• Tag Archives Australia
  • Australian Gold Mine Production on Track to Fall By Half Over Next 25 Years

    Australian gold output will peak in just four years and then begin a steep decline, according to a report issued by a Melbourne-based industry adviser.
    According to MinEx Consulting analysis reported by Bloomberg Business, Australian mine output will max out in 2021 and then fall by half into the mid-2050s, as aging mines close down.
    A steep decline in Australia’s gold production will have a significant impact on world supply and lends credence to remarks made by the chairman of the World Gold Council during an interview at the Denver Gold Forum last month.
    Randall Oliphant said he thinks the world may have reached peak gold. This means the amount of gold mined out of the earth will begin to shrink every year, rather than increase, as it has done pretty consistently since the 1970s. Oliphant said there are signs we’ve reached that point. In the near-term, he expects production to likely plateau at best, before slowly declining as demand rises, especially given global political risks and robust purchases by consumers in India and China

    This post was published at Schiffgold on OCTOBER 16, 2017.


  • 13/10/17: Debt Glut and Building Dublin

    Just back from Ireland, a fast, work-filled trip, with some amazing meetings and discussions, largely unrelated to what is in the ‘official’ newsflow. Some blogposts and articles ahead to be shared.
    One thing that jumps out is the continued frenzy in building activity in Dublin, predominantly (exclusively) in the commercial space (offices). Not much finished. Lots being built. For now, Irish builders (mostly strange new players backed by vultures and private equity) are still in the stage where buildings shells are being erected. The cheap stage of construction. Very few are entering the fit-out stages – the costly, skills-intensive works stage. And according to several sector specialists I spoke to, not many fit-out crews are in the market, as skilled builders have not been returning to the island, yet, from their exiles to the U. S., Canada, Australia, UAE, and further afield.
    Which should make for a very interesting period ahead: with so many construction sites nearing the fit-out stages, building costs will sky rocket, just as supply glut of new offices will start hitting the letting markets. In the mean time, many multinationals – aka the only clients worth signing – have already signed leases and/or bought own buildings on the cheap. Google owns its own real estate (hello BEPS tax reforms that stress tangible activity over imaginary revenue shifting); Twitter has a refurbished home; Facebook is quite committed to a lease (although it too might take a jump into buying); and so on. Tax inversion have slowed down and Trump Administration just re-committed to Obama-era restrictions on these, while Trump tax plan aims to take a massive chunk out of this pie away from Ireland. So demand… demand is nowhere to be seen.

    This post was published at True Economics on Friday, October 13, 2017.


  • I Know What the Economy Did Last Summer Part 2: The Real Estate Rollover

    In fact, I knew what the economy did last summer before summer even began. Since the beginning of the year, I have been writing that it appeared housing was reaching a new bubblicious peak and that the real estate market was getting ready to roll over. Just before the start of the summer, I confirmed that prediction by saying that it looked like that process had begun. I anticipate it will be a slow turnover at first, just as it was in 2007, which did not reach free fall until late in 2008. Likewise, I anticipate the present decline will not reach free fall until 2018.
    While housing played out about as I expected this summer (see below), the more obvious collapse right now is developing in metropolitan commercial real estate, particularly in retail space due to the retail apocalypse. Even longtime commercial real-estate mogul Sam Zell warned last week that he would not consider investing any capital in retail real estate. In Zell’s words, the real estate landscape looks ‘like a falling knife.’
    ‘An area that’s in this much disarray, with so many weak players, is not an area where I would want to deploy capital at this time. And I’m generally a contrarian, and I generally rub my hands together at the opportunity for serious dislodgment, but I think what we’re dealing with here is very significant… It’s going to be very hard to take that shopping center land and redevelop it with all of these competing people having rights.’ (Newsmax)
    Zell sees retail’s mortal throes as a violent struggle that is going to take a few years to play out.
    A second problem the commercial real estate bubble faces (and Zell describes it as a bubble in that there is way too much space dedicated to retail in the US compared to other nations), is that Chinese investors are being forced to exit, and they have been a major support to that space. In Manhattan, for example, Chinese investors have made half of all commercial real estate purchases. The Chinese government decided this summer to squeeze that dry in order to stop the flow of yuan out of the country. In London and Australia, Chinese buyers accounted for about a quarter of commercial real-estate purchases. The Chinese government is pressuring Chinese banks to stay away from these deals.

    This post was published at GoldSeek on Sunday, 8 October 2017.


