Charts For a Rainy Thursday Afternoon – Standing Before the Nations With Judgement

“Then Abraham drew near and said to Him, ‘Will you also destroy the righteous with the wicked? Suppose I can find fifty good people within the city. Will you then sweep it all away, and not spare it for the sake of the fifty good ones who are in it?…
And then Abraham said again, ‘Oh Lord, do not be angry, and I will ask this again but this once: Perhaps [not fifty but] just ten good people shall be found in that city. And God said, then I will not destroy it, for sake of those ten good people…
And so it came to pass that the Lord rained fire and brimstone out of the highest heavens, down upon the cities of Sodom and Gomorrah. He overthrew those cities in His judgement, and so all of their surroundings, and all of their inhabitants, and even all which moved and grew upon the ground around them.”
Genesis 18: 23-32, 19: 24-25
“So let us stop debating the basic teachings again and again. Let us go forward instead and become mature in our understanding. Surely we don’t need to start again with the fundamental importance of repenting from evil deeds, and placing our faith in the Lord. You don’t need further instruction and debate about baptisms, the laying on of hands, the resurrection of the dead, and eternal judgment.
And so, God willing, we will move forward to further understanding. For it is impossible to bring back to repentance those who were once enlightened – those who have experienced the good things of heaven and shared in the Holy Spirit, who have tasted the goodness of the word of God and the power of the age to come – and who then turn away from God.
It is impossible to bring such people who were given the grace to see and then fallen away, back again to true forgiveness – for by accepting Him with their words, and then rejecting Him with their actions and in their hearts, they themselves have nailed him back on to His cross, and held Him publicly to shame.”
Hebrews 6: 1-6
This is what is called the sins against the Spirit – those who turn the good word to ill and to a temptation, who dwell in the words but not in the Spirit, who have the leaven of the pharisees, who may appear good and whole to the eye, but who inside are but hollowed tombs, filled with every evil and corruption.
Stocks sold off this morning, but the volumes being light, it was lacking in conviction, and equities spent the rest of the day drifting back higher.
Gold also took out the 1200 level this morning, but could not quite hold on to the 12 handle.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 12 JANUARY 2017.

For How Long Did Fiat-Chrysler Hide its EPA Diesel Fiasco? Investors Found out the Hard Way Today

Just days ago, CEO Marchionne tried to soften up Trump.
Today, the EPA disclosed that Fiat-Chrysler was neck-deep in the diesel-gate fiasco pioneered by Volkswagen. When Volkswagen settled claims in a Canadian court in December for C$2.1 billion, it brought total costs so far to $18 billion, and it’s still not over. So these things can get expensive.
Volkswagen’s strategy at the outset had been to keep investors in the dark, and deny, deny, deny, until it finally buckled. Fiat-Chrysler (FCA) appears to follow the same time-honored corporate strategy.
The EPA today issued a notice of violation to FCA, alleging violations of the Clean Air Act…

This post was published at Wolf Street by Wolf Richter ‘ Jan 12, 2017.

97 Consecutive Weeks of Initial Claims Below 300,000! (But 91 Consecutive MONTHS of Wage Growth Below 3%!)

The headlines scream ’97 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000!’
In the week ending January 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 247,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 2,000 from 235,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 256,500, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,500 from 256,750 to 258,250.
There were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims. This marks 97 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970.
The last week of initial jobless claims of above 300,000 was in February 2015. That make 97 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Anthony B. Sanders ‘ January 12, 2017.

