Gold $1310.10 down $4.30
Silver 18.80 down 34 cents
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
Shanghai morning fix Oct 3 (10:15 pm est last night): $ holiday
Shanghai afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ holiday
London Fix: Sept 30: 5:30 am est: $1327.90 (NY: same time: $1326.90: 5:30AM)
London Second fix Sept 16: 10 am est: $1322.50 (NY same time: $1323.00 , 10 AM)
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.
For comex gold:
the total number of notices filed on 2nd day notice: 3005 for 300500 oz (9.347 tonnes)
For silver:
for the Oct contract month: 11 notices for 55,000 oz.
Let us have a look at the data for today

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on October 3, 2016.

September US Auto SAAR Declined YoY Despite Surge In Incentive Spending To Record Highs

The September U. S. auto SAAR declined YoY to 17.8mm units versus 18.1mm last year but came in better than wall street’s estimate of 17.5mm. The YoY decline came in spite of an increase in industry-wide incentive spending which soared to a record high of 12.6% of average transaction prices from 11.2% last year. Dealer inventory levels also ballooned at Ford and GM with Ford dealers now sitting on 80 days worth of inventory vs. only 68 days at this time last year while GM dealers are in a similar position with 79 days of inventory vs. 74 days last year.
Results by company were mixed with GM beating vs. wall street estimates, on much higher incentive spending, while VW was the biggest loser this month as it continues to suffer from it’s diesel emissions scandal.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 3, 2016.

Greatest. Fools. Ever!

Sizing Up The Bubble
‘In the ruin of all collapsed booms is to be found the work of men who bought property at prices they knew perfectly well were fictitious, but who were willing to pay such prices simply because they knew that some still greater fool could be depended on to take the property off their hands and leave them with a profit.’
Chicago Tribune, April 1890
Presently, the broad NYSE Composite Index is at a lower level than it set more than 2 years ago, in July 2014. Including dividends, the index has gained hardly 2%. Several indices dominated by large capitalization or speculative growth stocks, particularly the S&P 500, have performed better, but even here, the index is only a few percent above its December 2014 high. Over the past two years, the behavior of the stock market can be described less as an ongoing bull market than as the extended topping phase of what is now the third financial bubble since 2000.
The chart below shows the current setup in the context of monthly bars since 1995. After the third longest bull market advance on record, fresh deterioration in key trend-following components within our measures of market internals (see Support Drops Away) recently joined this extended, overvalued, overbought, overbullish peak, even as the S&P 500 hovers at the top of its monthly Bollinger bands (two standard deviations above the 20-period average) and cyclical momentum rolls over from a 9-year high. Taken together with other data, we continue to classify present conditions within the most hostile expected market return/risk profile we identify.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 3, 2016.

Nigel Farage’s Advice To Trump For Debate #2

One hundred days after his “Brexit” victory, Nigel Farage says he’s ready to help Donald Trump win his campaign, and, as he explained to CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, he has some advice for him on how to approach the next debate.
“What you’ve got to do, Donald, is talk to people sitting at home in their living rooms. Don’t get involved in a cat fight with Hillary,” Farage told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 3, 2016.

Deutsche Bank Will Collapse Without A Bailout or Bail-In

Currently the fate of Deutsche Bank is the most discussed topic in the financial markets. The stock price is rumor-driven, the most recent of which were unsubstantiated rumors of a settlement with the Justice Department that drove the stock up 14% last Friday. As it turns out, the bank has not yet initiated face-to-face settlement discussions.
The gyrations of this stock are like the exaggerated ‘wobbles’ of a spinning top right before it drops the floor (or table-top). Make no mistake, DB will collapse absent a bailout by the German Government – likely in collusion with the Fed, ECB and BoE – or a bail-in by creditors, including depositors.
The cost to buy credit protection on DB’s junior debt moved up to a new record high today. Certainly the OTC derivatives market is not convinced that DB CEO, John Cryan, is being forthright in his pleas to the market proclaiming that everything is under control. Judging from the timing of similar remarks make by Bernanke in reference to the mortgage market and by the CEO’s of Bear Stearns and Lehman, DB could be just a few months away from total collapse.
I wanted to share my comments on DB that I included in my weekly Short Seller’s Journal, released last night:

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on October 3, 2016.


