Dow, Gold and Silver…A Last Stand, A Fake Out And A Surge

The Dow hit a marginal new all time high during the last week. So let’s see where things stand there first.

Before we get to the present, let’s take a quick look at the past. We can see the previous top in July was accompanied by triple bearish divergences in several indicators, being the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), Stochastic indicator and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. That led to a significant decline.
Then we had a rally that clipped the previous high by a mere two points. I thought this would be a bear rally but have been proven wrong. However, a profit was taken by identifying the previous top and the start of the rally. Some profit was given back re-shorting but the mistake was quick to be picked up so no major damage was done. It’s nice when you can be wrong and still make money! But that’s chump change as far as I’m concerned. I’m after the big plays.
So that brings us to the present.

This post was published at Gold-Eagle on August 31, 2014.

Prepare For Longterm Instability and Hardship

Unlike the normal business cycle that allows for a recession every few years to clear out the mal-investments and keep the system functioning properly, the current cycle has been artificially induced with money that has unseated the foundation of good financial practices and caused a series of bubbles that must pop at some point. When this happens the business cycle will be heavily damaged and will take many years to reestablish some type of normalcy.
If you think of a cycle as a pendulum swinging back and forth, you must realize that the further it swings to one side, the further it will swing to the other to balance itself. That is what we must realize with the current bubble boom in the financial sectors. The further out of balance they get, the further they will need to swing back to preserve equilibrium. When these bubbles finally pop, the offsetting swing will be monumental. A normal recession of a few years will be exaggerated to a multi-year disaster.
These are the type of conditions that usher in depressions of long duration. This bubble induced mania is far beyond anything experienced in human history and will result in an equally disastrous financial contraction destroying paper assets and making hard assets desirable and difficult to acquire in the aftermath.
In this type of situation, hard assets and a wide knowledge base are as good as it gets. The ownership of capital equipment that produces necessary consumer goods and the ability to finance yourself internally combined with sufficient knowledge to use these resources will provide a safe harbor to get through the difficulties that arise. Becoming your own bank requires the ability to store financial assets such as precious metals and diamonds that have universal value. This is one of the few ways to store wealth that can survive such market destruction.

This post was published at Silver Bear Cafe on August 30, 2014.


It’s my fault.
Those who have been reading some of my internet scribblings over the past months or years know I’ve been going down a very interesting path. Having graduated with a Masters degree from the school of hard knocks in Austrian Economics and political “science” over the last decade I’ve begun to dig even deeper into an understanding of the very question of life. Heck, we’ll see if I am still alive by the end of this blog entry. Yes, I am serious about that (I think I will be… but I’ll explain below why I haven’t killed myself yet).
I also want to state that I am not drunk and am just a few sips in to a glass of red wine right now and won’t be drunk by the end of this article. This is all coming straight from my heart after a year of looking in the mirror daily and asking myself who is this person and does he deserve to be here and after spending most of the day today meditating in my underwear and a lot of eye water .
This may get wacky or weird by the time I’m done writing. But before I drizzle digital ink upon you I do want to clarify a few things about the Galt’s Gulch Chile (GGC) clusterfuck.
It appears that many people have taken Wendy McElroy’s and my writings as being that GGC was and is an outright scam, all the money has been stolen and fuck you very much. That is not the case at all if everything I currently know about it is true. I have a fairly high degree of certainty that GGC owns the property where it has been selling lots and that that property has water rights. This is information I have been told by GGC’s past lawyer about a year ago… which was also the last time I had any access to information to anything related to GGC. It has more or less been verified by others investors over the course of the last year as well.

This post was published at Dollar Vigilante on August 30, 2014.