Proposed Tax Changes and How to Benefit from Them

In this article I will touch on the following topics:
Summary of proposed tax changes from Trump and House GOP. Strategies to consider using to take advantage of the proposed changes. Which changes are most likely to occur. As we all know, on January 20th Trump will become the 45th President of the United States. He has made many promises during his campaign and one of the most ambitious, overhauling the tax code, will serve as the litmus test for his presidency. What we know is that there are many different ideas that have been presented by Trump, House Republicans and, to a lesser extent, Senate Republicans. The fun parlor game that we will play today is to try and predict what these changes will be and how they may impact your financial situation.
Trump has promised to “drain the swamp” and to use his business expertise to get his changes implemented, but he now faces the reality of DC and must handle the expectations and wants of many different groups. The House Republicans are led by Paul Ryan and the Ways and Committee Chairman Kevin Brady, who is the top tax writer in the House. They have released a tax reform plan and have made this their primary focus now that they are back in session. The Senate GOP is being less talked about since they have not released a plan but are focused on a Bi-Partisan bill that could avoid a filibuster.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 01/12/2017.

Kellyanne Conways Discusses The “Trump Effect” On Economy

Earlier this morning, Kellyanne Conway appeared on Bloomberg to discuss Trump’s economic policies regarding everything from job creation to tax cuts, energy investment, infrastructure spending, Obamacare and China. Of course, she started by taking the opportunity to boast about the “Trump Effect” that has already resulted in manufacturing jobs coming back to the United States and record high-er stock prices.
“First of all, you already see the Trump effect. You see that manufacturing jobs are already coming back to the U. S., or staying here. Plans to build factories in Mexico, to ship jobs over the border there, take them away from hardworking Americans have stopped. That’s the Trump effect.”
“You see that the stock market loves that fact that he was elected. We’ve had record highs over a number of days.”
After the brief commercial introduction, Conway addressed Trump’s plans to “roll back corrosive regulations” that have suffocated job creation, lower taxes across the board and work with companies to develop America’s energy resources “in a responsible and profitable way for all of us.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jan 12, 2017.

RBC Explains Why The Market Is Dumping, Adds “This Is Not The Big Short”… Yet

Having yesterday revealed what he believes is the single biggest risk to the buyside in general, and hedge funds in particular, in today’s market (the answer, for those who missed it, is the strong dollar suddenly turning weak, as it is continues to do today), here is the follow-up note from RBC’s Charlie McElliggott, explaining where we stand now.
Where We Stand
As laid-out in yesterday’s Big Picture note ‘THE SINGLE LARGEST MACRO INPUT RISK TO THE BUYSIDE,’ as asymmetrically ‘long US Dollar’ positioning ‘tips over,’ so too should we expect a drawdown on consensual macro and thematic-equity trades.
Tactical cases are everywhere for an extension / acceleration of mean-reversion trades, largely based-upon positioning excess and reversing technicals.
As the case has been built over the past month and a half in the ‘RBC Big Picture,’ reversal strategies are a regular feature in the January landscape – especially after such clear trend developed in the back half of ’16 with regards to ‘reflation – those being:’
Long USD, stocks, small cap / domestically levered, value factor, cyclicals beta, inflation, high tax rate, HY / high beta credit (CCC over BB), CNH, curve steepeners, copper

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jan 12, 2017.

2017 – Spectacular For Gold And Silver But Disaster For Bonds And Stocks

2017 has just started but some longer-term trend changes already seem to develop. It is interesting how a new year combined with a new US president act as a catalyst for what will be the start of monumental events in the world economy. Not that many of these will come as a surprise to the readers of my articles but for the rest of the world, there will be one shock after the next which will create real panic.
We are now seeing the beginning of reversals in many markets. Some of these new trends will take longer to develop and some could happen surprisingly quickly. Most major markets will be affected namely: Bond & Credit Markets, Currencies, Stocks, Metals, Precious Metals Mining stocks and Property.
The law of diminishing returns
Let’s first look at the biggest bubble of all bubbles ever in history – the Global Bond Market.
This is a market which has virtually exploded from $10 trillion in 1990 to $100 trillion today. And if we look at the debt expansion in the last 10 years since the Great Financial crisis started in 2006, the global bond market has gone up by 70%.

This post was published at GoldSwitzerland on January 12, 2017.