A major ‘Sword of Damocles’ overhanging global stockmarkets has been the situation with Deutsche Bank, which has a monumental derivative book and whose stock has been plunging to new lows. We have largely ignored this situation up until now, on the assumption that everyone else will until the SHTF, a strategy that has until now paid off. However, we should keep in mind that this is potentially a very dangerous situation that could dwarf the Lehman debacle and send world markets into a tailspin. That said, however, we have just seen a turnaround on stupendous record volume in DB stock on Friday, which suggests that the crisis is set to ease at least over the short to medium-term, and if so world markets could rally. Mrs Merkel and the German government have been caught in a dilemma over DB – after lecturing Greece and other southern European governments about the virtues of propriety for ages they can’t very well wade in and rescue Deutsche Bank, so it looks like the bailout will have to come from an international consortium of banks, via the simple expedient of printing up another few trillion, which gets more habitual the more times you do it, and there’s always the fallback position of a coordinated international bail-in, although for obvious reasons they are unlikely to resort to this until they have implemented the cashless society. Cyprus was a trial balloon for this. In the meantime various creditors might take pity and engage in debt forgiveness. The movie Wall St 2 with Michael Douglas is recommended viewing for senior management at Deutsche Bank.
Thus it is ironic that at a time when there are a plethora of ‘end of the world’ articles inspired by Deutsche Bank’s troubles, Deutsche Banks’s latest chart shows what looks like a convincing reversal, with a prominent bull hammer appearing last Monday, the 1st sign of a reversal, then a Double Bottom with Monday’s low on Thursday, followed by a big white candle on titanic record volume on Friday. This could be a major bottom here and the bill for bailing out Deutsche Bank can surely be pushed onto either German taxpayers or international taxpayers, or both, in time-honored fashion, perhaps with a special exemption on this occasion for the Greeks, as an exercise in diplomacy.

This post was published at Clive Maund on October 2nd, 2016.

Judge Confirms Nothing Wrong With Trump’s Released Tax Records, Leaker Probably Broke The Law

Appearing on Fox and Friends Monday morning, former New Jersey Superior Court Judge and Senior Judicial Analyst for Fox News Channel Andrew Napolitano explained that Donald Trump’s tax records that were released by the New York Times on Sunday show that the presidential nominee did nothing wrong.
According to Napolitano, Trump was within the law when he declared a $916 million loss on his 1995 income tax returns, which amounts to a substantial deduction.
When asked by Fox’s Steve Doocy if Trump did anything wrong, the former judge responded: ‘No.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 3, 2016.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – When the Bubble Bursts

“The hypocrite’s crime is that he bears false witness against himself. What makes it so plausible to assume that hypocrisy is the vice of vices is that integrity can indeed exist under the cover of all other vices except this one.
Only crime and the criminal, it is true, confront us with the perplexity of radical evil; but only the hypocrite is really rotten to the core.”
Hannah Arendt
Gold and silver showed weakness during the London-New York trading hours today.
I suspect that we *could* see a bit of an overhang on price this week as the punters go for the sure thing of a decline in the metals for the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report this week.
Gee, I hope they don’t get whipsawed. LOL
There was a remarkable amount of gold deliveries on Friday as you can see below, all things considered for recent history in this metals slump.
As usual we saw JP Morgan, and this time the house at Goldman, snuffling up those claim tickets on gold.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 03 OCTOBER 2016.

Subprime Auto-Loan Backed Securities Turn Toxic

What will sink the US auto boom?
In the subprime auto loan market, things are turning ugly as delinquencies and losses have begun soaring. Specialized lenders – a couple of big ones, and a whole slew of small ones that service the lower end of the subprime market – slice and dice these loans, repackage them into auto-loan backed securities (auto ABS), and sell them to investors, such as yield-hungry pension funds.
Delinquencies of 60 days and higher among subprime auto ABS increased by 22% year-over-year in August, Fitch Ratings reported on Friday – now amounting to 4.9% of the outstanding balances that Fitch tracks and rates. And subprime annualized losses increased by 27% year-over-year, reaching 8.9% of the outstanding balances of auto ABS.
Even delinquencies among prime borrowers are rising, with delinquencies of 60 days or more increasing by 17% from a year ago, and annualized losses by 11%, though they’re still relatively tame at 0.4% and 0.6% respectively of the balances outstanding.
And according to Fitch, the toxicity level in the subprime auto ABS space isgoing to rise, with ‘subprime auto losses to pierce 10% by year-end.’

