Bank of America Warns of Imminent Recession: ‘Market So Fragile… It’s Downright Scary’

An official wave of ‘recession’ is nigh, and the potential for financial fallout and further hard times is perhaps imminent.
The Fed’s disastrous rescue plan after the 2008 financial crisis has left the U. S. economy in a fragile and vulnerable state.
Unlimited quantitative easing, or easy money for those at the top of the heap, have redirected investment into sectors that can’t or won’t stimulate the real economy that affects ‘everyday Americans.’ No jobs. Frozen wages. Mounting living costs. And an exploding debt bubble in several areas. You know the drill.
Now, even the banksters steering the system are being forced to admit that central bank efforts have failed to ‘stimulate demand,’ and that a contracted and dried up economic landscape is giving way to another step backwards – a recession that no one can sweep under the carpet.
via CNBC:

This post was published at shtfplan on October 11th, 2016.

Sterling Surges After UK PM May Appears To Back Away From ‘Hard’ Brexit

Following a 240 pip plunge in Cable today, the pound is frenetically bouncing in early Asian trading after Bloomberg reports that UK Prime Minister Theresa May has accepted that Parliament should be allowed to vote on UK leaving the EU (but in a way that gives her space to negotiate) but adding that there shouldn’t be an attempt to block Brexit.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 11, 2016.

How Columbus Revolutionized the Global Economy

Columbus Day this year brought with it the usual acrimony, and thisSalon article hit the usual talking points by declaring European settlement of the Americas to be “the most massive act of genocide” in world history.
Salon quotes historian David Stannard who writes: “[O]n average, for every 20 natives alive at the moment of European contact – when the lands of the Americas teemed with numerous tens of millions of people – only one stood in their place when the bloodbath was over.’
Figures like these remain hotly debated, but few disagree that, ultimately, the number of natives was extremely small when compared to the overall size of the Americas. In other words, the number of people relative to the amount of natural resources in the New World was tiny, and population density in the Americas continues to be low by global standards even today.
While many pundits and historians commonly debate the violent conflicts between tribes and settlers in the popular media, we hear far less from scholars who take a serious look at the economic implications of the relatively underpopulated lands in the Americas.

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on Oct 11, 2016.


Gold $1254.00 up $1.50
Silver 17.47 up 5 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold: 1256.00
Silver: 17.66
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
Shanghai morning fix OCT 11 (10:15 pm est last night): $ 1262.18
Shanghai afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ 1263.11
London Fix: OCT 11: 5:30 am est: $1256.40 (NY: same time: $1256.40: 5:30AM)
London Second fix OCT 11: 10 am est: $1253.45 (NY same time: $1254.10 , 10 AM)
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on October 11, 2016.

The Central Banks Have Taken The First Step In Moving Towards A Cashless Society – Episode 1098a

The following video was published by X22Report on Oct 11, 2016
Euro zone approves bailout for Greece so the country just added debt onto debt. The younger generation are being blamed for the economy. They aren’t spending, they aren’t buying homes, this is why the economy is not doing well. Fed labor market condition crashes. US Government / Central Bankers take the first step and are preparing for block-chain technology to move the public to a cashless society

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – La Douleur du Monde

Stocks were in sell-off mode today as rude reality gave the paper assets reverie a rap on the knuckles.
So, you might ask, ‘why didn’t gold rally as a safe haven?’
And all you need to do is look at the US dollar chart. The dollar was rallying in the forex crosses as the Chinese continued to depreciate the yuan and the forex traders were barfing on the Brexit pound.
Speaking of jinxes, Krugman was congratulating himself today on his call that Brexit would have no negative impact on the British economy. Paul, they have not Brexited yet. And in addition to the usual economic lags, the certainty of Brexit and what it might really mean is hardly clear yet.
The dollar is now overbought, and at a high from earlier this year. But it may have some more upside, especially in the cross trades which tend to ‘overshoot.’ But longer term a strong dollar is anathema to the real economy exports. Of course if Hillary has her way, there will be no national borders, and we will all serve one big happy new world order ruled by the self-appointed philosopher kings.
As you know, sometimes the precious metals are traded as currencies, and their prices rise and fall without regard to fundamentals and even risks. The aggressive and often officially sanctioned mispricing of risk is one of the hallmarks of the serial bubbles which populate the landscape of our markets since the recent turn of the century.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 11 OCTOBER 2016.