Gold at (1:30 am est) $1198.90 UP $3.30
silver at $16.78: unchanged
Access market prices:
Gold: $1195.70
Silver: $16.83
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est last night and 2:15 am est early this morning
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
THURSDAY gold fix Shanghai
Shanghai FIRST morning fix Jan 12/17 (10:15 pm est last night): $ 1211.01
NY ACCESS PRICE: $1197.00 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)/premium $14.01
Shanghai SECOND afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ 1216.25
China rejects NY pricing of gold as a fraud/arbitrage will now commence fully
London Fix: Jan 12/2017: 5:30 am est: $1206.25 (NY: same time: $1204.60 (5:30AM)
London Second fix Jan 12.2017: 10 am est: $1205.05 (NY same time: $1204.80 (10 AM)
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on January 12, 2017.

Be Prepared for a Violent Fed Reversal

The outlook for rates has taken what I call a U-turn. There’s very little doubt that the Fed is on track to raise rates. This outlook is not in response to any particular piece of economic data or the overall economic picture. In fact there are plenty of arguments why the Fed should not raise rates based on economic fundamentals.
However, they have a separate agenda which is that the Fed has committed, what I think will be viewed in hindsight, as a historical blunder by missing the opportunity to raise rates in 2010, 2011, 2012. That was when the economy was growing, not strongly but those were the early stages of the expansion.
The economy was growing well enough then to justify rate increases. If the Fed had normalized rates in 2011-2012, between 2 – 2.5%, they would be in a good position today to cut rates if necessary to fight a recession. Unfortunately they did not do that. They missed an entire cycle while experimenting with Ben Bernanke’s quantitative easing, which in hindsight will turn out to be a real mistake by the Fed.
Now they’re in the position to move rates after the eighth year into the recovery. While this has been a weak recovery, and people are still struggling with part-time employment, or can’t launch careers on top of other difficulties, this recovery technically started in June of 2009. This makes for a very long recession by historic standards. More than twice as long as the average expansion since World War II, and comparable to the very long expansions we’ve had since 1980.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on January 12, 2017.

Regime Change: The Effect of Trump’s Victory on Stock Prices

A Soaring Market
On January 20 2017 Donald Trump will be sworn in as the new president of the United States. On the stock market his victory has triggered a lot of advance cheer already: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by a sizable 7.80 percent between the election and the turn of the year.
Many investors are now wondering what effect the change in government will have on stock prices in the new administration’s first year. Will the new government continue to drive the market higher? Or will it actually decline?
We will examine this question statistically. To this end we take a look at how stock prices were affected by changes in government in the past and whether these changes have generated stronger gains on average than were achieved in other years.
The Long Term Seasonal Trend of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
Let us first take a look at the ‘normal’ seasonal trend of the DJIA. To enhance the calculation’s statistical relevance, we have constructed an especially long term chart that includes every year since 1900.
Thus the seasonal chart below shows the typical price pattern of the DJIA in the course of a year, averaged over the past 117 years.

This post was published at Acting-Man on January 12, 2017.

Trump : Head Of US Intel “Denounced Fictitious, Illegally Circulated Report”

James Clapper called me yesterday to denounce the false and fictitious report that was illegally circulated. Made up, phony facts. Too bad!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 12, 2017

In his first tweet of the day, Donald Trump said at 7:23am on Thursday that Director of National Intelligence James Clapper had called him to effectively apologize and “denounce” the “false and fictitious” report containing numerous unverified allegations about the president-elect and Russia.
“Made up, phony facts. Too bad!” Trump tweeted.
Trump’s victory lap followed a statement issued late on Wednesday night from Clapper, in which the head of the DNI said he had spoken to Trump to express his “profound dismay at the leaks that have been appearing in the press, and we both agreed that they are extremely corrosive and damaging to our national security.” In other words, the US intel agencies, having been slammed by Trump for being “overly politicized”, blinked.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jan 12, 2017.