This post was published at Wolf Street on October 3, 2016.

We Are Witnessing The Economic Collapse In Realtime – Episode 1091a

The following video was published by X22Report on Oct 3, 2016
Greek people protested against more austerity. French unemployment soars. ING is laying of 7,000 employees. Automaker sales have declined for the month of September. Restaurant performance index declines as more restaurants close. US construction spending declines and signals a recession. Manufacturing slowed to a crawl, the dead cat bounce is over. ATM machines for Deutsche bank stopped working. US might be using fines against Deutsche Bank as financial war to keep Germany inline or to start the process of the collapse.

Italy Prepares For “Impact From Hypothetical Worsening” Of Deutsche Bank “Crisis”

In addition to a banking crisis that nobody wants to really admit is raging (even as German banks are now laying off thousands of workers, ignoring everything else), Germany has another embarrassing issue to deal with: pan-European Schadenfreude. It started last Friday with Greece which comforted its residents that the otherwise insolvent nation is “safe” from Deutsche Bank turmoil, after central bank head Stournaras said that “Greek banks not at risk from turmoil in European banks,” adding that ‘we now have the tools, which didn’t exist in the past, to tackle difficult situations.” He may have forgotten that Greece still has capital controls, and all Greek banks are currently insolvent, leading a state of vegetative existence only courtesy of the ECB’s constant liquidity lifeline.
Today it was that “other” peripheral nation, Italy.
As Bloomberg reported earlier Italian banks, Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, and central bank governor Ignazio Visco, “discussed the possible impact of a hypothetical worsening of a crisis at some large non-Italian banks” according to a Treasury official said. Clearly, the “non-Italian banks” referenced were just one: Deutsche Bank, although it was perhaps useful to distinguish that Italy is more focused on non-Italian banks, as opposed to its far more troubled local banks, of which Monte Paschi continues to be in bailout limbo with its third rescue attempt so far gaining zero traction.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 3, 2016.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – Quiet Trading Day On Rosh Hashana

Trading was quiet in New York today as a number of traders were off today for the Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashana.
Despite the lack of substantive follow up on the Deutsche Bank settlement rumours banks managed to bounce back a bit.
The markets were also cheered by ‘better than expected’ auto sales. Better than the Wall Street analysts estimated that is, but year-over-year decline.
Non-farm payrolls and the Fed will likely dominate the trade this week, with any of the several floating crisis points like Deutsche Bank shuffled to the ‘Mispriced Risks’ bin.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 03 OCTOBER 2016.

Italian Bond Yields Jump After Rome Confirms It Will Issue 50 Year Bonds

What emerged one month ago as a rumor that Italy was contemplating the issuance of half-century, or 50 year, bonds amid a “global search for yield” was confirmed earlier today, when Italy’s Treasury announced that Italy had hired Banca IMI, Goldman, HSBC, JPM and Unicredit as joint lead underwriters of this anticipated issue. “The new bond will ‘be launched in the near future subject to market
conditions” with a structure similar to regularly issued BTPs, the
Treasury said.
Once priced, Italy will become the latest nation to issue super-long bonds this year, following sovereigns including Belgium, France, Ireland and Spain in taking advantage of the historically low interest rates spurred by central bank stimulus. Italy’s Treasury announced the issuance ‘after a thorough market analysis,’ it said in a statement on Monday, Bloomberg reported earlier.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 3, 2016.

