“The Most Important Ever” Payrolls Preview (Again)

The distribution of guesses for tomorrow’s “most important payrolls print ever” or at least until next month, skews modestly to the upside after the biggest spike in ISM employment ever this week jarred some economists to become more optimistic, and side with Goldman Sachs expecting a Fed-inspiring drop in the unemployment rate, rise in average hourly earnings, and better than expected payrolls of 190K. As a result, while consensus expects a NFP rebound from 151K to 172K, the whisper number is around 200k. Anything above this would send December rate hike odds surging to the all important 70% or above, bond yields spiking and equities at the mercy of whichever way the risk parity machines were calibrated tomorrow.
Others disagree: Southbay Research is leaning on the bearish side, nothing the following positive and negative factors ahead of tomorrow’s report:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 6, 2016.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – A Financial System Based On Fraud

“Judge them by their works. What have they done for mankind beyond the spinning of airy fancies and the mistaking of their own shadows for gods?”
Jack London, The Iron Heel
Gold was pressed down to support at 1250 this morning.
This is a support level that goes back to the day before the Brexit announcement.
Gold and silver both bounced back a bit from the lows of the day. But the slamming of the metals has been particularly relentless ahead of this NFP.
The dollar rallied strongly today on European weakness and the notion that the Fed will be increasing rates aggressively in response to a stronger economy.
You know what I think about this, and I still do. I think they will do a ‘one and done’ probably in December, and that there is no sustainable recovery except that which is created by smoke and mirrors.
There was intraday commentary from Thomas Frank about the Presidential election and the hypocrisy of our political class here.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 06 OCTOBER 2016.

Lewitt Says Stay Short Yen and Euro

By now, it should be apparent to anybody with a functioning cerebellum that our political and economic policy leaders are abject failures. After years of impotent monetary policy at the hands of the Fed, decades of incompetent foreign policy by several administrations, a dormant and corrupt Congress, and an activist Supreme Court rewriting the Constitution, the world is going to hell in a handbasket.
It is timely, therefore, that Mike Judge’s 2006 comedy ‘Idiocracy’ is celebrating its 10th anniversary with special nationwide screenings beginning Oct. 4. The film tells the story of two people who participate in a top-secret military hibernation experiment. They awaken 500 years later to an America where advertising, commercialism, and anti-intellectualism run rampant and where the president is a former professional wrestler with severe anger management issues. These characters are luckier than the rest of us – they had to wait 500 years to live in a world governed by idiots. We were not as fortunate.
Some central bankers are finally starting to acknowledge their failures – but it’s too little, too late.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Michael E. Lewitt ‘ October 6, 2016.

Global debt hits all-time high of $152 trillion as IMF warns of world-wide economic stagnation

October 2016 – GLOBAL ECONOMY – Global debt has hit a record high of $152 trillion, weighing down economic growth and adding to risks that recovery could turn into stagnation or even recession, the International Monetary Fund has warned. In a worst-case scenario the IMF also fears that a wave of populist politics across the US and Europe could send globalization into reverse with protectionist policies hitting international trade, investment and migration, sending the world plunging into a prolonged period of stagnation.
The warning came after the IMF cut its growth forecasts for a series of countries around the world, leaving Britain the fastest growing economy in the G7. It is urging governments to help troubled banks in the worst-affected parts of Europe, spend more money on boosting economic growth where possible, and reform economies to increase GDP – as well as pushing to keep borders as open as possible. ‘At 225pc of world GDP, the global debt …is currently at an all-time high. Two-thirds, amounting to about $100 trillion, consists of liabilities of the private sector which can carry great risks when they reach excessive levels,’ the IMF said in its fiscal monitor

This post was published at UtopiatheCollapse on October 6, 2016.

Countries Are Now Preparing For An Economic Crisis – Episode 1094a

The following video was published by X22Report on Oct 6, 2016
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew wants debt restructure immediately. Initial jobless claims are at historic lows. Job cuts are on the rise. Dutch central bank is now moving their gold to a safer place, they are preparing for the economic crisis. Leaked EU document, shows the central bankers are trying to keep the CETA trade agreement on track. Deutsche Bank is in trouble and the EU and IMF wants to get rid of the bad loans on the banks books. The EU wants a tax funded bailout for the banks derivative problem.

Why Democracy Rewards Bad People

One of the most widely accepted propositions among political economists is the following: Every monopoly is bad from the viewpoint of consumers. Monopoly is understood in its classical sense to be an exclusive privilege granted to a single producer of a commodity or service, i.e., as the absence of free entry into a particular line of production. In other words, only one agency, A, may produce a given good, x. Any such monopolist is bad for consumers because, shielded from potential new entrants into his area of production, the price of the monopolist’s product x will be higher and the quality of x lower than otherwise.
This elementary truth has frequently been invoked as an argument in favor of democratic government as opposed to classical, monarchical or princely government. This is because under democracy entry into the governmental apparatus is free – anyone can become prime minister or president – whereas under monarchy it is restricted to the king and his heir.
However, this argument in favor of democracy is fatally flawed. Free entry is not always good. Free entry and competition in the production of goods is good, but free competition in the production of bads is not. Free entry into the business of torturing and killing innocents, or free competition in counterfeiting or swindling, for instance, is not good; it is worse than bad. So what sort of “business” is government? Answer: it is not a customary producer of goods sold to voluntary consumers. Rather, it is a “business” engaged in theft and expropriation – by means of taxes and counterfeiting – and the fencing of stolen goods. Hence, free entry into government does not improve something good. Indeed, it makes matters worse than bad, i.e., it improves evil.

