Goldman’s Fed Minutes Post-Mortem: “The Elephant Was In The Room After All”

Earlier we showed what some of the more prominent sellside strategists thought of the FOMC’s surprisingly hawkish (yet maybe not) December minutes. And now, to top off the Fed Minutes day, here is perhaps the only analysis that matters: that of Goldman Sachs, which notes that as we speculated in December when the Fed hiked, “the hawkish December FOMC statement and accompanying increase in median interest rate expectations were to some extent motivated by the possibility of easier fiscal policy – as opposed to a shift in the FOMC reaction function.”
From Goldman’s Jan Hatzius
FOMC Minutes Show the Elephant Was in the Room After All
BOTTOM LINE: Minutes from the December FOMC meeting suggest that the hawkish December FOMC statement and accompanying increase in median interest rate expectations were to some extent motivated by the possibility of easier fiscal policy – as opposed to a shift in the FOMC reaction function.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jan 4, 2017.

This “Rogue” Oil & Gas Nation Just Set A Slew Of Output Records

With 2016 now closed out, we’re getting the first looks at year-end data. And numbers from one nation in the energy space have been particularly eye-catching this week.
Russia.
Over the last 15 years, Russia vaulted upwards in oil and gas production – challenging for the world’s top producer of crude. A fact that’s especially critical given this big producer is a ‘rogue’ nation that lies outside the purview of OPEC.
And 2016 was another big year for Russian oil output. With stats showing the country’s production rose again this past year – to an average 10.96 million barrels per day, up from 10.72 million barrels per day in 2015.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jan 4, 2017.

Where Are The Markets Headed Next Post Trump Jeff Berwick on Palisade Radio

The following video was published by The Dollar Vigilante on Jan 4, 2017
Jeff is interviewed by Collin Kettell for Palisade Radio, topics include: the upcoming TDV Internationalization and Investment conference in Acapulco on Feb. 24th, the gold and silver stocks, will they tank the stock market after Trumps inauguration? the rate hike, big changes coming that will likely be very bullish for gold, are commodities picking up? the Eurozone and Deutche Bank, playing the market in these times, hedging your bets, federal reserve money printing increasing again, hard asetts provide sfae haven in uncertain times, the increasing importance of Bitcoin.

2 New Gold Price Predictions Point to a 475.4% Gain

Gold is coming off a rough 12.1% decline in Q4 2016. But our newest gold price predictions show gains of 24% in 2017 and 451.4% by 2019.
You see, the decline in gold prices over the last three months is only a short-term reaction caused by two temporary factors…
The first is the U. S. dollar, which is up 5.8% since the presidential election and 2.2% since the December interest rate hike. A stronger dollar lowers the price of gold because gold becomes more expensive in foreign currencies.
The second headwind is news of India potentially limiting its gold imports. As one of the world’s largest gold consumers, India’s new policy would drastically reduce global demand. While the policy could benefit silver prices, it would drag gold prices lower.
Despite these headwinds, one of our gold price predictions sees the metal rebounding through 2017.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on January 4, 2017.

The Place for Tax Woes: Nine MSNBC Personalities Had Tax Liens Filed Against Them

MSNBC’s hosts have a tax problem.
A Heat Street review of public records show that a total of six current, prominent MSNBC pundits have recently settled federal or state tax liens, while one still has tax problems. Moreover, at least two other hosts who recently left the network have also had massive tax liens filed against them.
MSNBC declined to comment, and none of the current or former tax debtors responded to requests for interviews sent through an MSNBC spokesperson.
The Rev. Al Sharpton – MSNBC’s Sunday morning host – easily comes in first place when it comes to ‘issues’ with the taxman. He and his various entities – including several dissolved by New York for failure to pay taxes – currently owe about $1.5 million in state and federal taxes, interest and penalties, according to public records.
It’s a staggering sum, but down substantially from the $4.5 million in outstanding tax liens tallied by the New York Times two years ago. Sharpton has repeatedly said he’s worked out agreements with authorities to settle his tax debt, and a source close to him says he’s been paying it down aggressively, aware of how it may affect his legacy. The reverend has repeatedly called publicly for the wealthy to pay their fair share of taxes.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jan 4, 2017.

Charts at Market Close – The Duty of Delight

“How necessary it is to cultivate a spirit of joy. It is a psychological truth that the physical acts of reverence and devotion make one feel devout. The courteous gesture increases one’s respect for others. To act lovingly is to begin to feel loving, and certainly to act joyfully brings joy to others which in turn makes one feel joyful. I believe we are called to the duty of delight…
People say, what is the sense of our small effort? They cannot see that we must lay one brick at a time, take one step at a time. A pebble cast into a pond causes ripples that spread in all directions. Each one of our thoughts, words and deeds is like that.”
Dorothy Day
Today was the weekly trip to the butcher and the baker. We tend to be a little picky about quality, so we do drive a little distance but it is well worth it.
It is the little things that make life worth living. Maybe that is why those who have too much, and think too much about themselves, are so often so hard to please and the most miserable among God’s creatures. Greed can never be filled, and is therefore never at rest.
Stocks were in a lazy upward drift for the better part of the day, with silver following and gold in a sideways chop.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 04 JANUARY 2017.