Sprott’s Thoughts: Rick Rule—A Briefing on Private Placements

Some investors are able to participate in private placements, where a company raises money by offering new shares. For U.S. investors to participate in a private placement, they must be suitably qualified for the offering. Suitability depends on the exemptions under the Securities Act of 1933 through which the company is able to offer new shares. This loosely means that the investor must meet a certain threshold of net worth, income, or investable assets in order to participate.
Private placements may be done by private or publicly trading companies. When a public company issues shares in a private placement, the new shares are not freely tradable, but must be held for a specified period of time, and must have their trading restriction lifted by the issuer’s legal counsel before they can be sold.
Rick Rule believes that if you’re able to take part in these transactions, they could be attractive ways to take advantage of a recovery in natural resources

This post was published at Sprott Global

Labor Day 2014: Economic solutions already here for full employment, zero public deficits and debts

Labor Day is an Orwellian holiday: US ‘leaders’ psychopathically pretend to care about American labor while lying about a real unemployment rate of close to 25% (the so-called ‘official’ rate excludes under-employed and discouraged workers).
Along with unemployment, Americans receive policy enabling oligarchs to ‘legally’ hide $20 to $30 trillion in offshore tax havens in a rigged-casino economy designed for ‘peak inequality.’ For comparison, $1 to $3 trillion ends global poverty forever, saving a million children’s lives every month from slow and gruesome death (here, here). And, as always, US ‘leaders’ lie-begat Americans intounlawful Wars of Aggression (in comparison, 11 days of US war cost would pay for all tuition of US college students).
Americans could have full-employment and zero public deficits and debt with monetary and credit reform.
These solutions are obvious upon a few moments of your attention. See for yourself:
What is monetary and credit reform?
Since the 1913 legislation of the Federal Reserve, the US has had a national ‘debt system;’ the Orwellian opposite of a monetary system. What we use for money is created as a debt, with the consequence of unpayable and increasing aggregate debt. This is a description of the simple mechanics of adding negative numbers. Although it’s taught in every macroeconomics course in structure, the consequences of increasing and unpayable debt are omitted (unpayable because it destroys what is used for money, and eventually the debt becomes tragic-comic in amount).

This post was published at Washingtons Blog on August 30, 2014.

Bank of Japan Refrains From Deepening Stimulus

Every year, top global financial policymakers gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for a summit. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda was there, and delivered a disappointing message to those who were waiting for a ramp-up of the bank’s money printing. Although he allowed for future re-evaluation, he said he believed that Japan was on target to reach its 2 percent inflation goal by 2015, and finally break out of its long ‘deflation trap.’
Kuroda Disappoints At Jackson Hole

Some outside analysts don’t agree. By its own admission, the BOJ sees inflation tracking down to 1 percent by December of this year. Morgan Stanley researchers point out that to reach the inflation target, Japan’s core CPI would have to hit 2 percent by April 2015 and stay there through year-end.
[See Related: Detlev Schlichter – Euthanasia of the Japanese Rentier] Reporters at Jackson Hole peppered Mr. Kuroda with questions about possible additional efforts beyond the BOJ’s bond purchases – such as price-level targeting (which would involve a deliberate inflation overshoot to compensate for previous inflation that was below target) or nominal GDP targeting (which would push easing until a nominal GDP target was reached). He demurred, saying that the current program was enough and would stay in place, although he wouldn’t rule anything out for the future.
Abenomics Hits a Wall Japan has never recovered from its early 1990s economic and financial market bust, languishing in sub-par growth for over two decades. In 2012, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office promising ‘three arrows’ to hit the target of economic revival.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 08/28/2014.

It’s Settled: Central Banks Trade S&P500 Futures

Based on the unprecedented collapse in trading volumes of cash products over the past 6 years, one thing has become clear: retail, and increasingly, institutional investors and traders are gone, probably for ever and certainly until the Fed’s market-distorting central planning ends. However, one entity appears to have taken the place of conventional equity traders: central banks.
Courtesy of an observation by Nanex’s Eric Hunsader, we now know, with certainty and beyond merely speculation by tinfoil fringe blogs, that central banks around the world trade (and by “trade” we meanbuy) S&P 500 futures such as the E-mini, in both futures and option form, as well as full size, and micro versions, in addition to the well-known central bank trading in Interest Rates, TSY and FX products.
In fact, central banks are such active traders, that the CME Globex has its own “Central Bank Incentive Program”, designed to “incentivize” central banks to provide market liquidity, i.e., limit orders, by paying them (!) tiny rebates on every trade. Because central banks can’t just print whatever money they need, apparently they need the CME to pay them to trade.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/30/2014.