  • After Losing Millions To Nigerian Scammers, A Bankrupt Boris Becker Is Liquidating His Assets

    It has already been one of the most remarkable rags to riches and then back to rags – with a bankruptcy on top – stories ever, and it is getting more bizarre by the day.
    Three months ago, we reported that while Boris Becker was a legend on the tennis court, when it comes to investing, he appears to have shared an advisor with Johnny Depp.
    Becker shot to fame when he won Wimbledon aged just 17 and went on to win a total of six Grand Slam titles, including a further two Wimbledon titles, two Australian Opens, and a US Open crown, before retiring in 1999 aged just 31 and moving into business. Alas, here the fairy tale ends, and according to claims in the German media, Boris Becker may have lost a substantial portion of his roughly 50 million fortune in part because of questionable investments in the Nigerian oil industry.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 7, 2017.


  • Gold Sales at Australia’s Perth Mint Doubled Last Month

    Gold sales at Australia’s Perth Mint doubled in September. Meanwhile, sales of silversurged 78%.
    Sales of gold coins and minted bars jumped to 46,415 ounces in September, up from 23,130 ounces a month ago. Silver sales during the month came in at 697,849 ounces, compared with 392,091 ounces in August.
    Australia ranks as the second largest gold producer in the world behind China. The Perth Mint refines more than 90% of the country’s gold.
    Officials at the mint said investors seized upon the opportunity offered by the drop in the price of gold in late September to buy. The price fell after a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting and hints that the US central bank would raise interest rates again in December. The unveiling of the Trump tax plan also seemed to strengthen the dollar, placing price pressure on gold and silver.
    Late last month, ‘commodities king’ Dennis Gartman said investors should take this opportunity to buy gold, predicting the bull run is not over.

    This post was published at Schiffgold on OCTOBER 3, 2017.


  • Thunder Down Under: Some Australian Junior Gold Miners Take Off

    Gold mining stocks have been treading water for what seems like forever. But in a remote part of Australia, a potentially big find by a tiny exploration company is generating some welcome excitement.
    The story in a nutshell: Back in the 1990s, Newmont Mining geologist Quinton Hennigh came up with a novel theory about the origin of South Africa’s immense Witwatersrand Basin gold deposit. He left Newmont and spent the next couple of decades searching for similar geologic structures that he hoped would contain similar amounts of metal.
    He eventually found one in a remote part of western Australia, and formed Novo Resourcesto explore it.
    A few more quiet years ensued. But in mid-2017 the floodgates opened as reports of serious deposits – including large numbers of gold nuggets right near the surface, documented on YouTube – caught the imagination of some heavy hitters in the gold world, turning Novo’s stock into a ten-bagger and taking several other explorers with nearby claims along for the ride.

    This post was published at DollarCollapse on OCTOBER 2, 2017.


  • Market Talk- September 29th, 2017

    The Nikkei lost just a smidgeon today but still holds levels way up on the year. The YTD number is just over 6% because much of the rally was in Q4 2016, so on a 1yr basis is up almost 22%. The Yen continues comfortably mid 112’s but with more weakness expected. Elections will be interesting next month especially with the new party, led by Tokyo governor Yuiko Koike, only just formed last Wednesday. Todays Japanese data saw mixed results with Consumer Prices, Retails Sales and Industrial Production all showing opposite trends. Almost every other Asian exchange closed higher with HSI, Shanghai, and Australian ASX all closing around +0.3% with the KOPSI closing a strong near 1% gain for the day. Financials and exporters have been the leaders in this rally but probably to the detriment of the currencies. National holidays in China next week.

    This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Sep 29, 2017.


  • Market Talk- September 22nd, 2017

    The Australian ASX was probably over-sold yesterday and therefore stood as the only core that performed today. Closing up +0.5% was a healthy recovery after yesterdays 1% decline. China’s downgrade put a small dent in confidence for the cash markets which took the Hang Seng down
    -0.8% while the Shanghai closed with just small loss. Geopolitical risks remain present after US President Donal Trump signed to expand measurers to target North Korean trade. the Nikkei although closed lower (-0.25%) was off of its earlier lows as news of the speech-plays increased between the two nations. Having seen gold break the psychological $1300 mark yesterday, today we traded comfortably below that level all day. The Yen has dipped back below 112 again as talks of possible missile launches were circulating ahead of the weekend.

    This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Sep 22, 2017.


  • Market Talk- September 15th, 2017

    North Korea spooked markets yet again by launching a missile that reported flew over Japan, which came a day after North Korea claimed it would sink Japan. The events were short-livid however and after a brief flight to safety in gold, treasuries and the Yen markets quickly corrected back. The JPY traded into the low 110’s but by US trading had drifted into the 111’s. Gold did have a bid in Asian trading but by the late US session was testing $1320. The recovery had already taken place by the time Asia closed with the Nikkei closing in positive territory (+0.55%) with exporters and financials setting the pace. The Australian ASX closed down -0.8% led by industrials and miners. SENSEX and Hang Seng were both little changed but we saw a positive return for the core Shanghai index closing up +0.55% as the Yuan drifted again.

