“Godfather” Of Abenomics Admits Japanese Policy “Is A Ponzi Game… Taxpayers May Revolt”

Jon

Koichi Hamada is a special adviser to prime minister Shinzo Abe and one of his closest confidants. That makes his comments, as The Telegraph reports, even more stunningly concerning. Focusing his attention on the fact that Japan must delay the 2nd stage of its planned consumption tax hike – for fear of derailing the ‘recovery’ – Hamada unwittingly, it seems, explains the terrible reality behind the so-called “godfather” of Abenomics’ perspective on the extreme monetary policy he has unleashed…
Select stunning quotes that everyone should ignore and just BTFPonziD in Japan…
‘The consumption tax hike is a great big turbulence to the Japanese economy. It may have erased almost two thirds of the benefits of Abenomics,’ he told the Telegraph. ‘At the very least, a third of this great experiment is gone.“

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/17/2014.

STEALING YOUR WEALTH BY STEALTH

Jon

Last year, I was roundly criticized when I said the Cyprus scenario is coming here. I was told there would be a revolution if this happened and the government would be to afraid to try such a thing. I marvel at people who hold to such naive beliefs. The American people have been through several beta tests related to our private wealth being confiscated and no resistance was offered (e.g. MF Global).
Listening to the sheep that believe Wolf Blitzer who tells us that the economy is in recovery, is like listening to a country song played backwards. You know the all-to-familiar message, the wife does not leave, the truck still runs and the guy stops drinking. Maybe it is all the fluoride in the water that is causing such widespread ignorance and apathy.
First of all, our government is not the main enemy. This is not the government we are dealing with. We are battling organized crime in the form of corporations like Goldman Sachs who have hijacked our government and now they have captured the G20. They are lining up for the last great garage sale before they collapse the economy and roll out martial law. There are forces lining up to steal everything that you and I own. It has already begun but this country is so dumbed down, we do not see that it has already started.
The Bankers Have Committed a Coup Against the United States Government
The United States government is not your main enemy, it is the banksters who have hijacked your government. Some of the sheep might be wondering when that happened. The year was 2008 and the event was called a bail-out. This evil was born in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve. This pervasive evil killed America when the first dollar arrived at the door of Goldman Sachs in the form of a bail-out in 2008. Bye-Bye Miss American Pie, that was the day the music died for America.
Yesterday, on November 16, 2014, it was revealed that when you awakened, a new G20 policy was enacted which effectively stole your bank account. For the time being, you still have some access to some of your money. If you have $100,000 in the bank, try taking that money out today and see how fast the Federal authorities show up in your life. And if you did manage to get your money out of the bank, don’t forget about the cop on the corner poised to steal your money under the banner of ‘civilian asset forfeiture’. Pardon me, I digress.
Yesterday’s article revealed that your money, that is in your bank account, is no longer called money. As a result, when the banks begin to fail, one by one, you will not be at the head of the line to collect your reimbursement from the FDIC, you will be last in line because you have no ‘money’ in the bank. This effectively means that you will get nothing for your lost and subsequently confiscated bank account. However, your bank account will not be the only casualty from your financial portfolio. The banksters are preparing to steal EVERYTHING that is not nailed down and thisGRAND THEFT AMERICA will begin with your bank account and will quickly take every other financial asset.
Undoubtedly, the trigger for this approaching calamity will be a series of major bank failures. Some of the sheep will say, ‘there will be no bank failures, will there’?

This post was published at The Common Sense Show on Nov 17, 2014.

“Mystery of the Unexpected” Explained; Japan Slides Into Recession Yet Again; Blue Ribbon Panel in Review

Jon

With two consecutive quarters of contracting Gross Domestic Product, Japan is officially back in recession. GDP shrank 1.6% annualized.
Unadjusted for price changes, the Japanese economy contracted an annualized 3 percent, the Cabinet Office said.
None of this was “expected”. We will explore “why” in a moment. First consider some headlines.
Bloomberg: Japan Unexpectedly Enters Recession as Abe Weighs Tax.
Wall Street Journal: Japan Falls Into Recession. GDP Declines 1.6%, Setting Stage for Delay in [Another] Sales-Tax Increase.
Time: Japan Sinks Into Recession (Again).
Time Reports …
An unexpected contraction in quarterly GDP shows that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s radical economic program is badly broken. GDP in the quarter ended September shrank by an annualized 1.6% – far, far worse than the consensus forecasts. That followed a disastrous 7.3% contraction in the previous quarter. Speculation in Japan is that the bad results will push Abe to call a snap election only two years after taking office.
Financial Times: Sales Tax Tips Japan Back Into Recession
Financial Times Reports …

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on November 17, 2014.