JAN 4/GOLD AND SILVER RISE/GLD HOLDS CONSTANT/CHINESE OFFSHORE YUAN SOARS AS CONTROLS TAKE HOLD IN CHINA/CHINA THINKING ABOUT DUMPING USA TREASURIES/BITCOIN RISES TO PAR WITH GOLD/MEXICAN PESO PL…

Sorry I am late/had to attend a funeral.
Gold at (1:30 am est) $1163.80 UP $3.40
silver at $16.50: UP 15 cents
Access market prices:
Gold: $1163.0
Silver: $16.56
THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est last night and 2:15 am est early this morning
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
WEDNESDAY gold fix Shanghai
Shanghai morning fix Jan 4/17 (10:15 pm est last night): $ 1183.11
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1160.20 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)/premium $22.91
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Shanghai afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ 1186.99
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1162.05 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME/2:15 am)
HUGE SPREAD 2ND FIX TODAY!!: $24.94
China rejects NY pricing of gold as a fraud/arbitrage will now commence fully
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
London Fix: Jan 4/2017: 5:30 am est: $.1165.90 (NY: same time: $1165.95 5:30AM)
London Second fix Jan 3.2017: 10 am est: $1164.25 (NY same time: $1165.00 (10 AM)
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on January 5, 2017.

Crude Confusion As Gasoline, Distillates See Biggest Inventory Build In A Year

Crude prices remain lower since last week’s inventory data indicated a surprise (albeit small) build (but bounced today). With expectations for a 2mm draw this week, API reported crude inventories plunged 7.431mm last week – the most since September. However, Gasoline and Distillates saw huge inventory builds (biggest since Jan 2016) and WTI prices whipsawed

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jan 4, 2017.

Power & Profit Fuel War on Cash in Europe

But who benefits from the War on Cash?
In the wake of the attack on the Christmas market in Berlin in December, the European Commission granted customs and police authorities sweeping new powers to seize cash or precious metals carried by ‘suspect individuals’ entering the EU. People carrying more than 10,000 euros in cash already have to declare this at customs when entering the EU. The new rules would allow authorities to seize money (or precious metals or bitcoin) below that threshold ‘where there are suspicions of criminal activity.’
It was the latest step in the War on Cash. The powers that want to kill off cash include private and central banks, fintech firms, Silicon Valley magnates like Tim Cook and Bill Gates, telecom behemoths, credit card giants, assorted NGOs, a bewildering alphabet soup of UN agencies and many national governments. They all have their own disparate motives for taking out physical money.
They already have vital technological and generational trends firmly on their side, as well as the the added bonus of widespread public ignorance, apathy, and disinterest. As such, cash’s days as a commonly used payment method may well be numbered anyway. But it could take decades for it to die a natural death, if indeed it does. Cash’s enemies would much rather accelerate its demise.

This post was published at Wolf Street on Jan 4, 2017.

3M LIBOR Tops 1.00% For First Time Since 2009

While US equity prices push ebulliently towards their next level of Nirvana, financial conditions continue to tighten for American businesses.
For the first time since April 2009, 3-month LIBOR – one of the most important reference rates for business financing – topped 1.00% today.
We documented the real world implications of this in “Forget The Fed’s 0.25%, Short-Term Rates Have Already Risen By 1% For The Real World”
While blowing out unsecured funding rates may no longer be a flashing red flag, a question has emerged as a lot of debt references Libor, debt ranging from household debt to non-financial business debt: some $28 trillion of it, to be specific, and just in the US. The question is just how concerned will the borrowers of said debt be once they get their next due balance.
Here is Goldman with the calculation:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jan 4, 2017.

Are We Out of the Woods Yet?

First published Sun Jan 1 for members: Last weekend, I noted that set ups such as we have been seeing in the GDX usually lead to strong rallies which can see a 10% move higher quite quickly. Since then, the GDX ran 19% from its recent lows, with Thursday alone seeing a 7.5% rise. Yes, these divergent set ups can provide for powerful reversal reactions. But, it does not mean we are out of the woods just yet.
In fact, silver still is quite weak, and gold has not yet convinced me either. Moreover, one does not have to make this very complicated at this point in time when one views the daily chart on the GDX. As many of you, as well as the rest of the market, have been seeing the downtrend channel we have developed in the GDX, we cannot gain escape velocity until we are able to clear that 22.50 region.
Now, I can certainly provide you with a bullish interpretation of the rally in the GDX, as I have presented in on the attached 8 minute chart. While 3rd waves in equities are usually the strongest waves, we often see the 5th waves in the metals complex represent the strongest moves, with the top of the 5th wave experiencing a strong reversal. So, that certainly fits with this interpretation I have placed on the 8 minute chart. Moreover, the wave 3 of iii struck the 1.236 extension with wave 4 of iii holding support at the .764 extension, with wave iii culminating at the 1.764 extension, and wave v spiking through the 3.618 extension. Again, it is a very nice Fibonacci Pinball structure. However, it is not one I am going to maintain with strong conviction until we break out of the downtrend channel with authority. And, this is just plain and simple technical analysis.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 4 January 2017.