Is There Capitalism After Cronyism?

The more the Status Quo pursues the same old Keynesian Cargo Cult script of central planning and free money for financiers, the more self-liquidating the system becomes.
Judging by the mainstream media, the most pressing problems facing capitalism are:
2) the failure of laissez-faire markets to regulate their excesses, a common critique encapsulated by Paul Craig Roberts’ recent book The Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism.
These critiques (and many similar diagnoses) reach a widely shared conclusion: capitalism must be reformed to save it from itself.
The proposed reforms align with each analyst’s basic ideological bent. Piketty’s solution to rising wealth inequality is the ultimate in statist centralization: a global wealth tax.
Roberts and others recommend reforming capitalism to embody social purpose and recognize environmental limits. Exactly how this economic reformation should be implemented is a question that sparks debates across the ideological spectrum, but the idea that capitalism can be reformed is generally accepted by left, right and libertarian alike.
Socio-economist Immanuel Wallerstein asks a larger question: can the current iteration of global capitalism be reformed, or is it poised to be replaced by some other arrangement?

This post was published at Charles Hugh Smith on SATURDAY, AUGUST 30, 2014.

CFR Recommends Policy Shift that is Very Bullish for Gold

The ‘Foreign Affaird’ publication of the influential and policy-setting Council of Foreign Relations made an announcement that could have huge ramifications for monetary policy going forward. In an article titled ‘Print Less but Transfer More: Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People,’ the authors argue that the current quantitative easing and debt monetization is not generating broad-based stimulus to the economy.
To some extent, low inflation reflects intense competition in an increasingly globalized economy. But it also occurs when people and businesses are too hesitant to spend their money, which keeps unemployment high and wage growth low. In the eurozone, inflation has recently dropped perilously close to zero. And some countries, such as Portugal and Spain, may already be experiencing deflation. At best, the current policies are not working; at worst, they will lead to further instability and prolonged stagnation.
Governments must do better. Rather than trying to spur private-sector spending through asset purchases or interest-rate changes, central banks, such as the Fed, should hand consumers cash directly. In practice, this policy could take the form of giving central banks the ability to hand their countries’ tax-paying households a certain amount of money. The government could distribute cash equally to all households or, even better, aim for the bottom 80 percent of households in terms of income. Targeting those who earn the least would have two primary benefits. For one thing, lower-income households are more prone to consume, so they would provide a greater boost to spending. For another, the policy would offset rising income inequality.
This is a huge announcement because it would lead to a major increase in the velocity of money. While a tremendous amount of money was created following the financing crisis, it has yet to result in significant inflation as a good amount of it remains parked in excess reserves and in corporate accounts. This has brought the velocity of money to the lowest levels in decades.

This post was published at GoldStockBull on August 27th, 2014.

Keynesian Fairy Tale Alert: Establishment Citadel – Council On Foreign Relations – -Peddles Helicopter Money Plan