Small Caps Slump For 3rd Day – Worst Streak Since “Bullard Lows”

Jon

Overnight weakness from Japan (NKY -3%) and USDJPY slowly leaked away as Europe was bid – bouncing higher on Draghi’s SovQE “whatever it takes” comments (and multiple broken markets), but once he stopped speaking stocks faded to the lows of the day at the European Close. Once it was just the American algos playing, the S&P and Dow ripped back to green. However, Small Caps, Nasdaq and Trannies were not playing along, nor was VIX or HY Credit. The USD surged 0.45% (on EUR weakness) which stalled the bounce in commodities. Gold flatlined through the US session (-0.25%) with Silver -1% (bouncing this afternoon). Oil prices slipped 0.5% again (but above Friday’s lows) at $75.50. Treasury yields rose 1-2bps on the day (but 5-6bps off the overnight lows as Europe opened) but flatlined during US session. Most notably, it seems many feel like Carl Icahn that a major correction is coming and hedging via VIX and HY credit was significant.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/17/2014.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – Knowledge Without Wisdom

Jon

‘The evil effect of science upon men is principally this, that by far the greatest number of those who wish to display a knowledge of it accomplish no improvement at all of the understanding, but only a perversity of it. It serves most of them as a tool of vanity.’
Immanuel Kant
‘Knowledge without wisdom is a load of books on the back an ass’
Chinese Proverb
The lesson to be learned from this imperial overreach will be hard indeed.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 17 NOVEMBER 2014.

Petrobrast From The Past

Jon

Four years ago, bankers, politicians, and traders were patting themselves on the back after Petroleo Brasiliero (Petrobras) raised a stunning $70 billion in the world’s largest share sale, as Bloomberg reported at the time, investors bet on its plans to double output within a decade by tapping offshore fields. Things haven’t worked out so well…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/17/2014.

Carl Icahn: “One Day You’ll See A Break Like A Few Weeks Ago But The Market Won’t Come Back”

Jon

It seems Carl Icahn will not be going activist on the S&P500 after all.
During the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York on Monday, the 78 year old billionaire said that “I am still concerned that one day you’ll see a break like you had a few weeks ago but it won’t come back.”
Of course, that would suggest no more central bank interventions, of the verbal Bullard-kind, or otherwise. In other words, either the Fed losing control or losing all credibility with the market, at which point a stock market downturn would be the least of anyone’s worries.
And while most have dismissed the October near correction in the market, Icahn said he is more concerned and is predicting a downturn. “It’s really a question of when that is going to happen, in my opinion. It could be three years, it could be three months, it could be three days. But I really do believe there will be a major correction in the next three to five years, at least.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/17/2014.

“Debt Trap” Nonsense; Eurosceptics on Rise; Demise of the EU: “Soon There Won’t be a Europe” Says Telegraph

Jon

Eurozone Breakup Coming
Telegraph writer Jeremy Warner moans Soon, There Won’t be a Europe to be Part Of.
“It’s not a question of in or out, but of whether Britain can avoid the flames of destruction,” says Warner.
On that I certainly agree. In general, Warner has the “what’s happening” part correct has but his synopsis of what to do about things is exactly the same tried-and-failed Keynesian and monetarist clatrap the Telegraph always sponsors.
Warner’s nonsense culminates with “It is an economic truth pretty much universally acknowledged that you cannot deflate your way out of a debt trap, yet it seems entirely lost on the eurozone high command.”
Europe is really attempting deflate? Really? In what alternate universe?
Debt Trap Nonsense
The entire notion there is such a thing as a “debt trap” is a Keynesian-sponsored fallacy.
The facts of the matter are simple:
Central bank Monetarists in conjunction with Keynesian fiscal fools created the “debt problem” with absurd inflationary policies. Now that debt-bubbles have burst, Jeremy Warner, like his Telegraph counterpart, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and multitudes of writers and academics, expect the same polices that created the debt problem to cure it! Attempts to inflate out of alleged “debt traps” are nothing more than absurd can-kicking exercises that defy common sense. Japan is real-life proof.
Rise of the Eurosceptics
Let’s leave the “why” and the “what to do about things” aside and instead focus on Warner’s perception of what is happening right now on the eurosceptic front.

