• Tag Archives Australia
  • Key Events In The Coming Week: Jobs, Brexit, PMI, IP And More

    The first full week of December is shaping up as rather busy, with such Tier 1 data in the US as the payrolls report, durable goods orders and trade balance. We also get UK PMI data and GDP, retail sales across the Euro Area, as well as central bank meetings including Australia RBA and BoC monetary policy meeting.
    Key events per RanSquawk
    Monday: UK PM May To Meet EU’s Juncker & Barnier Tuesday: UK Services PMI (Nov), RBA MonPol Decision Wednesday: BoC MonPol Decision, Australian GDP (Q3) Friday: US Payrolls Report (Nov), Japan GDP (Q3, 2nd) The week’s main event takes place on Friday with the release of November’s US labour market report. Consensus looks for the headline nonfarm payrolls to show an addition of 188K jobs, slowing from October’s 261K. Average hourly earnings growth is expected to slow to 0.3% M/M from 0.5%, while the unemployment rate and average hours worked are expected to hold steady at 4.1% and 34.4 respectively. Hurricane induced volatility should be absent from the November release, and consensus points to a headline print much more in-keeping with trend rate.
    Other key data releases next week include the remaining October services and composite PMIs on Tuesday in Asia, Europe and the US, ISM non-manufacturing in the US on Tuesday, ADP employment report on Wednesday and China trade data on Friday.
    Focus will also fall on Wednesday’s Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision, with the majority looking for the Bank to leave its key interest rate unchanged at 1.00%, although 3 of the 31 surveyed by Reuters are looking for a 25bps hike. Following the BoC’s back-to-back rate hikes in Q3, interest rate markets were pricing in a 40-50% chance of a hike at the upcoming decision, that has now pared back to 25% as the BoC has sounded more cautious in recent addresses, highlighting that it expected the economy to slow (GDP growth moderated to 1.7% in Q3 on a Q/Q annualised basis, from 4.3% in Q2) while stressing that it remains data dependant. RBC highlights that ‘the BoC has been focused on the consumer’s reaction to the earlier hikes and is content to wait-and-see for the moment. Wage growth – another key metric for the central bank – has improved in recent employment reports (reaching the highest level of growth since April 2016 in November’s report). Despite its softer tone, the BoC continues to stress that ‘less monetary stimulus will likely be required over time’ and as a result the statement will be scoured for any changes in tone. At the time of writing, markets are pricing a 57.2% chance of a 25bps hike in January, with such a move 91.0% priced by the end of March.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 4, 2017.


  • Loonie Soars After Canadian Data Crushes Expectations, 14 Sigma Jobs Beat

    The loonie just exploded by 100 pips following a barrage of Canadian eco data, including GDP and employment, both of which crushed expectations.
    September GDP rose 0.2% ,/ vs exp. 0.1%, and up from -0.1% in August, which means Q3 annualized GDP will be 1.7%.
    But it was the jobs data which was particularly noteworthy; in fact it was borderline “Australian” in how ridiculous the print was: the employment rate in November was 79.5k, up from 35.3k last month, and 8 times higher than the consensus estimate. Not only was this the highest print since 2012, it was also a 14 sigma beat!

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 1, 2017.


  • Australian Banks – First The Housing Bubble Bursts, Now A Public Inquiry

    We keep returning to the subject of Australia and the growing signs that its bubble economy is bursting. Earlier this month, we discussed how the world’s longest-running bull market – 55 years – in Australian house prices appears to have come to an end. We followed this up with ‘Why Australia’s Economy Is A House Of Cards’ in which Matt Barrie and Craig Tindale described how Australia’s three decades long economic expansion had mostly been the result of ‘dumb luck’.
    As a whole, the Australian economy has grown through a property bubble inflating on top of a mining bubble, built on top of a commodities bubble, driven by a China bubble.
    Last week, in “The Party’s Over For Australia’s $5.6 Trillion Housing Market Frenzy”, we highlighted some scary metrics for Australia’s housing bubble – notably how the value of Australian housing is more than four times gross domestic product – higher than other nations with housing bubbles, e.g. New Zealand, the UK and Canada. Two days ago, we noted the number of Australians optimistic about the year ahead had plunged to a record low.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 30, 2017.


