Weekend Reading: Stuck In The Middle – Again

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
I have written previously about being stuck in a trading range.
‘Over the past couple of months, we have continued to drift from one economic report, or Central Bank meeting, to the next. Each report and meeting have continued to leave market participants confused as to what is going to happen next. Is the economy improving? Or not?
Will the Fed hike rates? Not?
The bulls and the bears have met at the crossroad. However, neither is ready to commit capital towards their inherent convictions. So, for 43-days, and counting, we remain range bound waiting for what is going to happen next.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 28, 2016.

David Einhorn Slams Elon Musk, Central Bankers In His Latest Letter

In David Einhorn’s latest letter, in which we find that Greenlight had a solid quarter in Q3, generating a 3.4% return which boosted the hedge fund’s YTD return to 3.8%, we also learn that the poker playing-head of Greenlight is not a fan of Elon Musk; Einhorn also lashes out at the Fed although since Greenlight’s antipathy toward the Federal Reserve has been well known for years, this is not exactly new.
Einhorn starts off by quoting from Dave Pell: ‘It’s pretty amazing that we live in an age when a CEO of two public companies can give a talk about colonizing Mars and shareholders don’t see that as a warning signal’, and added that “It’s not so amazing when one considers that those same complacent shareholders have been willing to look past years of over-promising and under-delivering from a promotional CEO. Elon Musk’s ability to spin a yarn and keep a story going seems to mesmerize his investors, blinding them to the challenges the company is facing.”
Something tells us TSLA is one of Einhorn’s more prominent shorts. And speaking of shorts, in the next part of the letter Einhorn then lashes out at central bankers, in typical fashion:
In contrast, we have central bankers who are determined to see flashing lights that aren’t there. We are more than seven years into an economic recovery, yet central bankers behave as if we’re still in crisis. Not only are experimental emergency policies being maintained, they are being expanded despite little evidence that they are needed or helpful. The newest manifestation comes from Japan, where the central bank has committed to monetize the entire government bond market if needed to keep the ten-year rate at zero. Leading economists are currently destigmatizing the idea of fiscal policy stimulus financed by direct money printing, so that goes into the coming attractions queue.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 28, 2016.

How former President Bill Clinton and U.S. politicians economically gutted America

Politicians – they are the ones who start the wars. They are the ones who bankrupt the country. They are the ones who pass unfair trade deals that destroyed both the manufacturing base in America along with the Middle Class. They are the ones who appease special interest and favor big business over the individual tax-paying consumer. They are the ones who bail out the banks. They are the ones who lie to you to get elected. They are the ones who raise your taxes. They are the ones who fail to regulate the recklessness of Wall Street. They are the ones who deficit spends beyond what budget constraints should allow. They are the ones who appoint the federal judges who make the laws that infringe upon your personal liberties. No wonder they are always working to antagonize foreign nations or looking for a foreign bogeyman to vilify because that keeps your disgust off them, the real root cause of most of the country’s problems, and puts it on a foreign enemy that, chances are, they helped create in the first place.

This post was published at UtopiatheCollapse on October 28, 2016.

Our Newest Gold Price Forecast

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning – We Make Investing Profitable. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
For nearly the entire month of October, gold has been ‘stuck’ in a trading range.
The precious metal has been meandering between $1,250 and $1,275, seemingly directionless. But our newest gold price forecastshows a scenario where gold climbs by double digits in the next several months.
The big story this month has been the surging U. S. dollar, which has gained against most major currencies for the past month and beyond.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Peter Krauth ‘ October 28, 2016.

Prices Are Skyrocketing, But Only For Things You Actually Need

Everything else has fallen in price over the years
The Chart of the Week is a weekly Visual Capitalist feature on Fridays.
The way that economic data is presented, we often think of inflation as a singular number representing a general increase in prices.
For example, it might be reported that nominal GDP growth was 3%, and that inflation was 2%. Since the inflation represents a rise in price levels, we subtract it from the nominal rate to get a real GDP growth of 1%.
But in reality, price changes do not affect products and services in such a uniform and simple fashion. In the above example, all goods aren’t increasing in price at a 2% rate – that’s just an average. What really happens is that there is a full spectrum of price changes: some goods end up falling in price, while other goods get more expensive.
What’s Actually Getting More Expensive?
This week’s chart looks at the change in prices of consumer goods since 1996, using data provided by Mark J. Perry of AEI’s Carpe Diem blog.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Friday, 28 October 2016.

