I begin my 2017 stock market predictions with a recap of last year’s predictions. In an article back in 2015 titled ‘The Epocalypse: What Will D-Day Look Like?’ I predicted the Fed would raise rates on December 16th, 2015, and the US stock market would crash immediately. Counterintuitively, I said it would crash by shooting upward for a few days; then it would round off, and then, in a short time, it would plunge off a cliff. (In all not a pattern you’d likely find anyone else predicting.)
I said the stock market would crash by going up because everyone would look around after the long-dreaded day of the Fed’s first rate hike and see that the sky didn’t fall. That would turn them all smarmy and euphoric over how right they were about the recovery and about the bull market. That would, in turn, give rise to their hopes of a bull market forever and never ceasing. However, parties lead to hangovers. Once you recover from the hangover, reality sets in. That’s when they would begin to panic as they looked around, saw all the bottles and underwear and said, ‘Oh, my gosh, what did we do last night?’
How my 2015/2016 stock market predictions did
That is EXACTLY what happened (perhaps even including the underwear). January became the worst opening month in stock-market history. Now, to be fair, I also said that globally 2016 would turn into the ‘Year of the Epocalypse,’ and it didn’t. (More on that in my next article of 2017 economic predictions, but you have to admit it was one darn weird year, which I think was only the warm-up act for this year.) However, as part of the economic apocalypse I predicted for 2016, I described the following blowup:
Movement from bond funds to stocks will accelerate the bond implosion, wiping out billions in paper wealth on the high-yield bond side. Unfortunately for the market bulls, such mega-bond crashes almost always lead directly into stock-market crashes.
This post was published at GoldSeek on 3 January 2017.