  • Breslow: “The Answer To This Question Will Drive Just About Everything”

    Having passed the first hurdle this morning (PCE did not drop further), The Fed’s December hike is now locked and loaded, but, as former fund manager Richard Breslow notes, at the end of the day, the real elephant in the room is if, when and how fast the big central banks shift toward policy normalization. Everything else is derivative. Get this one right and quibbling over some sector rotation or the relative prospects of the Australian versus New Zealand dollars pale in comparison.
    The answer to this question will drive just about every other market.
    Via Bloomberg,
    It’s an interesting issue to contemplate as we wind down a year when sovereign yields, with the exception of China, have been moribund, at best.
    All eyes have correctly been on the yield curves but it could very well be that the focus needs to change.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 30, 2017.


  • As Australia’s Housing Bubble Bursts, Optimism For The Year Ahead Crashes To Record Low

    Zero Hedge readers might have noted our increasingly bearish tone on all things Australian – economic that is, since the cricket team just whipped the English in the first test match in Brisbane. The focal point of our concern is the housing market and, earlier this month, we discussed how the world’s longest-running bull market – 55 years – in Australian house prices appears to have come to an end. We followed this up with ‘Why Australia’s Economy Is A House Of Cards’ in which Matt Barrie and Craig Tindale described how Australia’s three decades long economic expansion had mostly been the result of ‘dumb luck’.
    As a whole, the Australian economy has grown through a property bubble inflating on top of a mining bubble, built on top of a commodities bubble, driven by a China bubble.
    Last week, in “The Party’s Over For Australia’s $5.6 Trillion Housing Market Frenzy”, we highlighted some scary metrics for Australia’s housing bubble cited by Bloomberg. In particular, we showed how the value of Australian housing is more than four times gross domestic product. This is higher than other western nations, like New Zealand, Canada and the UK, which are experiencing their own housing bubbles. The ratio of house values to GDP in the US seems positively tame in comparison.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 28, 2017.


  • The Party’s Over For Australia’s $5.6 Trillion Housing Frenzy

    Early this month, we discussed whether the world’s longest running bull market – 55 years – in Australian house prices had come to an end. This was UBS’s view following the October 2017 monthly report on Australian house prices from CoreLogic suggested that measures to tighten credit standards and dissuade overseas buyers (especially Chinese in Sydney and Melbourne) have finally begun to bite. As CoreLogic’s summary table shows, Sydney prices fell in October, for the second month running, and poised to lead national prices lower.
    ***
    We followed up that discussion with ‘Why Australia’s Economy Is A House Of Cards’ in which Matt Barrie and Craig Tindale described how Australia’s three decades long economic expansion had mostly been the result of ‘dumb luck’.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 24, 2017.


  • Mueller Subpoena Spooks Dollar, Sends European Stocks, US Futures Lower

    Yesterday’s torrid, broad-based rally looked set to continue overnight until early in the Japanese session, when the USD tumbled and dragged down with it the USDJPY, Nikkei, and US futures following a WSJ report that Robert Mueller had issued a subpoena to more than a dozen top Trump administration officials in mid October.
    And as traders sit at their desks on Friday, U. S. index futures point to a lower open as European stocks fall, struggling to follow Asian equities higher as the euro strengthened at the end of a tumultuous week. Chinese stocks dropped while Indian shares and the rupee gain on Moody’s upgrade. The MSCI world equity index was up 0.1% on the day, but was heading for a 0.1% fall on the week. The dollar declined against most major peers, while Treasury yields dropped and oil rose.
    Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index fluctuated before turning lower as much as 0.3% in brisk volumes, dropping towards the 200-DMA, although about 1% above Wednesday’s intraday low; weakness was observed in retail, mining, utilities sectors. In the past two weeks, the basic resources sector index is down 6%, oil & gas down 5.8%, autos down 4.9%, retail down 3.4%; while real estate is the only sector in green, up 0.1%. The Stoxx 600 is on track to record a weekly loss of 1.3%, adding to last week’s sell-off amid sharp rebound in euro, global equity pullback. The Euro climbed for the first time in three days after ECB President Mario Draghi said he was optimistic for wage growth in the region, although stressed the need for patience, speaking in Frankfurt. European bonds were mixed. The pound pared some of its earlier gains after comments from Brexit Secretary David Davis signaling a continued stand-off in negotiations with the European Union.
    In Asia, the Nikkei 225 took its time to catch up to the WSJ report that US Special Counsel Mueller has issued a Subpoena for Russia-related documents from Trump campaign officials, although reports pointing to North Korea conducting ‘aggressive’ work on the construction of a ballistic missile submarine helped the selloff. The Japanese blue-chip index rose as much as 1.8% in early dealing, but the broad-based dollar retreat led to the index unwinding the bulk of its gains; the index finished the session up 0.2% as the yen jumped to the strongest in four-weeks. Australia’s ASX 200 added 0.2% with IT, healthcare and telecoms leading the way, as utilities lagged. Mainland Chinese stocks fell, with the Shanghai Comp down circa 0.5% as the PBoC’s reversel in liquidity injections (overnight net drain of 10bn yuan) did little to boost risk appetite, as Kweichou Moutai (viewed as a bellwether among Chinese blue chips) fell sharply. This left the index facing its biggest weekly loss in 3 months, while the Hang Seng rallied with IT leading the way higher. Indian stocks and the currency advanced after Moody’s Investors Service raised the nation’s credit rating.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 17, 2017.