Clinton State Dept Spent 5.4 Million Taxpayer Dollars On ‘Crystal Stemware’, $630k On Facebook ‘Likes’

Authored by Cameron Cawthorne, originally posted at The Washington Free Beacon,
The Republican National Committee revealed Thursday in a 21-page memo that Hillary Clinton’s State Department spent millions of dollars on lavish goods and initiatives on the taxpayers’ dime.
The projects included a $3.6 million fleet of ‘unused broadcast TV trucks’ in Afghanistan and $167.5 million on ‘preventable cost overruns while expanding embassy Kabul.’ The State Department spent an additional $9.8 million on purchases the GOP characterized as ‘frivolous,’ such as the $79,000 in taxpayer funds Clinton’s agency used to buy up copies of President Obama’s book or the $53,004 her agency spent on ‘marble polishing services’ at the U. S. embassy in Brasilia ‘during the summer of 2010.’
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has previously seized on the State Department’s questionable bookkeeping methods under Clinton when she was secretary of state. In the third presidential debate, Trump said that $6 billion went missing during Clinton’s tenure at the State Department, the Examiner noted.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 28, 2016.

The Disaster of Inflation–For the Bottom 95%

Central banks seeking to boost inflation are waging financial war on the bottom 95% of households.
Central banks are obsessed with boosting inflation, but the “why inflation is good” arguments make no sense for households being ravaged by inflation. The basic argument is that inflation makes it easier for debtors to service their debts.
But this is only true if income rises along with costs. If income stays flat while costs rise, households lose ground–debt remains a burden as the purchasing power of income plummets.

This post was published at Charles Hugh Smith on FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2016.

Proof The Gold Price Based On Cost, Not Supply & Demand

The notion that the gold price is based on the economics of ‘Supply & Demand’ turns out to be incorrect as the cost of production is the leading factor. This is also true for most commodities and energy.
Unfortunately, economists and most analysts in the precious metals community will continue to believe that the economic principle of supply and demand determines price. If we look at the data provided in this article, the individual will see how closely related the cost of gold production is to the spot price.
That being said, the information in this article is only to show the ‘commodity pricing mechanism’ of gold, not its true store of value. There’s a big difference which 99% in the Mainstream media do not understand… and probably a good percentage in the precious metals community as well.

This post was published at SRSrocco Report on October 28, 2016.

More Details: FBI Came Across A “Device” Which Contained New Emails As Part Of “Unrelated Investigation”

As cited by CNBC, NBC’s Pete Williams provides some much needed color, and says there doesn’t appear to be that anyone intentionally withheld evidence or emails in the Clinton investigation; they found new emails after coming across a device in the course of an unrelated investigation and while looking at that device, that’s what led them to the new emails. Williams adds that this is not coming out after Russian hacking or from the Podesta leaks.
In other words, the FBI is now probing what is on the device and what are the emails on it.
Which brings up a valid question, as asked by the Washington’s Examiner’s Tim Carney: “what was the “unrelated investigation” that turned up new HRC emails. Any chance it was about taxpayer-backed export finance?

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 28, 2016.

Gold And The Dollar Moving In Tandem?

One interesting occurrence that has not been written about in the precious metals alternative media or blog space yet is that gold has been quietly moving in tandem with the dollar over the past several trading sessions. It has been quite pronounced during the past four trading days, today inclusive. In the previous 15 years, gold’s best periods of return have occurred when gold and the dollar move in tandem higher for a brief period of time, followed by a period of time when the dollar heads south and gold continues higher.
If you look at graphs of both gold and the dollar side by side, you’ll see that this occurred in late 2005 into early 2006, when gold moved higher until May while the dollar fell and again in late 2008. It’s too early tell if that will happen now, but suffice it to say that both are moving in tandem right now and it’s worth watching to see if it continues. My theory is that there’s flight to safety into gold and the dollar ahead of an adverse economic event. As the event unfolds, the dollar begins to sell off but capital continues to flow into gold as the ultimate wealth preservation asset.

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on October 28, 2016.