Folks, take economic cover. There is already a rabid financial mania loose in the land as reflected in the irrational exuberance of the stock market, but, in fact, the fairy tale economics fueling the current financial bubble is fixing to leap into a whole new realm of lunacy. Namely, an out-and-out drop of ‘helicopter money’ to the main street masses.
That’s right. The Keynesian brain freeze has so deeply infected the Wall Street/ Washington corridor that the grey old lady of the establishment, the Council On Foreign Relations, has lent the pages of its prestigious journal, Foreign Affairs, to the following blithering gibberish:
It’s well past time, then, for U. S. policymakers – as well as their counterparts in other developed countries – to consider a version of Friedman’s helicopter drops….. Rather than trying to spur private-sector spending through asset purchases or interest-rate changes, central banks, such as the Fed, should hand consumers cash directly. In practice, this policy could take the form of giving central banks the ability to hand their countries’ tax-paying households a certain amount of money. The government could distribute cash equally to all households or, even better, aim for the bottom 80 percent of households in terms of income. Targeting those who earn the least would have two primary benefits. For one thing, lower-income households are more prone to consume, so they would provide a greater boost to spending. For another, the policy would offset rising income inequality.
I have actually checked, and, no, the publishing arm of the Council on Foreign Relations has not been hacked by writers from the Onion. This monetary insanity is for real!

This post was published at David Stockmans Contra Corner on August 29, 2014.

Can A National Quasi-Religion (Pro Sports) Go Broke?

Attending costly games is on the margins of the household budget. When the credit card gets maxed out, attending is no longer an option.
Please understand I’m not suggesting professional sports isn’t the greatest thing since sliced bread: I’m simply asking if attending pro sports games has become unaffordable to the average American.
Who cares as long as we can watch the games for free on television, right? That raises another issue: in the next recession, will advertisers still pay billions of dollars for broadcast TV ads on sports channels when ads on mobile devices distributed via Big Data analysis can directly target the (shrinking) populace who still has disposable income to spend?
Before we look at the money side of pro sports, let’s note the glorious shared experience of “our team” winning and hated rivals losing. Sports is one of the few experiences that unites a remarkably diverse populace, and one of the few spheres of life that isn’t politicized to ruination.
We all get to live vicariously through sports, and the stranger cheering beside us is suddenly a “friendly” in a largely hostile world.

This post was published at Of Two Minds on August 29, 2014.

MUST READ: A Fraud By Any Other Name Is Still A Fraud

Once upon a time, there was a thing called a ‘free-market’ and for a time nations strove toward this ideal. To wit, a free market economy was a market-based economy where prices for goods and services would be set freely by the forces of supply and demand and allowed to reach their point of equilibrium without intervention by government policy, and it typically entailed support for highly competitive markets and private ownership of productive enterprises.
But power and belief shifted and faith now resides in governmental fiscal policy (spend more, tax less) and central banker interest rate policy (make money ever cheaper) to avoid the free markets down-cycles and extend its up-cycles infinitely. The central bank high priests have determined free markets are better replaced by command economies and further the priests’ purport they know appropriate levels of demand and supply…and absent the achievement of these levels, they will enforce their will even if the Fed’s programs are the likely cause that retards the Fed’s from achieving their stated goals!
But this has gone so far that now all we have is fiscal imbalances (the true nature is hidden by accounting fraud) and central bank centralized command of financial valuations. And I’m not being dramatic… I truly mean the Fed and central bankers are controlling the pricing of nearly everything financial (including sovereign debt / bonds, stocks, real estate, commodity prices, etc.) via interest rate targets and bond purchasing programs. The politicization and centralized control has turned the economic indexes into the central banks gauges which they actively ‘manage’.

This post was published at SRSrocco Report on August 29, 2014.

Chelsea Clinton is Quitting Her $600,000/Year NBC “Reporter” Job

Shortly after it was revealed by Politico that NBC had stooped to new lows in favoritist nepotism, having paid Chelsea Clinton an annual salary of $600,000 for “occasional” reporting work, in effect making her one of the highest paid if not the highest paid “reporter” in the world, the former first daughter quickly stunned everyone when, in the aftermath of her mother’s just as stunning commentary on personal wealth and what being “broke” in the New Normal apparently means, she stated rhetorically that “I was curious if I could care about money and I couldn’t.”
So, moments ago, to prove that she really no longer cares about such earthly things as money, since between her hedge fund husband and her parents, she has more than she can possibly spend in one lifetime, AP reported that Chelsea Clinton is finally quitting her job as a reporter at NBC News.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/29/2014.