How To Avoid Being A Retail Bag Holder

Every single boilerplate disclaimer out there says past performance does not predict future returns. They then proceed to tell you about their magical formula, their genie in the lamp, their fibonacci retracement, or their fund manager from Harvard who hasn’t blown up his first trading account yet.
What if past performance actually does predict future returns, and it just so happens to be something as simple as mean reversion in weekly price performance?
One chart shows exactly why weekly price performance matters. This is what happened to anyone who only bought after the market was up for the week.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 11, 2016.

“Liars For Hire” – Confessions Of A Former Journalist From The Media Establishment

How to buy friends and shill for enemies
I doubt anyone needs to be reminded that the media is rotten to the core; even the most reluctant and closed-minded people are accepting this as a given now. But despite the media being widely condemned nowadays (my special thanks to Germans for bringing the word ‘Lgenpresse’ back), few people know or understand what’s really going on in the journalistic kitchens, where the foul slop of lies that people are fed every day is cooked up. However, there is always a way in – through purposeful infiltration or, in my case, by accident.
I have an old friend – let’s call him Sven – whom I always knew as a kind-hearted and sincere man. However, these traits are also coupled with always assuming the best of people and being rather naive. Due to this, he keeps ending up in awkward and sometimes dangerous situations. One of them turned out to be a short stint as a journalist for a popular online newspaper. He barely maintained contact during his employment and eventually went completely off the grid. In about a month, he resurfaced a changed man, and not for the better. As he explained, he quit the job and then shut himself in for a while, armed with nothing but alcohol, to cope with the depression working as a journalist gave him.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 11, 2016.

What the Heck’s Going on with the New Global Reserve Currency, the Chinese Yuan?

A ‘structural change’: capital flight in yuan.
The Chinese yuan fell to 6.722 to the US dollar currently, the weakest since September 2010. It’s down 3.3% so far this year. OK, a squiggle compared to the wholesale drubbing the UK pound has been taking since the Brexit vote, but there’s a difference: the yuan gets managed with an iron fist.
Some folks interpret this to mean that the People’s Bank of China has been weakening the yuan to gain some trade advantages and revive the export boom and kick economic growth back into gear. But evidence is piling up that the PBOC instead has been trying to slow down the yuan’s descent.
And this happened just days after the yuan joined the IMF’s special drawing rights (SDR) basket of reserve currencies, a huge milestone for the Chinese government that has been laboring on the internationalization of the yuan for years, mostly in tiny baby steps.
But the yuan is up against the mega-problems in China’s debt plagued economy, and it’s pressured down by enormous and, it turns out, not officially disclosed capital outflows.
‘If that trend persists, expect further yuan weakness versus the greenback,’ wrote Krishen Rangasamy, Senior Economist Economics and Strategy at the National Bank of Canada.

This post was published at Wolf Street by Wolf Richter ‘ October 11, 2016.

“Investment Returns Will Be Very Low Going Forward” Ray Dalio Says Gold Could Prove Preferable

Ray Dalio’s $150 billion Bridgewater Associates managed modest gains across its main strategies last month – even as macro funds have suffered amid policy and political uncertainty. However, the manager of the world’s largest hedge fund warns ‘Investment returns will be very low going forward,’ in his latest investor remarks, suggesting that betting on gold could prove preferable.
Bond-Stock Correlation hovers near record highs

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 11, 2016.

Small Business Optimism Index Disappoints … Again (Only Above 100 Once Since 2006)

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was released this morning and it was disappointing. The survey was for 95, but the print was 94.1.
But the bigger picture is that small business optimism has been consistently below 100 since November 2006, with piecing the 100 level only once in December 2014. And it has been all down hill since then.
And all the monetary easing by The Federal Reserve has done little to improve small business optimism.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on October 11, 2016.

BofA On “Low Vol” – The Next Shoe To Drop

During the turbulent start to the year, there were few places where investors could take refuge from the daily volatility, and as a result, the so-called “low vol” stocks and strategies emerged as one of the preferred hangouts until the transitory turbulence ended. However, even with a return to more normal market levitation, many investors have so far failed to exit the safety of the “low vol” cave, in many cases conveniently padded by dividend payments for stocks that did not promise much upside, excitement or beta, but certainly offered stability.
But, as BofA’s Savita Subramanian warns, “Low Vol” may be the next shoe to drop.
As BofA’s strategist notes, low volatility strategies have seen a parabolic increase in inflows since late 2014 as investors have chased the perceived safety of these strategies. These inflows helped push valuations in Staples and Utilities to elevated levels.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 11, 2016.