Trump Online Victory Odds Jump As Hillary Slumps

While the world listens to Hillary address the Iowa public in her first public appearance since news of the FBI probe reopening broke, the betting markets are actively moving already and according to at least one online betteing platform, Trump’s odds, after plunging to contract lows in recent weeks, have jumped substantially and moments ago rose as high as 32 before paring gains modestly shortly after.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 28, 2016.


Gold $1272.50 UP $4.30
Silver 17.68 UP 8 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold: 1276.00
Silver: 17.77
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
Shanghai morning fix OCT 28 (10:15 pm est last night): $ 1275.87
Shanghai afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ 1273.38
London Fix: OCT 28: 5:30 am est: $1265.90 (NY: same time: $1266.00: 5:30AM)
London Second fix OCT 27: 10 am est: $1273.00 (NY same time: $1272.20 , 10 AM)
Shanghai premium in silver over NY: 80 cents.
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.
For comex gold:
For silver:
for the Oct contract month: 13 notices for 65,000 oz.

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on October 28, 2016.

VIX Derivatives At “Scariest” Level Since August 2015 Crash

While VIX remains subdued at bull-market-narrative-confirming levels, there are extreme concerns being exhibited in VIX options. There are currrently almost 7 times more ‘call’ options (bets on a higher VIX) than ‘put’ options oustanding on the ‘Fear’ index – the highest since August 2015, just days before China devalued and the US equity market crashed.
As the chart below shows, the spikes in VIX Call/Put ratio has tended to successfully lead a spike in VIX a number of times…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 28, 2016.

Is Apple’s Stock Cheap? Not To My Eyes

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of The Felder Report. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
Apple reported earnings this week and the latest numbers have some some pounding the table bullish. For example, here’s Forbes from an article titled ‘Why Apple Is Very Undervalued’: Apple still trades at 13x earnings. The S&P 500 trades at 16x. Apple trades at 13x next year’s projected earnings. The S&P 500 trades at 16.5x. Clearly it’s undervalued compared to the broader market. What about Apple’s monster cash position? Apple has even more cash now – a record $237 billion. If we excluded the cash from the valuation, Apple trades at 8.6x earnings. Though not an apples to apples (pun), and just for a reference point, that valuation would group Apple with the likes of these S&P 500 components that trade 8x earnings: Dow Chemical, Prudential Financial, Bed Bath & Beyond, a Norwegian chemical company (LBY), and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. It’s safe to say no one is debating whether or not Hewlett Packard is at the pinnacle of its business. Yet, if we strip out the cash in Apple, AAPL shares are trading at an HPE valuation.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on October 27, 2016.

Why Most Analysts’ Gold & Silver Price Forecasts Are Wrong

Precious metals investors are being misled by most analysts’ price forecasts because they do not understand the critical underlying fundamental value mechanism. Furthermore, there seems to be a great deal of animosity from the short-term trading analysts who view many in the precious metals community as pandering hype and conspiracies.
One of these analysts is Avi Gilburt of the Elliottwavetrader site. He criticizes the ‘Gold bugs’ in a few of his more recent articles, Who Do You Allow Yourself To Be Manipulated, Did Your Mother Write An Article On Gold, and Damn Manipulators.

This post was published at SRSrocco Report on October 27, 2016.

Jim Rickards on Fed Policy and the Market Impact of U.S. Elections

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of The Daily Reckoning. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
In Jim Rickards latest interview (full interview found here) while on location in Sydney, Australia he discussed his forthcoming book ‘The Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis.’ While at The Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) Rickards reveals his full take on the upcoming U. S elections and analysis on the latest Fed policy.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on October 27, 2016.

“World’s Most Bearish Hedge Fund” Shuts Emerging Markets Unit After 17% Loss

We had previously dubbed Horseman Capital the world’s most bearish hedge fund for one reason: as recently as a few months ago the firm’s Global Fund had taken its net equity short position to an unprecedented -100%. Horseman is now in the news once again as it is liquidating an emerging markets focused hedge fund following losses totaling 17% this year and difficulties raising capital, according to a letter sent to investors.
‘In light of fund returns and lack of investor interest, the directors of the fund have sadly decided to close the Horseman Emerging Market Fund Ltd.,” according to the letter seen by Bloomberg News. A spokesman for the London-based firm confirmed the contents of the letter.
“The resulting performance squeeze since February has made holding short positions a near impossibility for many funds and is typical of a true bear market,” Burke said in the letter.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 28, 2016.