Audit The FED Bill Moves Forward, Next Step Get Rid Of The FED – Episode 1169a

The following video was published by X22Report on Jan 4, 2017
December auto sales surge on a build up of inventory. Cars delivered to the lot are counted as sales. Mortgage apps and refi apps are declining rapidly as interest rates move up. Luxury apartment bubble bursts as landlords cannot rent the apartments. At the end of 2016 the nation debt has increased to 19 trillion, it was 10 trillion when Obama takes office. Marine Le Pen wants France out of the EU. Crime fighting directory of Deutsche Bank resigns for unknown reasons. In a secret report released before Christmas it shows that US banks have an exposure to Europe in amount of 2 Trillion Dollars. Audit the FED bill gets new life as Trump will most likely sign it, but actions are bigger than words. This could be the first step in getting rid of the FED. The FOMC minutes show they are looking to raise interest rapidly and sure sign the central banks are bringing down the economy

Mnuchin Nomination for Treasury Shines Harsh Light on U.S. Politics

Over the span of the last two weeks, President-elect Donald Trump’s U. S. Treasury Secretary nominee, Steven Mnuchin, has been the subject of multiple, scathing investigative reports by the media; earned a web site established by Senate Democrats dubbing him the ‘Foreclosure King’ and soliciting complaints from the public; garnered a television ad campaign directed against him; and has been skewered by a devastating document leaked by someone currently or formerly connected to the California State Attorney General’s Office, indicating that the bank Mnuchin ran from 2009 to 2015, OneWest, repeatedly violated California foreclosure law, including backdating documents and making illegal bids, in order to throw thousands of vulnerable people out of their homes.
Mnuchin is also a former Goldman Sachs partner and hedge fund operator who has never held public office before. His rapid rise to nominee for one of the highest posts in the U. S. government, which will also put him atop the Financial Stability Oversight Council (F-SOC), appears to be hinged to raising millions of dollars for Trump’s political campaign as his National Finance Chairman. To millions of Americans, this looks like an unseemly political quid pro quo.
In a press release, Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley had this to say about the nominee:
‘Donald Trump’s choice of Mnuchin is not only a fundamental betrayal of his promise to stand up to Wall Street – it is a punch in the gut to the thousands of American families who were thrown out of their homes by Mnuchin’s bank. The voices of these Americans should be heard loud and clear as the Senate examines his record and considers his nomination.’
Senator Bernie Sanders weighed in with this:

This post was published at Wall Street On Parade By Pam Martens and Russ Marte.

Gold and Silver Market Morning: Jan 4 2017 – Gold and Silver see a shift in sentiment!

Gold Today – New York closed at $1,159.50 on the 3rd January after closing at $1,151.70 on the 30th December. London opened againat $1,166.30 today.
Overall the dollar is weaker against global currencies today. Before London’s opening:
– The $: was weaker at $1.0441: 1 from $1.0310: 1 yesterday.
– The Dollar index was weaker at 102.98 from 103.09 yesterday.
– The Yen was stronger at 117.56: $1 from yesterday’s 117.92 against the dollar.
– The Yuan was stronger at 6.9321: $1, from 6.9566: $1, yesterday.
– The Pound Sterling was slightly weaker at $1.2270: 1 fromyesterday’s $1.2280: 1.
Yuan Gold Fix
As you can see from the above figures [yesterday’s not today’s, as today are only released tomorrow] the discount to Shanghai’s prices is narrowing. Shanghai prices continue to rise showing good demand, but London and New York’s prices are rising faster, despite strong sales from gold ETFs. Against New York’s prices Shanghai was trading $16.38 higher, but against London Shanghai was trading only $10.40 higher. The change in sentiment in the global gold markets is now evidenced by these rising prices.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 4 January 2017.

Making America Great Again…With Debt

When Donald Trump is inaugurated as President on January 20th, 2017, he faces a myriad of problems. Among the financial and economic dilemmas is the national debt.
The nation’s debt has grown at a pace that economists and policymakers feel are a disaster waiting to happen. However, Trump stated during the presidential campaign that he will improve the nation’s infrastructure, increase military spending, and upgrade veteran’s benefits, all while cutting taxes. How can this all be done while dealing with a burgeoning national debt?
How Did We Get Here?
The National Debt is money the federal government owes consisting of the Treasury Department and other federal agencies debt instruments. These financial instruments were issued to pay for the federal government’s operation and deficits. When government spending exceeds tax revenues and other financial receipts, the federal government borrows using these instruments. However, the total gross amount the Treasury Department ultimately borrows is limited by the debt ceiling and only Congress may increase it.
In theory, this method can work. The premise is to pay back the borrowed money with interest, over time. The problem is that when the federal government borrows it is usually to cover deficits adding up to trillions of dollars. These debt instruments are purchased by commercial banks, mutual funds, pensions, and the Federal Reserve. Global investors believe in Treasury instruments’ safety and purchased trillions of dollars of US debt. These instruments are considered conservative investments backed by the ‘full faith and credit’ of the United States who will pay them back no matter what.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 01/04/2017.