“Depressed” Millennials Are Convinced The Trump Economy Is Going To Implode

When asked about the economic outlook for America, millennials were the only generation to predict 2017 would be worse than 2016. As Bloomberg reports, the feeling of impending doom wasn’t exclusively reserved for 2017: about a third of millennials surveyed said they don’t think they’ll have enough money to comfortably retire at all.
While the new year marks a fresh start for many, millennials aren’t so optimistic.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jan 6, 2017.

The Great El Monte Public Pension Swindle

Nowhere City California
There are places in Southern California where, although the sun always shines, they haven’t seen a ray of light for over 50-years. There’s a no man’s land of urban blight along Interstate 10, from East Los Angeles through the San Gabriel Valley, where cities you’ve never heard of and would never go to, are jumbled together like shipping containers on Terminal Island. El Monte, California, is one of those places.
How El Monte came to be is a story shared with many of its adjoining San Gabriel Valley cities. Boom, bust, and rapid transformation from an agricultural area to working class artery of a burgeoning megalopolis, vomited out a multitude of enduring mistakes. Many of them will never be rectified.
When El Monte was incorporated as a municipality in 1912, the prospects for the place must have seemed limitless. Here was open and fertile land, ideally situated in a low valley between the San Gabriel and Rio Hondo Rivers. Equally important, it was ideally situated just several miles from the budding City of Los Angeles.
Residents of early El Monte claimed anything could be grown there. With a little hard work and persistence, money would flow to the rural municipality in exchange for feeding Los Angeles’ growing appetite. Could the gods have ever smiled brighter upon an enchanted hamlet?
At first it appeared this blueprint for prosperity was working. Denizen field workers experienced the fruits of a lively civic and agricultural district. Alas, it wouldn’t last for long.

This post was published at Acting-Man on January 7, 2017.

Banning Cash & THE GREAT CRASH OF 2017

The following video was published by SilverDoctors on Jan 7, 2017
It’s becoming increasingly clear that the move to ban cash is going global. What started with Modi in India is now moving to Australia and Spain, and if people don’t revolt en masse and soon, the passivity of these populations with embolden the Federal Reserve and bankers to ban cash in the United States. And while the tyranny against cash only grows, the global bond bubble is beginning to pop – with many experts predicting total systemic collapse in 2017, and possibly as soon as January.

Money-Supply Growth Accelerates in Late 2016

The supply of US dollars accelerated during late 2016 with October’s year-over-year percentage increase in the money supply hitting a 46-month high of 11.2 percent. The YOY growth rate fell slightly to 10.3 percent in November.
This comes after a long period of relatively sedate growth in the money supply through most of 2013, 2014 and 2015.
The recent surge in money supply growth suggests that the likelihood of an economic contraction in the near future has been reduced, with the next downturn being pushed out further into the future.
In recent decades, money supply growth has slowed significantly prior to – and during – recessionary periods, as can be seen prior to 2001 and 2008:

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on 6 January 2017.

Gold Traders Are Most Bullish Since 2015 on New Year Concerns

There’s one thing almost all gold traders and analysts agree on, now is a great time to own bullion.
Those surveyed by Bloomberg were the most positive they’ve been on the metal’s price outlook since the end of 2015, with 14 saying they’re bullish on the metal, two bearish, and one neutral. Worries over political developments in Europe, and in the U.S. following Donald Trump’s election, as well as expectations of stronger demand ahead of the Lunar New Year were cited as factors.
‘The euro zone has plenty of crisis triggers over coming months; Indian and Chinese buying remain strong and Trump’s policy threatens inflation,’ said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland, which oversees $190 million. ‘All this is positive for gold.’
The metal for immediate delivery has risen every day this year, gaining more than 1 percent to about $1,180 an ounce during London trade on Thursday, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal rose 8.1 percent in 2016, its best performance in five years. Demand for gold as gifts in China normally rises before the Lunar New Year, which this year starts at the end of January.

This post was published at bloomberg

Barclays Flags ‘Black Swan Threats’ to Commodities This Year

Watch out for the unexpected in commodities in 2017. Barclays Plc said raw materials markets from energy to metals face the high likelihood of disruptions, giving a laundry list of possible threats including a default by Venezuela, riots in Chile and a trade war with China.
‘The new politics of populism and protectionist trade policies have the potential to disrupt global supply and demand assumptions for various commodities,’ analysts including Michael Cohen and Dane Davis wrote in a Jan. 5 report. ‘We see risks skewed to the upside in 2017, based on a high likelihood of disruption risk.’
Commodities advanced in 2016 to post the first annual gain since 2010 as energy markets rebounded and investors reacted to unexpected political events including Donald Trump’s election win in the U.S. and Britain’s vote to quit the European Union. Barclays said that the markets will surprise in some fashion this year, and the bank’s analysis illustrated the key point that politics are likely to matter just as much as economics.
‘Commodity market black swan events come in many forms, and the market may take years or an instant to price them in,’ the analysts wrote, defining them as extreme events or dynamics that market participants aren’t currently pricing in. ‘China, Russia, the Middle East and Turkey are likely to surprise the commodity complex in 2017.’

This post was published at bloomberg

Odey’s Hedge Fund Slumps 49.5% in Worst Ever Annual Loss

Crispin Odey’s main hedge fund slumped 49.5 percent in 2016, its worst annual decline since it began trading in 1992, according to an investor letter.
The billionaire, who last month complained that ‘mindless’ passive investing was driving out active fund managers, saw his bearish bets against stocks suffer amid a surge in equities. His Odey European Inc. fund lost 3.4 percent in December, the letter shows.
Odey warned in October that U.K. stocks could slump 80 percent as the economy suffered a recession and higher inflation following the Brexit vote. His fund’s loss lags behind a more than 4 percent gain by peers, according to preliminary estimates from data provider Eurekahedge.
‘Even if his assessment is correct, the problem with ultra-bearish bets is the timing,’ said Jacob Schmidt, chief executive officer at investment advisory firm Schmidt Research Partners in London.

This post was published at bloomberg