  • Why Australia’s Economy Is A House Of Cards

    Co-authored with Craig Tindale.
    I recently watched the federal treasurer, Scott Morrison, proudly proclaim that Australia was in ‘surprisingly good shape’. Indeed, Australia has just snatched the world record from the Netherlands, achieving its 104th quarter of growth without a recession, making this achievement the longest streak for any OECD country since 1970.
    ***
    I was pretty shocked at the complacency, because after twenty six years of economic expansion, the country has very little to show for it.
    For over a quarter of a century our economy mostly grew because of dumb luck. Luck because our country is relatively large and abundant in natural resources, resources that have been in huge demand from a close neighbour.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 15, 2017.


  • Two-Thirds Of The Top Primary Silver Miners Suffered Production Declines In 2017

    It has been a rough year for many primary silver miners as two-thirds have suffered declines in production. Also, many high ranking silver producing countries are also experiencing a pronounced reduction in their domestic silver mine supply. According to the data put out by World Metal Statistics, Chile’s silver production is down 20% in the first eight months of the year, while Australia is down 19%, Mexico declined 2% and Peru by 1%.
    The Silver Institute will be releasing their 2017 Silver Interim Report shortly which will provide an update on current silver production and forecasts for the remainder of the year. However, I believe global silver production will take a hit this year due to several factors including, falling ore grades, mine closures, and strikes at various projects.
    For example, Tahoe Resources was forced to shut down its Guatemalan Escobal Mine in July due to a temporary suspension of its operating license by the country’s Supreme Court. However, even after the Guatemalan Supreme Court reinstated Tahoe Resources Escobal Mine’s license in early September, an ongoing road blockade has hampered the ability of the project to continue mining. Regardless, Tahoe’s silver production declined a stunning 6.7 million oz Q1-Q3 2017 versus the same period last year.

    This post was published at SRSrocco Report on NOVEMBER 13, 2017.


  • London House Prices “Battered From All Sides”

    This week we discussed Algebris Investments’ ranking of the world’s largest financial bubbles. London property ranked second on the list, behind Australian property (see here). There is growing evidence the former is bursting. In its October 2017 survey, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) reported the largest proportion of respondents seeing a drop in London house prices versus the previous month since 2009. The net balance at nearly two thirds (-63%) in the capital contrasted sharply with a national average which was marginally in positive territory (+1%). The RICS data corroborated yesterday’s Bank of England’s regional agents’ report which highlighted ‘signs of excess supply in London and the South, but some excess demand in most other parts of the United Kingdom’.
    ***
    According to Bloomberg.
    London’s housing market is being battered from all sides. A survey by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed a price gauge at its lowest level for seven years, and far below the national average.
    Real-estate agents are more pessimistic about the market in the capital than any other region, with contributors flagging a potent mix of concerns, including Brexit uncertainty, the Bank of England’s interest-rate hike and the government’s budget later this month.
    Speaking to the FT, RICS’ chief economist gave his take on what’s causing the weakness, surprisingly only referring to Brexit indirectly.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 10, 2017.


