I was speaking at a gold conference in Palm Springs and three bright-eyed, bushy-tailed college students approached me with a video camera and asked for my thoughts on Bitcoin. Noting my confusion, they began to evangelistically espouse the virtues of Bitcoin and tell me how it would save us from the evils of the Federal Reserve. I kept from rolling my eyes (you do want to encourage passion in the young) and mentioned a meeting that I had to go to – at that very moment as it turned out.

This post was published at Mauldin Economics on NOVEMBER 30, 2014.

Gold shortages so bad the spot price is meaningless as premiums reach 30-40%

When investors and the general public realize that the U. S. based Comex spot price for gold and other precious metals is a meaningless indicator, then demand for the monetary metals may eventually skyrocket as they are predicted to do, after this Sunday’s vote in Switzerland over a gold referendum and return to the gold standard. But until then, only major buyers of the metals know the dirty little secret that could be worth thousands or millions of dollars to the quick.
And that is, gold shortages are now so great that premiums for large purchases are upwards of 30-40% above the manipulated spot price that issues daily from the Comex and from London.
‘It is interesting to note that benchmark gold-dollar swap rates have recently traded negative, meaning investors are paying to borrow gold. This is unusual, as gold is traditionally used as a source of collateral for cash financing…. [A] number of factors may play a role, such as excess dollar liquidity or an increased demand for collateral on the back of the global regulatory developments.’

This post was published at The Daily Sheeple on November 30th, 2014.

The Swiss Gold Referendum Was Just A Storm In A Teacup

Results for Swiss gold referendum were released today, ending weeks of enthusiastic bulls calling for gold to rally to new highs on a ‘yes’ vote and countless articles speculating about the impact of the result. The Swiss people voted overwhelmingly against the policy of that would have caused the Swiss National Bank to significantly increase their gold reserves. However, the excitement and the speculation around the potential impact of the result represents a misunderstanding of the event and indeed, the gold market as a whole.
The chances of the proposal being passed in the first place were slim. The potential negative affect on the Swiss economy, the opposition from SNB and, as shown by the polling figures, the Swiss people, were all factors that made a rejection highly likely. However, even if one believed the contrary to these indications and that the Swiss would vote in favour of the proposed measures, why would that make them bullish on gold?
In the event that the Swiss voted to increase the gold reserves of the SNB, the added buying would have had very little impact on the gold price. The Swiss National Bank would have had five years to buy the necessary amount of gold, which estimates put at approximately 1500 tonnes. This means that the SNB could have simply bought 300 tonnes each year for the next five, which is actually a very small amount in terms of the global gold market.
To see that an extra 300 tonnes in demand would have had little effect on the gold price one need only look at China’s purchases in 2013. Last year the country bought close to 1200 tonnes of the yellow metal, which according to the China Gold Association was an increase of at least 300 tonnes. Over that period gold still fell by 28%, its worst year on record in over a quarter of a century. This means that in a situation that sees demand for gold rise by more than one could reasonably expect to see from the passing of the Swiss gold initiative that the price of gold still collapsed.

This post was published at Gold-Eagle on December 1, 2014.

Swiss Gold No – Repatriation, Demand from Russia, India and China More Important

With the CHF/EUR rate currently at the 1.20 mark, a line which the SNB has insisted it will defend, the immediate question for the financial markets is whether the Swiss Franc will now weaken slightly or whether the SNB will need to intervene in the short term by expanding its balance yet further via the purchase of large quantities of Euros.

The gold price has taken a short term hit, no doubt partially due to the Swiss referendum result. However, it is important to remember today’s context – with central banks in Russia and China and other creditor nation’s central banks continuing to diversify into gold and adding to their gold reserves, and with countries such as the Netherlands and Germany beginning to repatriate their existing gold reserves. Thus, there may come a point in the next few years when the Swiss will look back at this referendum and wonder whether it was a lost opportunity to reverse the debasement of the once venerable Swiss Franc.
Importantly, the Swiss gold referendum may be another contributing factor to the people of European countries demanding transparency regarding their gold reserves and to a demand for repatriation of and audits of national gold reserves.
There is also the fact that there is a growing level of awareness regarding the importance of gold as a monetary asset and store of value to protect against systemic and monetary crisis.