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on Oct. 6, 2016.


Gold $1253.00 down $9.00
Silver 17.30 down 25 cents
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
Shanghai morning fix Oct 3 (10:15 pm est last night): $ holiday
Shanghai afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ holiday
London Fix: Sept 30: 5:30 am est: $1265.50 (NY: same time:1265.70 $: 5:30AM)
London Second fix Sept 30: 10 am est: $1254.50 (NY same time: $1254.50 , 10 AM)
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.
For comex gold:
the total number of notices filed today : 212 for 21200 oz (.92 tonnes)
For silver:
for the Oct contract month: 4 notices for 20,000 oz.
Let us have a look at the data for today

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on October 6, 2016.

Will Hurricane Matthew Trigger A Derivatives Melt-Down?

‘Catastrophe swaps’ – aka ‘weather derivatives’ – are an obscure derivatives ‘Frankenstein’ created under the auspices of helping property & casualty insurers and re-insurers to ‘transfer’ a portion of the risk on a portfolio of catastrophe insurance to the ‘marketplace.’
In reality, it was just another Wall Street mechanism designed to generate huge fees for Wall Street derivatives bankers. Without a doubt, just like financial market OTC derivatives and ‘portfolio insurance,’ these derivatives were significantly underpriced relative to the true statistical expected value of the contract. After all, if the cost of weather catastrophe protection carries a high premium, it wouldn’t generate much sales volume and thus wouldn’t generate fees for Wall Street.
Florida has addressed the problem of the cost of hurricane insurance by creating a State run insurance fund – the Citizens Property Insurance Corporation – to provide hurricane insurance to those who could not otherwise afford to pay the premiums in the private insurance marketplace. Notwithstanding the fact that anything like this run by any government will eventually lead to undesirable results, that fact that cost of hurricane risk insurance had to be socialized in Florida reflects the fact that the expected value of the cost of insuring against hurricane damage is higher than most households can afford.
The truth is, if you can’t afford the cost of hurricane insurance, that you should not be living in home that is potentially subjected to hurricane damage. Move inland.

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on October 6, 2016.

Global debt hits all-time high of $152 trillion; billionaire warns of ‘big squeeze’

‘This is a global problem,’ said billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio yesterday to a packed audience of central bankers.
‘Japan is closest to its limits, Europe is a step behind it, the US is a step or two behind Europe, and China is a few steps behind the United States.’
I can only imagine the mood in the room was a bit tense after that comment.
Mr. Dalio, founder of the $160 billion investment firm Bridgewater Associates, was invited to speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar yesterday.
Rather than gush about how wonderful the Fed’s zero interest rate policies have been since the financial crisis, Dalio gave them a fire hose of reality.
His primary thesis was that the debt supercycle that has lasted for decades is coming to an end, and that there’s going to be a ‘big squeeze’.
‘The biggest issue,’ he said, ‘is that there is only so much one can squeeze out of a debt cycle, and most countries are approaching those limits.’
The largest economies in the world – Japan, Europe, the United States, and China are racking up record amounts of debt and absolutely nearing those limits.

This post was published at Sovereign Man on October 6, 2016.

This Should Not Need To Be Said, But…

If you are anywhere within 20 miles of the east coast of Florida from roughly Okeechobee north to Jax, and not in a reinforced structure with a roof rated for sustained150mph winds, get the **** out right now.
There is a hell of a difference between sustained 120mph winds, which I rode out during Ivan, and 150. Most well-built structures with roofs in good condition will not be severely damaged or destroyed in a 120mph storm. Some will, but of those that are most of the time have the destruction initiated by flying debris. Having ridden out Ivan here it sounded like we were being shelled, and after the storm I discovered the cause of this was, believe it or not, pine cones impacting on the side of the building and my storm panels — at 120mph. In other words it’s not that the wind blows, it’s what the wind blows!
At 150mph all bets are off. Remember that the force applied goes up at the square of the velocity; the force is 50% higher for a “mere” 30mph increase. That which will be just fine in 120mph will be literal matchsticks at 150. Losing your roof (or garage door, which then lets the wind into the attic and blows off the roof, hurricane straps or no) is bad and will result in an utterly miserable experience as your home gets turned into soggy mush from the top down but losing an outside wall is likely to result in 150mph flying debris assaulting you for the balance of the storm and they may need a 5 gallon paint bucket for your remains.