  • ALERT: WORLDWIDE Netflix Email Scam Is Targeting Millions Of Subscribers

    A new email scam is making the rounds and this one appears to be targeting Netflix’s millions of subscribers. The email threatens to shut down the users account if they fail to update their billing information.
    According to ABC News, the email asks its readers to click the link, leading them to a fake Netflix homepage and prompting them to enter their private information. According to MailGuard, an Australian cybersecurity firm, that includes billing information, so the scammers can access debit or credit card numbers.
    The well-designed, individualized, and fake email convinces customers to update their account information to avoid suspension. This results in stolen personal and credit card information.
    Action Fraud has enclosed an image of the scam email so it can be easily spotted.
    A well designed Netflix email targets some of the 110 million Netflix subscribers worldwide! Check out the steps: – Action Fraud (@actionfrauduk) November 6, 2017
    ‘Unfortunately, scams are common on the internet and target popular brands such as Netflix and other companies with large customer bases to lure users into giving out personal information,’ Netflix said in a statement to ABC News. Netflix says that the company will never ask for personal information in an email and advises its subscribers to be careful of any phishing emails that lead to false websites, according to its security page.

    This post was published at shtfplan on November 8th, 2017.


  • World’s Largest Gold Producer China Sees Production Fall 10%

    – Gold mining production in China fell by 9.8% in H1 2017
    – Decreasing mine supply in world’s largest gold producer and across the globe
    – GFMS World Gold Survey predicts mine production to contract year-on-year
    – Peak gold production being seen in Australia, world’s no 2 producer
    – Peak gold production globally while global gold demand remains robust
    Editor Mark O’Byrne
    ***
    Gold production in the world’s largest gold producer and buyer fell by nearly 10% in the first half of 2017 in what may be another indication of peak gold.
    Chinese mine production registered the largest drop globally to total 207 tonnes in the first half of 2017, down 23 tonnes, or 9.8% year-on-year. In the same period last year the country produced 230 metric tons.

    This post was published at Gold Core on November 7, 2017.


  • Global Stock Meltup Sends Nikkei To 25 Year High

    The global risk levitation continues, sending Asian stocks just shy of records, to the highest since November 2007 and Japan’s Nikkei topped 22,750 – a level last seen in 1992 – while European shares and US equity futures were mixed, and the dollar rose across the board, gains accelerating through the European session with EURUSD sumping below 1.16 shortly German industrial output shrank more than forecast, eventually dropping to the lowest point since last month’s ECB meeting. Meanwhile soaring iron-ore prices couldn’t provide relief to the Aussie as the RBA held rates unchanged as expected; Oil traded unchanged at 2.5 year highs, while TSY 10-year yields rose while the German curve bear steepened, both driven by selling from global investors.
    The Stoxx Europe 600 Index edged lower, erasing an early advance, despite earlier euphoria in stocks from Japan to Sydney, which reached fresh milestones. Disappointing reports from BMW AG and Associated British Foods Plc weighed on the European index as third-quarter earnings season continued. Earlier, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose as much as 0.3%, just shy of a 2-year high it reached last week. Maersk was among the worst performers after posting a quarterly loss, saying a cyberattack in the summer cost more than previously predicted. Spain’s IBEX 35 gains crossed back above its 200 day moving average. European bank stocks trimmed gains after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the problem of non-performing loans isn’t solved yet, though supervision has improved the resilience of the banking sector in the euro region. Draghi was speaking at a conference in Frankfurt.
    Over in Asia, equities rose to a decade high, with energy and commodities stocks leading gains as oil and metals prices rallied. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.8 percent to 171.40, advancing for a second consecutive session. Oil-related shares advanced the most among sub-indexes as Inpex Corp. rose 3.7 percent and China Oilfield Services Ltd. added 4.6 percent. The MSCI EM Asia Index climbed to a fresh record. The Asia-wide gauge has risen 27 percent this year, outperforming a measure of global markets. The regional index is trading at the highest level since November 2007. Hong Kong’s equity benchmark was at its highest since December 2007 as Tencent Holdings Ltd. advanced for an eighth session. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index closed at its highest level since the financial crisis.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 7, 2017.