SP 500 and NDX Future Daily Charts – Stock Bubble Spanked By Reality

Stocks sold off today triggered by a wide miss by Alcoa last night as they kicked off the third quarter earnings season.
Other corporate bad news added a bit of fuel to the reversion to reality.
We will be getting the Fed minutes tomorrow which may stir the pot a bit. I do expect them to give it a go for a ‘one and done’ in December. It has nothing to do with the economy, except to the extent that it is not falling apart, making their policy-needs driven rate increase too embarrassing to justify.
The market is fragile, and looks a bit toppy. But given the central banks and their liquidity life support for it, and the self-absorbed narcissism of the fatuous class, stocks may keep toddling along until ‘something happens.’

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 11 OCTOBER 2016.

One World Currency, The Rise Of The SDR: Jeff Berwick on A Minute To Midnight

The following video was published by TheDollarVigilante on Oct 11, 2016
Jeff is interviewed by Tony Koretz for A Minute To Midnight, topics include: the evils of central banking, the US petrodollar, US wars of imperial aggression, possible war with Russia, the destruction of the global economy, one world government, the SDR currency, China and the shift to the east, the collapse of the western standard of living, Adam Weishaupt and the destruction of the family, propaganda and indoctrination in the US, politics and gold, collapse is a mathematical certainty, hyperinflation, massive government debt, Deutsche Bank the first domino? the intrinsic value of precious metals, some investment advice!

The Total Amount Of Debt In The World Just Hit A Record $152,000,000,000,000 (152 Trillion)

f anyone ever asks you how much debt there is in the world, now you will know the answer. According to the IMF, the total amount of debt around the globe has now hit a staggering 152 trillion dollars. That is an amount of money that is almost unimaginable, and the IMF says that it is equivalent to 225 percent of global GDP. It is the biggest debt bubble in the history of the planet, and it is rising at an extremely alarming pace. Experts all over the world agree that when this debt bubble finally bursts, it is going to create an economic crisis on a scale that humanity has never seen before.
When I first saw this number I was absolutely astounded at how reckless we all have become, and I was also amazed that there was hardly anything about this announcement in the mainstream media in the United States. The following excerpt comes from a story in a major British news source…
The International Monetary Fund has urged governments to take action to tackle a record $152tn debt mountain before it triggers a fresh global financial and economic crisis.
Warning that debt levels were not just high but rising, the IMF said it was vital to intervene early in order to mitigate the risks of a repeat of the damaging events that began with the collapse of the US sub-prime housing bubble almost a decade ago.
It said that new research in its half-yearly fiscal monitor covering 113 countries had shown that debt was currently 225% of global GDP, with the private sector responsible for two-thirds of the total.

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on October 11th, 2016.

Doug Noland: Hurricane Matthew, Near Misses and Flash Crashes

Rising financial stocks notwithstanding, I’d be remiss for not suggesting that this week’s big movers (pound, yen, bunds, European periphery debt, Treasuries and gold) all have big derivatives markets. Are markets now more vulnerable to illiquidity and so-called ‘flash crashes’ because of heightened stress (and risk aversion) at Deutsche Bank and the other big derivatives operators more generally?
I’ll posit that to sustain the global government finance Bubble at this point requires both ongoing securities market inflation and ever-increasing monetary inflation. Rather suddenly it seems that global central banks are much less confident in QE infinity. There is serious disagreement in Japan as to how to move forward with monetary policy. And there were even this week rumors of ECB ‘tapering’ ahead of the March 2017 designated end to its QE program. Say what? Are the ECB ‘hawks’ ready to take control?
Meanwhile, markets seem to be pointing to an important downside reversal following this year’s historic melt-up in global bond prices. With Italian, Portuguese and UK bonds leading this week’s losers list, it’s tempting to imagine that fundamentals might start to matter again. And it’s going to be a real challenge to sustain global Credit growth in the face of rising bond yields. All bets are off if China’s latest attempt to tighten mortgage Credit actually works. That’s one scary Credit Bubble, and there are already indications that outflows are picking up again from China.

