One week ago, in his weekly “flow report“, BofA’s Michael Hartnett looked at the “Disconnect Myth” between rising stocks and sliding yields and succinctly said that there is “no disconnect between stocks & bonds.”
Why? The reason for low yields and high stocks was simple: trillions in central bank intervention. The result is an era of lower yields & higher stocks, or as the chart above shows, an era in which the alligator jaws of death are just waiting for their moment to shine. Here are the three phases:
1981-2009 (disinflation/Fed put), 10-year Treasury yields down from 15.8% to 3.9% = 10.7% annualized S&P 500 returns; 2009-2016 (Fed QE/global ZIRP) yields down from 3.9% to 2.4% = 14.9% SPX ann. return; 2017 YTD (ECB/BoJ QE) yield down to 2%, SPX annualizing 17.5%. Fast forward to today, when in the interim period stocks have continued to rise, hitting new all time highs in both the US and globally, oblivious of any news and fundamental developments – as one would expect from a massive asset price bubble, and in line with what Hartnett has dubbed a Liquidity Supernova.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 15, 2017.