Warning The ‘Icarus Trade’ Is Coming, Prepare For A Meltdown Of The Market In 2017 – Episode 1176a

The following video was published by X22Report on Jan 12, 2017
Euro zone recovery on shaky grounds and if the people vote away the governments the system will collapse. US lost 286,000 manufacturing jobs and created 3.2 million part time jobs. Amazon is going to create 100,000 jobs. Continuous job claims are over 100,000 since the election. Lowes is planning to layoff 15-20 thousand employees. Real estate deals are falling through. Central bankers are saying we are not to blame for the economy falling apart. BoA warns of the Icarus Trading, the market will popup and then we will see a meltdown.

The 2017 Outlook: Shifting Regimes

Mr. X, BCA’ loyal client paid us his annual visit to discuss the economic and market outlook. He is suspicious of the optimism in the macro and market air, and grilled us on the disconnect between the post-US election euphoria in global markets and his more sober view that many of the secular drags on global growth will remain with us, even if policy shifts into a more pro-growth gear on a cyclical basis.
The US election did not trigger the flip of a switch in global growth momentum. It was already improving. The window between the end of deflation and the rise of inflation is a fertile macro environment for risk assets. Global inflation is likely to remain subdued for another couple of years because the global economy still suffers from a fair amount of spare capacity. Even though the global output gap has indeed declined from its post-crisis 2009 peak, it’s still as large as in the early 1990’s.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 01/12/2017.

Trump Blasts CNN’s “FAKE NEWS”, Says “Credibility Will Soon Be Gone!”

.@CNN is in a total meltdown with their FAKE NEWS because their ratings are tanking since election and their credibility will soon be gone!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 12, 2017

One day after totally shutting down CNN’s Jim Acosta at his first press conference as President-elect, Trump continues to hammer CNN tweeting that they’re “in a total meltdown with their FAKE NEWS because their ratings are tanking since election and their credibility will soon be gone!”
Of course this is likely, at least in part, a reaction to a clash that occured last night between CNN’s Anderson Cooper and Kellyanne Conway in which Cooper, despite his network’s clear reporting errors, said “I think you guys are feeling the heat. [Our report] was actually backed up by not only by multiple sources but other news agencies.” Of course, Conway was quick to shut down Cooper’s deflection:
‘What heat do we feel? That you’ve got this raw information, this complete ridiculous fake news?’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jan 12, 2017.

Trump, Spy Stories, Prostitutes and the U.S. Dollar

The President of the United States is typically viewed as the person whose top job is to inspire confidence in the dignity, integrity and sanity of his leadership of the country. But the presser held by President-elect Donald Trump yesterday, the first in six months and likely viewed by world leaders around the globe, was short on confidence building and long on slandering the American media and U. S. intelligence agencies. In short order, the U. S. dollar took a dive. Trump has yet to assimilate the concept that his words no longer belong just to him but attach themselves like flypaper to the credibility of the most powerful nation on earth.
At times, the press conference felt more like an unruly street fight than a media Q&A by the man who will be sworn in as the 45th President of the United States in just nine days. Trump had his gang lined up on one side: his lawyer, the Vice President-elect, his two sons and one daughter. On the other side was the media, filled with questions on newly leaked documents about Trump’s relationship with Russia.

This post was published at Wall Street On Parade By Pam Martens and Russ Marte.

In Bizarre “Takeover”, Russia Today Broadcasts Live On C-SPAN Feed For 10 Minutes

"an internal routing issue"
— Alex Kantrowitz (@Kantrowitz) January 12, 2017

In a strange “hostile takeover” of state TV broadcasters, not to mention a bizarre moment of startling symmetry with the current state of American politics, C-SPAN, the public affairs network that broadcasts political proceedings the United States House of Representatives and Senate, was interrupted by a live feed of Russian TV channel, RT, formerly known as Russia Today.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jan 12, 2017.