This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on November 17, 2014.

The Market’s Dodging Boomerangs, Not Bullets

Jon

The current market environment joins the full range of ingredients that have characterized the most extreme market peaks – and preceded the deepest market plunges – in more than a century of history. On the basis of measures that are best correlated with actual subsequent market returns (and plenty of popular measures are not), we observe the richest market valuations in history with the exception of the 2000 peak. Even then, current levels on the best performing measures are only about 15-20% below the 2000 extreme. Current valuations now exceed those observed in 1901, 1929, 1937, 1972, 1987, and 2007. The 5-year market advance from the 2009 low, encouraged by yield-seeking speculation, now places the S&P 500 at more than double the level that we would associate with historically normal returns. Put another way, we presently estimate S&P 500 prospective nominal total returns of just 1.4% annually over the coming decade, with zero or negative average total returns out to roughly 2022. These valuations are coupled with extremely overbought conditions and the most lopsided bullish sentiment since 1987. Bearish sentiment is now down to 14.8% (Investor’s Intelligence), close to the low of 13.3% reached in September. Prior to this year, the last two times we’ve seen such lopsided sentiment were the April 2011 peak (just before a near-20% dive), and the October 2007 peak.
Of particular note, extreme overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions – which we’ve observed sporadically for quite some time now – have more recently been accompanied by widening credit spreads and deterioration in broad market internals. We have entered an environment in which extraordinarily thin risk premiums have been joined in recent weeks by a subtle shift toward increasing risk aversion.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/17/2014.

If Everything’s So Awesome, Why Is This Happening?

Jon

The Dow and S&P have shrugged off any belief that yet another Japanese recession will impact the invincible American economy… but Small Caps, Nasdaq, and Trannies are a little more concerned. However, if everything is so awesome in the US, then why are credit and equity market professionals buying protection hand over fist?
Equity managers buying protection as the S&P limps higher…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/17/2014.

Confidence Lost – (Or When Words No Longer Matter)

Jon

One of the first things one learns when they are in a position of leadership is this: Choose your words carefully, mean what you say, then do what you say you’ll do. If you find you were wrong – admit it, state the reasons why clearly, then articulate once again clearly eschewing as much obliqueness as humanly possible what your intents are going forward – then do them. Rinse, repeat.
The above comes via experience, not some text-book found on some dusty bookshelf within the hallowed halls of academia where theory and an overdrawn dissection of minutia allows one to feel empowered to ‘lead’ others.
The attitude displayed for many who’ve partaken only in thought experiments is this: If they endured endless hours of discussion in classrooms, with noses buried in textbooks, listening to drawn-out oratory given by some professor (where they themselves more than likely never applied these principles in real life situations) and now bear some parchment stating they concluded the preceding, then by dint – they are now qualified to either ‘lead’ or be ‘leaders.’ It’s not only a misguided pretense – It’s a load of bunk.
No more is this phenom becoming more prevalent than in the political arena today. I don’t care if you’re on the Left, Right, or somewhere in between. This isn’t about which side you’re on, or the ‘your guy or gal’ debate. I’m speaking directly about confidence in leadership and what happens when it’s lost.
Although the clearest current examples are what is taking place in the political, make no mistake – they are also happening within the business community at a similar breathtaking pace.
Currently politicians and others involved in policy making are clamoring up to any camera, microphone, or reporter to ‘clarify’ what they stated clearly and emphatically previously.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on 11/17/2014.

SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts – – Overflowing

Jon

Equities are in a bubble, but the real economy continues to languish.
Paper money is overwhelming, and overflowing.
There is some thought that the US can never print too many dollars for the rest of the world to take.
Hubris does not even begin to describe the financial system of the Anglo-American banking cartel.
Who are these people? What are they thinking? Their ability to bully others blinds them to the balances of the real world.
This will end badly.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 17 NOVEMBER 2014.

Events Impacting The Gold And Silver Price In The Week Of November 17th

Jon

In this article, we summarize the key events of the running week that could have an impact on the price of gold and silver price because of trading in COMEX futures.
Over the last week, between November 10th and 15th, both gold and silver started the week steeply lower before rallying very sharply on Friday 15th. The same scenario we described last week applies again: it seems to be a V-bottom in the making. We can’t help but believe that a huge bottom is in the making. We also believe there is a big chance that a final spike lower is in the making after which the metals start recovering from a 3-year bear market. We consider at least a 50% probability that this scenario will occur.

This post was published at GoldSilverWorlds on November 17, 2014.

Swiss Bands EU Immigation

Jon

The Swiss voters have spoken – enough is enough – go home Europeans! The Swiss will now block EU immigrants fleeing Germany and other European states seeking to get away from the Euroland insanity. Now European immigrants entering the country will face very strict regulations that effectively said no more. There has been a rising anti-immigrant and anti-EU movement in Switzerland. The Swiss central bank took the stupid approach of pegging the franc to the euro. They have huge losses that will only send the Swiss economy into a death spiral next year.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on November 17, 2014.

SILVERSEEK – Monthly Gold & Silver Stock Update

Jon

The U. S. Fed’s announcement in October that it was ending quantitative easing capped a tough month for precious metal producers. The news triggered another wave of selling in gold dropping under $1,200 and silver falling even more aggressively to under $16. The fall only compounds challenges for producers whose third quarter results already show stress from the metal prices.
A technical perspective shows the breach of $1,180 area, a key support level, creating more problems for gold. Unless the price can recover back and hold above, the next downside target should take the price to the $1,088 Fibonacci support area.
The renewed wave of fear has hit gold-silver stocks very hard with 2008 lows now being re-tested. If the gold-silver prices can find a bottom soon, and it could have very well put it has in this past week, then I expect that these stock prices will reverse dramatically. But until the fear of much lower gold and silver prices subsides, negative pressures will dominate and volatility will be at historic levels.
SEABRIDGE GOLD continues to expand its KSM deposit, with new drill results expanding the potential of the Iron Cap Lower Zone including an impressive 593 metre-intercept grading 1.14 g/t gold and 0.37% copper. The company has traced the zone for 750 metres and it is still open to the north and at depth. With so many results coming in Seabridge expects to have a first resource estimate out on the new zone in the first quarter of 2015.
The company has also secured early construction permits for the KSM project, including roads, camps, and some mine facilities. In addition, the company secured critical rights to build a tunnel to connect the future mine and processing facilities. November could be a big month for de-risking KSM as they are expecting a final decision on their Federal environmental assessment.

This post was published at SilverSeek on November 17, 2014.

The Great EU Farce Will End Soon

Jon

Mario Draghi once again surfaced this morning to promise to do ‘whatever it takes’ to help the Eurozone. Draghi has done this anytime the EU markets drop ever since the bottom in the summer of 2012.
It’s amazing to watch, particularly when you consider that it is now public information that Draghi actually didn’t have a plan when he first claimed this and is effectively making up policy on the fly.
Here are Draghi’s comments from this morning:
*DRAGHI SAYS ECB WILL DO WHATEVER IT TAKES, WITHIN ITS MANDATE
*DRAGHI SAYS EXPANDED PURCHASE PROGRAM COULD INCLUDE GOVT BONDS
Note, that the first statement contains the qualifier ‘within its mandate.’ Of course traders and investors won’t bother to consider that the ECB’s mandate DOESN’T ALLOW IT TO BUY SOVEREIGN BONDS.
It’s not entirely their fault. Draghi is huge liar (as in Jean-Claude Juncker’s statement that ‘when it gets serious, you have to lie.’) This is why he stated that the ECB’s expanded purchase program ‘could’ include Government bonds.
Sure… it could, but it would be illegal and would instigate an outright revolt from Germany.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 17 November 2014.