This post was published at Gold Core on 1 December 2014.

Gold Surges Over $50 Off Overnight Lows; Commodities Bouncing As Dollar Weakens

After last night’s big flush across commodities, they have rallied notably. Gold is now up over $50 from those lows, with Silver, copper, and even crude bouncing hard (after testing below $64 overnight). The USD is notably weaker, stocks lower, and bond yields testing mid-October flash-crash Bullard lows…
Gold dumped and pumped

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/01/2014.

The Macro Mauling Continues: Germany Contracts, Japan Downgraded, Copper Tumbles, WTI Lowest Since 2009, Gold Up

Another day full of global macroeconomic disappointments is certain to send the S&P500 to all time-higherest records as 100,000 or so E-mini contracts exchange hands between central banks and Citadel’s algos.
It started with the shocking NRF announcement that US holiday sales cratered 11% over the extended Thanksgiving weekend (which the NRF blamed on an “improving economy”, to which even Goebbels bows down his head), but also China’s latest manufacturing print miss expectations for the 2nd month in a row and drop to 8 month low, and moments thereafter, Eurozone releasing a downward revision to its October PMI data, with the all-important German PMI now openly in contraction, revised down from 50.0 to 49.5. And the punchline: the basket case that is Japan was finally downgraded by Moody’s to A1 from Aa3 by Moody’s which sent the USDJPY first to a new 7-year high at 119.14, only for USD/JPY to fall to new session low at 118.08 as everyone now realizes the Japanese endgame is just around the corner. Perhaps that is why after sliding 2% overnight, gold and silver have retraced all losses and are now higher from the Friday close, which however is more than can be said for copper down over 3% (thanks China) and of course crude, with both Brent and WTI declines continuing this morning as concerns of a sweeping global recession will sink future energy demand.
Looking at Europe’s PMI, the final number printed at 50.1 in November, 0.3pt below the Flash estimate (and the consensus) and 0.5pt below the October reading. The German final Manufacturing PMI for November was revised down 0.5pt to 49.5, contracting for the first time in years, while the French Manufacturing PMI recorded a 0.8pt upward revision to 48.4. The Italian Manufacturing PMI was unchanged from the level recorded in October (49.0), against expectations of a small increase (Cons: 49.4). By contrast, the Spanish Manufacturing PMI rose forcefully by 2.1pt to 54.7, against expectations of a slight contraction (Cons: 52.1).
The breakdown in November was weak. New orders receded by 1.7pt (to 48.7) and stocks fell by 0.9pt (to 49.0), leaving the forward-looking order-to-stock ratio stable in November; following gradual declines during 2014, this ratio now stands at the lowest level since April 2013. Both production and employment declined by 0.3pt in November, respectively. With today’s final print, the Euro area Manufacturing PMI is now estimated to have fallen in November (0.5pt), unwinding the small increase seen in October. The Euro area Manufacturing PMI is now at its lowest level in more than a year, having risen sharply from July 2012 to January 2014 reverting trend since then.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/01/2014.

Nepal sees giant rise in silver imports

Silver imports soared by an astounding 222 percent to Rs 8.37 billion in the first quarter of the fiscal year.
In the same period a year ago, the imports stood at just Rs 2.6 billion, while the imports for the whole last year was at Rs 12.71 billion, , according to Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) statistics.
Surprised by the surge in imports at a time when the exports of Nepali silver jewellery has dwindled, bullion traders suspect rising smuggling of the metal to India. The exports of silver jewellery decreased 13.6 percent to Rs 92.4 million in the first quarter.
They, however, said the falling prices of the precious metal has also fuelled domestic consumption. The price has tumbled 23 percent over the last year. The metal was traded at Rs 685 per tola on Sunday.
‘Such a surge in the import is unusual at a time when exports have decreased,’ said Mani Ratna Shakya, president of Federation of Nepal Gold and Silver Dealers Association (Fenegosida). ‘Smuggling to India to obtain Indian currency might be a reason behind the surge in silver imports.’