Pentagon Paid British PR Firm $500mm To Create Fake Al Qaeda Propaganda Videos

Per new discoveries revealed by the The Bureau of Investigative Journalism, the United States government paid over $500mm to a British public relations firm, Bell Pottinger, between May 2007 and December 2011 to create fake Al Qaeda propaganda films aimed at tracking terrorist viewing locations. According to a Bell Pottinger insider, propaganda films were categorized into three categories with ‘White” being accurately attributed, ‘Grey” being unattributed, and “Black” being falsely attributed material. The media firm created various types of content ranging from TV commercials to news items and “fake Al Qaeda propaganda films.”
The work consisted of three types of products. The first was television commercials portraying al Qaeda in a negative light. The second was news items which were made to look as if they had been ‘created by Arabic TV,’ Wells said. Bell Pottinger would send teams out to film low-definition video of al Qaeda bombings and then edit it like a piece of news footage. It would be voiced in Arabic and distributed to TV stations across the region, according to Wells.
The third and most sensitive program described by Wells was the production of fake al Qaeda propaganda films. He told the Bureau how the videos were made. He was given precise instructions: ‘We need to make this style of video and we’ve got to use al Qaeda’s footage,’ he was told. ‘We need it to be 10 minutes long, and it needs to be in this file format, and we need to encode it in this manner.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 3, 2016.

Is Deutsche Bank insolvent?

This is getting to be a habit. Previous late summer holidays by this correspondent coincided with the run on Northern Rock, and subsequently with the failure of Lehman Brothers. So the final crawl towards the probable nationalisation of Deutsche Bank came as no particular surprise this year, but it is tiresome to relate nevertheless.
The 2015 annual report for Deutsche Bank runs to some 448 pages, so one rather doubts if even its CEO, John Cryan, has read it all, or has a complete grasp of, for example, its 42 trillion in total notional derivatives exposure.
Is Deutsche Bank technically insolvent? We’d suggest that it probably is, but we have no dog in the fight, having never either owned banks, or shorted them. And like everybody else we assume that some kind of fix will soon be in – probably one that will further vindicate exposure to gold, both as money substitute and currency substitute. Professor Kevin Dowd, asking whetherDeutsche Bank ist kaputt, suggests that the bank’s derivatives exposure is difficult to assess rationally; the value of its derivatives book
‘is unreliable because many of its derivatives are valued using unreliable methods. Like many banks, Deutsche uses a three-level hierarchy to report the fair values of its assets. The most reliable, Level 1, applies to traded assets and fair-values them at their market prices. Level 2 assets (such as mortgage-backed securities) are not traded on open markets and are fair-valued using models calibrated to observable inputs such as other market prices. The murkiest, Level 3, applies to the most esoteric instruments (such as the more complex/illiquid Credit Default Swaps and Collateralized Debt Obligations) that are fair-valued using models not calibrated to market data – in practice, mark-to- myth. The scope for error and abuse is too obvious to need spelling out.’

This post was published at Sovereign Man on October 3, 2016.

FBI Allowed 2 Hillary Aides To “Destroy” Their Laptops In Newly Exposed “Side Agreements”

Just when you think the Hillary email scandal can’t get any more bizarre and corrupt, it does. According to a just released letter from the Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, Bob Goodlatte (R – Virginia), to Attorney General Lynch, the FBI apparently struck “side agreements” with both Cheryl Mills an Heather Samuelson to “destroy” their “laptops after concluding its search.”
While we parse the letter to understand what basis for action the FBI may have had when pursuing such a course of action, we can’t help but note that the FBI appears to have acted as a co-conspirator in what appears to be an unprecedented case of destruction of key evidence.
Below are some of the key excerpts from the letter (full document attached at the end of this post):

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 3, 2016.

World Bond & Stock Collapse Can Start this Fall! – Michael Pento Interview

The following video was published by VictoryIndependence on Oct 3, 2016
Returning guest Michael Pento is back to warn us of a bond collapse to coincide with the stock market crash we’re all expecting. There’s just too many reasons and too much debt hanging over the world for this one to be avoided. Combine that with that fact the FED has used up all their ammunition and can’t lower rates anymore. When a trigger event like Saudi Arabia selling their dollar-denominated assets or the Bank of Japan ending their debt buying, the whole system worldwide can spiral out of control.