A Fractured France at the Crossroad of Multiple Risks

Since the beginning of 2015, the socio-political situation in France has become strained following a string of terrorist attacks as well as a wave of anti-government protests. Political violence and unrest coupled with stagnating macroeconomic performances have weakened the ruling Parti Socialiste (PS) and ushered in a ‘new normal’.
As France is set to ready itself for the May 2017 presidential elections, the country is at the crossroad of several political risks increasing the potential for relatively ineffective policy making as well as social and communal tensions. While pre-elections rivalries will soar and the government unions power play will continue to lead to periodic unrest, the elevated terrorist threat generated by radical Islamist will remain a major issue weighing on the political debate and everyday life.
The Left: A Free-for-All Fight in the Socialist Party
A key aspect defining the last months of President Hollande presidency will be the internal fighting pitting rival camps of the PS as the party is preparing to hold its primaries in January 2017.
With extremely low approval ratings, the political future of President Hollande appears to be set. As the PS is struggling to formulate a strategy to arrive at the elections’ second round, the president appears to be an obstacle rather than a support to his party. In itself this is a new situation in France; however, while the political situation of President Hollande is unlikely to improve in the coming six months, it is likely that his allies may try to push him to run in an attempt to safeguard the interests of the socio-democrat branch of the PS.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 10/12/2016.