This post was published at Market-Ticker on 2016-10-06.

IMF Chief Christine Lagarde Should Resign Immediatel

#IMF Shock Horror!
Contrary to what we'd previously said, #UK will be the fastest growing economy in Europe. #Ooops— Michael Fabricant (@Mike_Fabricant) October 4, 2016

Having noted previously IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde’s comments that for the IMF to “thrive”, the world has to “goes downhill,” today’s warning this morning that the global economy “may not have the tools to handle another shock,” seems to come at an inopportune time. Indeed, as Heat Street notes, it seems nothing can stop this woman…
Does being the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund mean never having to say sorry? As Christine Lagarde blunders on from one mishap to another with apparent insouciance, it would appear so.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 6, 2016.

UK Shocks All, Allows Fracking for the First Time in 5 Years

In a landmark decision, the UK Department of Communities and Local Government upheld on Thursday an appeal by gas exploration company Cuadrilla Resources, allowing it to plan for exploratory horizontal fracking at a site in Lancashire in northwestern England.
Cuadrilla had said in July of last year that it would appeal the Lancashire County Council’s decision to refuse it planning permission to drill, hydraulically fracture, and test the flow of gas from up to four exploration wells on each of two sites, Preston New Road and Roseacre Wood.
On Thursday, the department overturned the Lancashire County Council decision to refuse Cuadrilla applications for planning permission to frack at the Preston New Road site. The department also deferred a decision on the Roseacre Wood site to give more time to the company to provide further analyses and to allow other parties to express their opinion.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 10/06/2016.

Wall Street Earnings Recession is no cause for Worry; Stock Market Bull has been ignoring it.

Irony is the form of paradox. Paradox is what is good and great at the same time.
Friedrich Schlegel
We could sum it up in two words as to why earnings recession was, is and will be a non-event; Hot Money. However, for some strange reason when it comes to the markets individuals happen to love long explanations even though in most cases the long answers reveal a lot less than the short ones do. So let’s take a look at some of these meaningless statistics.
S&P 500 companies are going to report what will turn out to be the 6thconsecutive quarter of lower earnings. This is one of the longest earning slumps in over a decade and logic dictates that the markets should have been trending lower, but the opposite is taking place.
An investor following the old paradigm could not be faulted for making this statement ‘well then there is no way stocks can keep rising’ or how long can they grow in such an environment
To get the right answer, you need to ask the right question. Such questions are irrelevant in today’s environment, and answering such questions is not going to provide you with any insights on how to play this market. One person will state it cannot rise because of the negative factors listed above. The other penguin will say it can rise because inflation is low, unemployment is low, gas prices are low and a host of other rubbish.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 6 October 2016.

Asian Metals Market Update: October-6-2016

Deutsche Bank could be selling its gold to prevent bankruptcy. The German government has not commented on the bailout package. Weak technicals are further contributing to the fall in gold and silver. Fundamentals are weak for gold and silver for now.
Momentum is bearish for gold and silver. A below 160,000 US private ADP numbers failed to change the falling trend. The only hope for gold and silver will be that of Chinese mopping up surplus physical gold and silver next week (china is closed this week). Indian gold and silver demand should rise from next week.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 6 October 2016.

German CEOs Said To Offer “Single-Digit Billions” Capital Injection To Deutsche Bank

The Deutsche Bank trial balloons are on fire today.
Moments after DB slumped on a headline that contrary to yesterday’s Reuters report that the German government is holding “discreet talks” with DB, a headline hit that “there are no talks taking place with the DoJ, a German government official said”…

… a new report out of Handelsblatt announced that German companies are ready and willing to offer a “capital injection” in the low, single-digit billion euro range, according to Handelsblatt sources. More from HB:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 6, 2016.

Dutch Central Bank To Move Its Gold From Amsterdam To A Former Military Air Base

Nearly two years after the Netherlands made waves in the gold market when it announced that it had secretly repatriated 122 tons of physical gold from the New York Fed, this morning there was another surprising announcement out of the Dutch central bank which said is was planning to move the country’s gold reserves from the centre of Amsterdam to land owned by the defence ministry near Zeist. According to a statement by the bank, the security measures necessary to guard the gold are a problem for both staff and visitors, and as a result it would transfer the assets to a safer location.
The aim is to move the gold to the new location, Camp New Amsterdam, at the beginning of 2022. The new complex, dubbed the Cash Centre, will also be used to sort and distribute bank notes and to hunt for fake cash.
According to official data, some 189 tons of gold are stored in Amsterdam but the bank has total reserves of 612 tons. In order to spread the risk, Dutch gold is also held in central banks in New York, Ottawa and London.
Camp New Amsterdam, also known as Soesterberg Air Base, was a Royal Netherlands Air Force military air base located in Soesterberg, 14 kilometres (8.7 mi) east-northeast of Utrecht. It was first established as an airfield in 1911, and in 1913, the Dutch Army bought the field and established the Army Aviation Division.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 6, 2016.