This post was published at TruthinGold on December 1, 2014.

SGT and the Watchman Suit Up to Assault Bankster Globalism

A New Interview with SGT
On the eve of the Swiss referendums, the Watchman took time to stop by SGT’s place(host of SGTreport.com), and compare thoughts on the ongoing lunacy of the globalist elites. While sadly, the Swiss people’s original inclinations(to bring their gold home) were overwhelmed by a tsunami of bankster-gold hate, it’s a great victory that such a vote was held at all. This has, no doubt, planted the seeds in millions of minds(in Switzerland and beyond), as to how precious gold is, and how important it is for a nation to possess it themselves.

This post was published at The Wealth Watchman on NOVEMBER 30, 2014.

The Three Reasons Why Moody’s Just Downgraded Japan From Aa3 To A1

Less than two weeks ago we were delighted to remind S&P that about a year ago, the laughable rating agency which is now terrified of being sued any time it tells the truth, promised it would downgrade Japan the moment things for the insolvent nation turn up to be, well, just as they are with the Bank of Japan now monetizing every yen of Japanese debt issuance. And yet, so far S&P has been very quiet on the downgrade front, most likely because it still has its hands full on the litigation front with the DOJ (and Tim Geithner) for downgrading the US back in 2011. So overnight we were not exactly surprised when that “other” rating agency, Moody’s, shocked the world and headline scanning algos when it downgraded Japan by 1 notch from Aa3 to A1.
Here are the reasons why Moody’s just did what it did, just two weeks ahead of the all-important for Abenomics snap election, in which should support for Abe tumble, then all bets on Abenomics, and the global stock market reflation game, are off.
The key drivers for the downgrade are the following:
Heightened uncertainty over the achievability of fiscal deficit reduction goals; Uncertainty over the timing and effectiveness of growth enhancing policy measures, against a background of deflationary pressures; and In consequence, increased risk of rising JGB yields and reduced debt affordability over the medium term.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/01/2014.

Simple Man’s Macro View of the World

I received an interesting email the Wednesday before Thanksgiving from Steen Jakobsen, chief economist for Saxo bank, regarding his macro picture of the world.
I purposely delayed posting it until now so more would see it than during a holiday-truncated week.
From Steen …
Simple Man’s View
One Trading View: Fixed income will outperform all assets. US 10-Year treasury yield will drop under 1.5% by 2015 Q3 One Economic View: Disinflation/deflation will be catalyst for asset sell-off One Timing View: Q2/Q3-2015 low this cycle for all indicators One Guaranteed View: Volatility will go up significantly

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on December 01, 2014.

Gold Investors Weekly Review – November 28th

In his weekly market review, Frank Holmes of the USFunds.com summarizes this week’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the gold market for gold investors. Gold closed the week at $1,168.74 down $32.81 per ounce (-2.73%). Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, fell 6.70%. The U. S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index slipped 0.05% for the week.
Gold Market Strengths
Central banks have been under pressure in Europe to account for gold held abroad. The latest news comes from France, where Governor of the Bank of France M. Christian Noyer has been asked to comprehensively audit the nation’s gold reserves. Likewise, the Netherlands repatriated some of its gold in order to restore confidence in the central bank. The increase in proprietary holding of gold by central banks is positive for global gold demand.
India imported 102 tonnes of gold between November 1 and November 15, just 48 tonnes shy of its total imports for the entire month of October. This data reveals a robust physical demand for gold in the country. Furthermore, India is looking to remove its 80/20 rule this week in order to free up gold flows into the country while eliminating distortions in the flows.
Gold Market Weaknesses
Four companies, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and HSBC Holdings PLC, are being sued over claims that they conspired for eight years to manipulate precious metals prices. The lawsuits join the club of numerous other attacks on financial companies.
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group, a major jewelry retailer in Hong Kong, reported a decline in profit of 23 percent for the six months ending September. Sales of gold products accounted for a significant part of the decline, falling 41 percent.

This post was published at GoldSilverWorlds on November 30, 2014.