The Credit Gradient

The United States, and every country, is subject to a monetary authority and legal tender laws. Here in the U. S. we have the Federal Reserve, a central bank that plans money and credit. The Fed thought they had perfected their planning (but of course it cannot be perfected). They thought they had ended the boom and bust cycle, and brought us into a brave new era, their so-called great moderation that ended in 2008. All they really did was manage the banking system to the brink of insolvency.
Let’s try a thought experiment. Suppose the monetary central planner attempts to fix the problem of insolvency by massive injections of liquidity. The central bank buys bonds. It dictates rates near zero on the short end of the yield curve, and promises not to raise rates for years to come. What perverse outcome would we expect?
Arbitrageurs see a green light, telling them that they can safely borrow short to buy long bonds. As the price of a bond goes up, the rate of interest goes down – it’s a rigid mathematical inverse. This is how suppression of short-term rates causes suppression of long-term rates.
This poses a problem for investors. Every investor has a minimum yield he must earn in order to meet his goals, such as retirement. When the yield available in government bonds falls, this gives the investor a strong push to other bonds with higher yields. Some Treasury bond owners sell, and go into AAA corporate bonds. This, of course, pushes up bond prices and pushes down the yield. This pushes some AAA corporate investors into AA bonds. And so on.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 29 August 2014.

A day of reckoning has arrived to retiring Americans: 63 percent of Americans that start working by the age of 25 will be dependent on Social Security, relatives, or charity by the time they hit 65.

The notion of retirement is a fairly new one outside of wealthy circles. For most of civilized history, people worked until they died. Not a glamorous way to go but that is simply the course of human history. Only until recently with the emergence of the middle class was there a general semblance that retirement may be accessible to all. However looking at actual figures reflects a very different picture. It is hard to get a perfect balance sheet as to where older Americans stand today since there are many differing resources floating out in the market. Yet one thing is consistent and that is, older Americans are entering into a major day of reckoning with not enough. Older Americans are woefully unprepared for what lies ahead in retirement. Many are basically at the mercy of Social Security, family, or charity. Not exactly the retirement paradise Wall Street started pitching to the masses starting early in the 1980s. The reason this has gone on for so long is the political system is co-opted by big money. Over this period of time real substantive reforms could have occurred. Instead a generation has passed and many have nothing to show for it even with the stock market at record highs.
Retirement plan number 1: have no savings
Everyday roughly 6,000 Americans hit the age of 65. Too bad 36 percent of Americans have nothing saved for retirement. The typical cost of medical service for someone 65 and older and living 20 more years is $215,000. Given that many have nothing, they are simply one medical event away from the poor house. This is why programs like Social Security and Medicare are protected with such fury by older Americans. In many ways, this is their only form of wealth in retirement. Most do not participate in the Wall Street casino.
Some interesting figures regarding older Americans:

This post was published at MyBudget360 on August 29, 2014.

‘Central Banks Should Give Money Directly To The People’ – Gold Bullish CFR Proposal

Last week, a very radical proposal appeared in the pages of the influential ‘Foreign Affairs’ magazine, the publication arm of the equally influential Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) think-tank based in New York.
An article ‘Print Less but Transfer More – Why Central Banks Should Give Money Directly to the People’, that has been picked up widely in the media argues that given that monetary stimulus measures such as quantitative easing and near zero central bank interest rates have failed to boost economic growth, a new radical monetary approach is needed. That approach is to print currency and give the cash directly to consumers and households as required so as to remedy insufficient consumer spending and in order to prevent recessions.
The article is authored by Mark Blyth and Eric Lonergan. Blyth, originally from Scotland, is an economist at Brown University in Rhode Island. Lonergan, originally from Ireland, is a fund manager of global macro strategies at M&G Investments in London.
Although ‘Foreign Affairs’ publishes various sides of important debates, policy articles in ‘Foreign Affairs’ have tended to influence US economic and political policy over the years, so the ‘cash transfer proposal’ is worth watching.