This post was published at Credit Bubble Bulletin

Goldman Sachs Sees ‘Buying Opportunity’ If Gold’s Slump Gets Worse

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says that a strategic buying opportunity may open up in gold should prices drop substantially below $1,250 an ounce, with bullion offering investors a way to protect themselves against risks to global growth and limits to central banks’ effectiveness.
While the decline over the past month has been in line with the bank’s bearish outlook, there could be a case for purchases if the sell-off deepens, according to analysts including Jeffrey Currie and Max Layton. On Friday, bullion dropped to as low as $1,241.51 an ounce before recovering to $1,253.92, on course for the biggest weekly slump in almost two years.
“We would view a gold sell-off substantially below $1,250 as a strategic buying opportunity, given substantial downside risks to global growth remain, and given that the market is likely to remain concerned about the ability of monetary policy to respond to any potential shocks to growth,’ Currie and Layton wrote in the Oct. 6 report.
Goldman said it remains broadly neutral on the outlook for bullion through the year-end after the correction. The bank noted that the drop in prices hadn’t been driven by sales of bullion from holdings in exchange-traded funds, which have expanded this week as of Thursday.
‘The move lower does not appear to be driven by physical gold ETF liquidation,’ the analysts said. ‘The drivers of strong physical ETF and bar demand for gold during 2016 are likely to remain intact, including continued strong physical demand for gold as a strategic hedge.’

This post was published at bloomberg

China Foreign-Exchange Reserves Drop as Yuan Pressures Build

China’s foreign-exchange reserves declined more than expected in September, amid speculation the central bank resumed selling dollars to support the yuan.
The stockpile shrank to $3.17 trillion last month, the People’s Bank of China said in a statement Friday. That’s the lowest since April 2011 and below the median estimate of $3.18 trillion in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The decline is a reflection of both currency intervention and capital outflows, according to Zhao Yang, Nomura Holdings Inc.’s chief China economist.
Declines in the world’s biggest currency stockpile have slowed this year after falling from a record $4 trillion in June 2014 amid speculation the yuan would continue to depreciate and the Federal Reserve would raise borrowing costs. Investors are pricing in a 63 percent probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by year-end, according to Fed funds futures prices tracked by Bloomberg.
‘The drop shows that yuan depreciation pressures remain intact despite the PBOC’s efforts to stabilize the currency,’ said Kenix Lai, a Hong Kong-based foreign-exchange analyst at Bank of East Asia Ltd. ‘The likelihood of a Fed interest-rate increase in December — as the U.S. economy improves — is adding to the stress.’

This post was published at bloomberg

The Turnkey Tyranny Game Plan

‘Hence we may learn the lesson that on seizing a state, the usurper should make haste to inflict what injuries he must, at a stroke, that he may not have to renew them daily but be enabled by their discontinuance to reassure men’s minds, and afterward win them over by benefits…. Injuries, therefore, should be inflicted all at once, that their ill savor being less lasting may the less offend; whereas, benefits should be conferred little by little, that so they may be more fully relished.
– Niccol Machiavelli, The Prince, Book VIII
Everything is in place. Do you see anything missing?
Edward Snowden revealed that the NSA collects everything on everyone. Thomas Drake, the former NSA senior official who blew the whistle from inside the organization, proved that it would have been cheaper and more useful to keep only information on suspected terrorists – but Cheney and Obama wanted it all.
And they got it. Snowden’s in exile and Drake, harassed by the DoJ for four years, lost his job and is now a genius at an Apple Store in Maryland.
So the fix was in. All that was left was the implementation.
Why are the most advertised Gold and Silver coins NOT the best way to invest?
And that was easy. Propelled by fear of Islamic terrorism, a complacent Republican Congress ignored widespread anger and hostility towards the Thought Police after Snowden’s revelation. In order to intensify that fear, Obama has allowed thousands of unscreened Moslems into the country, including an unknown number of covert Jihadist wannabes. In response, fearful Americans will be stampeded into subjection (‘security’) rather than liberty. After all, terrorists cause chaos and tyranny flourishes amid chaos. ‘Never let a crisis go to waste,’ wrote a twenty-first century minor Machiavelli.

This post was published at Lew Rockwell on October 11, 2016.

US Retailers Blame “Election Preoccupation” For Slumping Sales

While record food-stamps, sinking real wages, and soaring healthcare and shelter costs are all in the realm of peddled fiction; US Retailers are never shy of alternative excuses for their underperformance. It’s too-hot, it’s too-cold; it’s too-low gas prices; it’s too-high gas prices; but now, as Bloomberg reports, US retailers and restaurants are floating another excuse to explain their lackluster performance – it’s the election, stupid!
To hear retail executives tell it, the battle for the presidency between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton is causing Americans to put off buying everything from romance novels at Barnes & Noble and jeans from the Gap to burritos at Yum! Brand Inc.’s Taco Bell. They might even be delaying wedding engagements, not good news for companies like Signet Jewelers Ltd.
‘The preoccupation with this election is keeping them at home, glued to their TVs and at their desktops,’ said Len Riggio, the founder and chief executive officer of Barnes & Noble Inc. This election is ‘unprecedented in terms of the fear, anger and frustration being experienced by the public.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 11, 2016.