  • Australian Gold Exports Surge Boosted By German Demand

    Gold exports from Australia surged from August to September, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
    Non-monetary gold exports rose 17% in the period, an increase of $217 million in seasonally adjusted terms.
    Germans are buying a lot of gold from Australia through the Perth Mint, according to the Australian Financial Review.
    Germans purchased gold and silver coins worth almost $487 million from the mint last financial year and the trade has boomed on the back of events such as Brexit and the global financial crisis. The 2016-17 sales represent more than 158 tons of gold and silver turned into more than 4 million commemorative and special edition coins by the mint.’

    This post was published at Schiffgold on NOVEMBER 6, 2017.


  • Dollar Rebounds, Futures Rise Ahead Of Surge In Payrolls

    One day after the dollar slumped sharply on initial disappointment with the GOP tax plan, the greenback has rebounded ahead of a nonfarm payrolls report that is expected to show the US economy gained over 300,000 jobs in the post-hurricane rebound, and as investors reassessed the latest news on U. S. tax-cut plans. Stocks in Europe and Asia advanced, US equity futures were as usual in the green, while oil headed for an eight-month high on signs OPEC will agree to extend supply cuts.
    In an otherwise quiet session, the biggest overnight news was President Nicolas Maduro announcing Venezuela will seek to restructure its global debt after the state oil company makes one more payment. While the risk of contagion is low, the emerging-market index of currencies declined for the first time this week. In early trading, the PDVSA dollar bonds maturing 2027 plunged at the start of trading, slumping 10 cents on the dollar to 20 cents in early London trading. As a result, EMFX weakened across the board with some analysts noting the Venezuela debt restructuring as a driver, though most weakness occurred after Turkey’s inflation report.
    In global macro, markets are in their usual pre-NFP lull, with most G-10 currencies staying within yesterday’s ranges. The weakest quarter for Australian retail sales in seven years sent the Aussie lower and bonds climbing. The Aussie dollar dropped as much as 0.5 percent back below 77 U. S. cents and bond yields extended declines as traders pushed back bets on the timing for an interest-rate increase. The Bloomberg Dollar Index was steady in Asia, amid modest moves in most G-10 currencies, before edging higher with the start of the London session as fast-money names added dollar longs before U. S. jobs report. Treasury futures were stuck in tight ranges through Asian hours, on very muted volumes, just 37% of recent averages, with cash markets closed for a Japan holiday; as Bloomberg reports, TSYs came under pressure in London, widening vs Germany.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 3, 2017.


  • Apple Launches The iPhone X, And Lines Around The Block Return

    The moment Apple geeks were waiting for arrived this morning with the launch of the iPhone X aroudn the world. The new phone went on sale and was greeted by huge crowds outside Apple stores in some Australian and Asian cities. What a difference a month makes when we reported in “This Is Embarrassing”: 2 People Show Up For iPhone 8 Launch in China.
    Fortunately for Apple, which yesterday smashed expectations and reported strong guidance, the iPhone magic appears to be back as the Wall Street Journal reports:
    Long lines outside of Apple Inc. AAPL 0.73% stores around the world showed strong initial demand for the new iPhone X, but analysts said the real test would be the company’s ability to sustain that level of interest over the coming months as it works through supply bottlenecks. Sales of the iPhone X began Friday, and hundreds of customers lined up in Australia and Singapore, aiming to be among the first in the world to get their hands on the most expensive iPhone ever, with a starting price of $999 and features including an edge-to-edge display and a facial-recognition system. It wasn’t clear how many units Apple would have available for first-day sales. At an Apple store in central Sydney, lines snaked around the corner midmorning local time, despite the store opening at 8 a.m., an hour earlier than usual, to cope with expected demand.
    Half way around the world, CNET reports on the Sydney launch.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 3, 2017.