This post was published at Gold Core on 29 August 2014.

The wages-fuel-demand fallacy

In recent months talking heads, disappointed with the lack of economic recovery, have turned their attention to wages. If only wages could grow, they say, there would be more demand for goods and services: without wage growth, economies will continue to stagnate.
It amounts to a non-specific call to stimulate aggregate demand by continuing with or even accelerating the expansion of money supply. The thinking is the same as that behind Bernanke’s monetary distribution by helicopter. Unfortunately for these wishful-thinkers the disciplines of the markets cannot be bypassed. If you give everyone more money without a balancing increase in the supply of goods, there is no surer way of stimulating price inflation, collapsing a currency’s purchasing power and losing all control of interest rates.
The underlying error is to fail to understand that economising individuals make things in order to be able to buy things. That is the order of events, earn it first and spend it second. No amount of monetary shenanigans can change this basic fact. Instead, expanding the quantity of money will always end up devaluing the wealth and earning-power of ordinary people, the same people that are being encouraged to spend, and destroying genuine economic activity in the process.

This post was published at GoldMoney on 29 August 2014.

The Myth of the Unchanging Value of Gold

According to mainstream economics textbooks, one of the primary functions of money is to measure the value of goods and services exchanged on the market. A typical statement of this view is given by Frederic Mishkin in his textbook on money and banking. ‘[M]oney … is used to measure value in the economy,’ he claims. ‘We measure the value of goods and services in terms of money, just as we measure weight in terms of pounds and distance in terms of miles.’
When money is conceived as a measure of value, the policy implication is that one of the primary objectives of the central bank should be to maintain a stable price level. This supposedly will remove inflationary noise from the economy and ensure that any changes in money prices that do occur tend to reflect a change in the relative values of goods and services to consumers. Thus, for mainstream economists, stabilizing a price index based on a basket of arbitrarily selected and weighted consumer goods, e.g., the CPI, the core CPI, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (CPE), etc., is a prerequisite for rendering money a more or less fixed yardstick for measuring value.
This idea – that a series of acts involving interpersonal exchange of certain sums of money for quantities of various goods by diverse agents over a given period of time somehow yields a measure of value – is another ancient fallacy that can be traced back to John Law. Law repeatedly referred to money as ‘the measure by which goods are valued.’ This fallacy has been refuted elsewhere and rests on the assumption that the act of measurement involves the comparison of one thing to another thing that has an objective existence, and whose relevant physical dimensions and causal relationships with other physical phenomena are absolutely fixed and invariant to the passage of time, like a yardstick or a column of mercury.

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on Friday, August 29, 2014.

German Finance Minister Tells EU Leaders: Free Money Party’s Over

Has Germany had enough? Hot on the heels of Mario Draghi’s ‘demands’ that EU leaders undertake “structural reforms” to boost competitiveness and overcome the legacy of Europe’s debt crisis, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble unleashed perhaps the most worrisome statement tonight for all the free-money-party-goers – the music is about to stop. In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Schaeuble blasted “Europe needs to find ways to foster growth,” adding that “the ECB has reached the limit in helping the Euro Area.” In a clear shot across the bow of his ‘core’ cohort, Schaeuble said he “understood” Hollande’s demands but shot back that “monetary policy can only buy time.”
As WSJ notes, the French are seeking aid…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/28/2014.

Argentina Proclaims Peso Devaluation “Obviously Won’t Happen” – Just Like It “Vowed” In 2013

May 2013, President Kirchner: “As long as I’m president, those who want to make money through devaluations, which other people have to pay for, will have to keep waiting for another government,”
Jan 2014: Argentina Devaluation Sends Currency Tumbling Most in 12 Years
Aug 2014: Argentina’s Cabinet Chief Jorge Capitanich said today a devaluation of the peso, “obviously won’t happen.”
So what’s next?

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 08/28/2014.