    This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Sep 15, 2017.


  • Global Warming & Storms

    While some of the news coverage was interjecting global warming as the cause of the storm, in fact it tends to work in the opposite direction. This has been a sharply declining period of temperature. I wrote about how this was the year without an Arctic Summer. This has been the coldest summer in Europe and even in the States on the East Coast during August to early September. I went to visit family in August and had to buy a coat in New Jersey. In Australia there has been the coldest night on record in New South Wales. The warm water colliding with cooler air tends to make for bigger storms.
    One of the major news stations was attributing Miami sinking into the water to Global Warming claiming this was PROOF of rising sea levels. Pictured here is Wildwood New Jersey which was famous in the 60s with Bobby Rydell’s song. I use to go there as a kid. The piers were once upon a time actually in the water. You could go on a pier and fish.

    This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Sep 13, 2017.


  • Terrorists In Germany’s Parliament?

    Even as Germany is increasingly cracking down on criticism of Islam, it appears prepared to give a genuine Islamic terrorist group the opportunity to win seats in its parliament…
    ***
    In a remarkable decision taken at the end of August, Germany’s Interior Ministry declined to bar the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) — listed as a terrorist organization by the US, Canada, the European Union, and Australia — “from campaigning as a political party in the September general election to the Bundestag.”
    Yes, the PFLP — on a joint list with the Marxist-Leninist Party — plans to field candidates in this month’s elections in Germany and run for Parliament.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 11, 2017.


  • Crashing Dollar Sends European Stocks, US Futures Reeling; Yuan Has Best Week On Record

    European stocks dropped, Asian and EM market rose, and S&P were lower by 0.3% as investors assessed the latest overnight carnage in the USD which plunged to the lowest level since the start of 2015, sending the USDJPY tumbling to 107, the euro extending gains to just shy of $1.21 and a slowdown in China’s export growth which however did not prevent the Yuan from posting its best weekly gain on record.
    It was all about the seemingly huge currency moves overnight as the dollar plunged for the 7th day in a row, the biggest 7 day drop in 4 months, amid doubts about further Federal Reserve tightening, North Korea tensions and as Hurricane Irma threatens South Florida. The Yen rose to the strongest level against the dollar since Nov. amid nervousness about possible provocation from North Korea ahead of its foundation day on Saturday; yen surged past 108 per dollar as options barriers gave way, triggering a series of stop-losses. The Yuan rallied toward 6.45/USD in both onshore and offshore markets as traders speculate PBOC will tolerate a stronger currency after it rose past the psychological 6.50 mark Thursday. The Australian dollar surged to the highest in more than two years on the back of dollar weakness while the cherry on top was the 10Y TSY yield touching a YTD low of 2.014% before rebounding to ~2.035%.
    Meanwhile, natural disasters were aplenty, including the most powerful earthquake this century to shake Mexico, while Hurricane Irma is projected to hit Florida Sunday, and North Korea is widely expected to launch an ICBM on its September 9 holiday.
    As reported last night, the big overnight story was the dramatic plunge in the dollar in Asian trading….

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 8, 2017.


  • Western Australia Slaps Tax Increase on Gold Miners; Move Could Impact Production

    Officials in Western Australia have announced a plan to raise the gold royalty payments the state levies on gold miners by 1.25%, a move that could depress gold output in the world’s second-largest gold producing country.
    Western Australia Premier Mark McGowan said the gold royalty increase from 2.5% to 3.75% per ounce would raise an additional $422 million (US) over four years and will help repair the state’s lagging finances. The higher tax will apply as long as the spot price for gold remains above $1,200 (AUS) per ounce. According to a Reuters report, the last time the price of gold dipped below that level was November 2009.
    The state’s 2017 budget showed a $2.44 billion deficit.
    Western Australia covers the entire western third of the country and accounts for about 80% of the nation’s gold output, according to Reuters. Australia ranks second in the world in gold production, only behind China. The country produced about 287 tons of gold in 2016.

    This post was published at Schiffgold on SEPTEMBER 7, 2017.