  • World’s Longest Bull Market (55 Years) In Australian House Prices Is Over, According To UBS

    This morning, CoreLogic released its monthly report on Australian house prices – the world’s longest running bull market. Finally, measures to tighten credit standards and dissuade overseas buyers (especially Chinese in Sydney and Melbourne) are beginning to bite and price rises ground to a halt last month. From the report…
    Since moving through a peak rate of growth in November 2016, capital gains across Australia’s housing market have been losing momentum, with national dwelling values unchanged over the month of October. For October, conditions were flat across both the combined capital cities and the combined regional areas of Australia, however over the past twelve months growth in the capital cities (+7.0%) has outperformed the regional areas (+4.9%).
    CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said, ‘The slowdown in the pace of capital gains can be attributed primarily to tighter credit policies which have fundamentally changed the landscape for borrowers.’
    ‘Lenders have tightened their servicing tests and reduced their appetite for riskier loans, including those on higher loan to valuation ratios or higher loan to income multiples. Additionally, interest only borrowers and investors are facing premiums on their mortgage rates which are likely to act as a disincentive, especially for investors who are generally facing low rental yields on investment properties.
    ‘In fact, the peak rate of growth in dwelling values lines up closely with the peak growth rate for investment lending in late 2016. We saw the housing market respond in a similar fashion through 2015, and the first half of 2016 as investors faced tighter credit conditions following the announcement from APRA that lenders couldn’t surpass a 10% speed limit on investment lending.’

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 2, 2017.


  • Market Talk- October 31, 2017

    A slow but steady day in Asian equity markets, but happy in the knowledge that the BOJ left almost everything unchanged. The Nikkei closed almost unchanged but has set an impressive two month rally. At above 22k the index closes at a 21 year high, but after the weak opening it took all day to recover unchanged. The Yen was a little weaker (0.5%) as it challenges the 114 handle again. The Australian ASX did open better but drifted throughout the day eventually closing on its low. However, irrespective of todays price action it has been a constructive month for the All Ords with a gain of around 3%. Shanghai managed to shake-off the PMI miss (51.6 against market expectations of 52), with Services also declining. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng we closed down -0.3% with bank stocks weighing on the market.
    Although we finished the month on a positive note, volumes were low. This usually is the case when a large index is closed and with Germany on a national holiday the absence of the DAX was noticeable. Spain’s IBEX helped sentiment though with a daily gain of +0.7%. The market is valuing ‘no news’ as positive these days, so with the demand for yield ever present any quiet day is good for low grade paper. This is present when comparing global credits to the states where it is not uncommon to find BBB credits trading even yield with US treasuries. The CAC managed a small +0.2% gain whilst the largest bank (BNP Paribas) recorded as the worst performing European bank stock today (-2.7%). UK’s FTSE managed a small positive for the day but an +0.5% in the currency helped international investors as traders continue to price in a BOE move on Thursday. Talk is that BREXIT discussions may be progressing better than many had expected but we have yet to hear details.

    This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Oct 31, 2017.


  • As Lithium Booms, Some Analysts Sound Note Of Caution

    In ‘Mad Scramble for Lithium Mines From Congo to Cornwall’, Bloomberg puts some colour on current conditions in the red hot sub-sector.
    For evidence of just how hot battery ingredient lithium is right now, look no further than Australia’s AVZ Minerals Ltd. A penny stock until a few months ago, the mining hopeful has surged about 1,300 percent this year. The proposition: recasting a remote, century-old tin mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo as a supplier of lithium needed to power electric cars. While its rise has been dramatic, AVZ isn’t alone in the rush to position for a rechargeable-battery boom.
    In the U. K., a company (Cornish Lithium) founded by former investment banker Jeremy Wrathall Cornish Lithium is planning to tap thermal springs in Cornwall, a region more famous for its beach coves.
    Cornish beach cove…but have you tried driving to one from London (takes hours).

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 26, 2017.


  • Australian Gold Mine Production on Track to Fall By Half Over Next 25 Years

    Australian gold output will peak in just four years and then begin a steep decline, according to a report issued by a Melbourne-based industry adviser.
    According to MinEx Consulting analysis reported by Bloomberg Business, Australian mine output will max out in 2021 and then fall by half into the mid-2050s, as aging mines close down.
    A steep decline in Australia’s gold production will have a significant impact on world supply and lends credence to remarks made by the chairman of the World Gold Council during an interview at the Denver Gold Forum last month.
    Randall Oliphant said he thinks the world may have reached peak gold. This means the amount of gold mined out of the earth will begin to shrink every year, rather than increase, as it has done pretty consistently since the 1970s. Oliphant said there are signs we’ve reached that point. In the near-term, he expects production to likely plateau at best, before slowly declining as demand rises, especially given global political risks and robust purchases by consumers in India and China

    This post was published at Schiffgold on OCTOBER 16, 2017.