  • Australia Mortgage Market Is Now A $1.7 Trillion “House Of Cards”

    Over a decade ago, the U. S. residential housing market was revealed to be perhaps the biggest ponzi scheme ever created as easy financing enabled people to buy/build countless investment properties, that they were in no way adequately capitalized to own, with no money down all based on the premise that the house could be ‘flipped’ before the first mortgage payment even came due. It was a classic ponzi that worked great for a while but inevitably turned south when home prices suddenly soured and their was no cash equity backing the trillions of dollars in outstanding mortgage debt.
    But, if a new report from LF Economics is even directionally accurate, then the bubble currently percolating in Australia could take the residential housing ponzi game to a whole new level courtesy of a ‘creative’ little product called “cross-collateralized residential mortgages.”
    The Australian mortgage market has ‘ballooned’ due to banks issuing new loans against unrealised capital gains of existing investment properties, creating a $1.7 trillion ‘house of cards’, a new report warns.
    The report, ‘The Big Rort’, by LF Economics founder Lindsay David, argues Australian banks’ use of ‘combined loan to value ratio’ – less common in other countries – makes it easy for investors to accumulate ‘multiple properties in a relatively short period of time despite high house prices relative to income’.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 6, 2017.


  • Australia’s Dystopian Future: A Nation Of High-Rise Renters

    Authored by James Fernyhough via TheNewDaily.com,
    Young Australians are increasingly likely to live most of their lives in high-density rented accommodation – and that’s not necessarily such a bad thing.
    That was one of the more controversial findings of a major study into the housing market released in recent days.
    The Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) concluded that capital city home ownership would continue to be unaffordable for at least the next four decades.
    It was grim news for many young Australians, particularly those who have bought into the Aussie dream of owning their own house and backyard in a spacious suburb.
    But the study argued that a lower level of home ownership, and/or a greater level of high-density living, need not be a bad thing.
    In fact, examples from overseas – and even some in Australia – suggest it could be a positive. But this would require a massive shift in policy and, more importantly, attitude.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 6, 2017.


  • Trump: “Now Is Not The Time To Talk To North Korea”

    President Trump spoke yesterday with UK Prime Minister Theresa Theresa May about North Korea and “agreed that this latest reckless act only strengthens the world’s determination to confront” growing threat from that nation, according to White House readout, adding that “now is not the time to talk to North Korea.”
    ***
    Separately, Trump also spoke with Australia Prime Minister Malcom Turnbull yesterday about North Korea’s claimed test of hydrogen bomb. The two leaders confirmed “their two countries will intensify joint efforts to denuclearize North Korea” according to the White House readout.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 6, 2017.


  • Trader: “Markets Have A Slightly Feverish, Twilight-Of-The-Bull-Run Feel”

    With both the S&P and global stocks once again inching back to all time highs, here are some gloomier observations from Bloomberg’s EM commentatory Garfield Reynolds, who has covered and traded FX, bonds and commodities over two decades.
    Down Under Doldrums Challenge Global Growth Hopes: Macro View
    The latest burst of chatter that global growth is finally gathering momentum seems overdone in a world beset by geopolitical nightmares of war and debt deadlock, as well as the nagging concern of demographic-driven disinflation. And the recent slump for the key risk proxies among the G-10 currencies — the Aussie and kiwi dollars — shows the need to be careful we don’t get dizzy with thoughts of success.
    The two countries backing these tenders are beholden to raw materials exports, and they straddle a decent cross-section of the key non-oil commodities — iron ore, coal, gold for Australia; milk and wool for New Zealand.
    Accelerating world output should be driving up demand for at least some of this stuff, and yet the Aussie and the kiwi languished at the bottom last month among the major G-10 currencies… along with the Brexiting pound.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 1, 2017.


  • Why Houston Doesn’t Need Federal Flood Relief – In Four Charts

    In his article today, Christopher Westley noted that Texas’s economy – when measured by GDP – is larger than Canada’s. In other words: If Texas were an independent country, it would be the world’s 10th largest economy (totaling $1.6 trillion), and its citizens would be more than capable of addressing natural disasters of the magnitude of a major flood. Texas’s economy is also larger than those of Russia and Australia.
    By why stop our analysis at the state of Texas? Indeed, if we look at the GDP of the Houston metropolitan area, we find it comes in at $503 billion. This total is similar to the GDPs of Poland, Belgium, and Austria. It’s significantly larger than the GDPs of Norway and Denmark.1

    This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on Aug 31, 2017.


  • Former Australian PM Admits He Was Passed Out Drunk During Crucial Financial Crisis Vote

    After years of lies and deflections, Australia’s former prime minister Tony Abbott has admitted on a local television program that he missed a crucial 2009 vote on a $42 billion stimulus package intended to shore up the country’s banking system during the financial crisis because he was passed out drunk.
    Abbott, then a member of the Liberal party’s front bench, said he fell asleep on the couch in his office after consuming ‘quite a few bottles of wine’ with two of his peers in the MP’s dining room ‘and could not be roused.’ The next thing he knew, it was morning, and he had missed the vote, according to the Herald Sun.

    This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 26, 2017.