Japan Falls Into Surprise Recession

Jon

Japan will remain the dominant theme in today’s session; this prompted a big sell-off in Japan that carried into Europe and will have a bearing on our markets today as well. With not much on the economic calendar and the Q3 earnings season slowly moving into the rearview mirror, this news risks bringing back the global growth fears that had become a big headwind for the markets a month back.
The sales tax changes that the government of prime minister Shino Abe of Japan put into place early this year pushed GDP growth into the negative territory in the June quarter. But everyone expected that to happen; the long-planned sales tax increase had brought forward consumer spending at the expense of the June quarter. But the hope was that spending will get back to ‘normal’ in the September quarter and start ramping up in the final quarter of the year, which will pave the way for the next round of sales tax increases. This is the context in which makes today’s GDP numbers from that country so surprising and disappointing.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 11/17/2014.

ALERT: World’s Largest Derivative Holder…Wobbling!

Jon

All eyes are on Deutsche Bank’s $75T Derivative portfolio at the moment as they just announced they will be “scaling back” their most profitable nuclear ponzi scheme…Credit Default Swaps!
Deutsche Bank Scales Back Trading in Credit Derivatives
“The bank is exiting part of the market as trading linked to swaps protecting against the default of individual companies plunged from as much as $32 trillion before the financial crisis to less than $11 trillion, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Trading in the market, which was blamed for helping to exacerbate the financial crisis, has become more expensive as regulators across U. S. and Europe have stepped up scrutiny and increased balance-sheet requirements making it harder to carry out trades.”
“Earlier this month, the company announced that the co-head of its fixed-income trading business was stepping down, leaving Richard Herman to become the sole head of the department, according to the company.”
END

Remember…for every derivative written there is a counter-party taking the other side of that bet.
Keep an eye on this story as it can bring the financial markets to a halt if it starts spreading to other banks.
My advice – Stay indoors…and not just for the crappy weather!
May the Road you choose be the Right Road.
Bix Weir
www. RoadtoRoota.com

This post was published at RoadtoRoota on Today.

EU – Planning to Spend Money It Doesn’t Have

Jon

The Press Takes Notice of a Small Problem We have previously discussed the plans announced by EU commission president JC Juncker to ‘rescue’ the euro area economy by means of 300 billion of state-directed spending (see ‘Juncker’s Solution’ for details). Now the mainstream press is also beginning to wonder where the money for this ambitious spending plan is supposed to be coming from. A report by Reuters contains a few points worth commenting on:
‘New European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker is preparing a 300 billion euro ($375 billion) investment plan he will present as a cornerstone of efforts to revive an ailing economy. But history suggests the program risks becoming an exercise in financial engineering rather than a conduit for the new money the region needs to help boost output and create jobs.
A flagship project of the new European Union executive, the investment scheme is due to be unveiled before Christmas. It is still being finalized and few details have been made public. If all the money it promises is raised and spent, it could provide the 28-nation EU with roughly an additional 0.7 percent of GDP in investment per year over three years.
‘It is significant,’ said Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING bank in Frankfurt. ‘You would expect some kind of a multiplier effect from investment on jobs and purchasing power and it would increase the growth potential. The downside is that public investment can take years before it gets started.’
But even more than ‘when?’, the big question hanging over the plan is ‘how much?’. The 300 billion euros is an overall target for both the public and private money that the Commission hopes to mobilize. The Commission itself does not have any money and is funded through annual EU budgets that must be balanced. Of the region’s 28 governments, only Germany seems to have public finances strong enough to significantly increase investment. But in its drive to have a balanced budget, Berlin is not keen to spend more.
So the Commission plans to use what little public money is available to lure bigger private funds into projects that would otherwise seem too risky or with too low a rate of return.
‘Our aim is to ‘crowd in’ private money for big infrastructure projects in the energy sector, transport, broadband or research and development. The private sector cannot take all the risks,’ Commission Vice President Jyrki Katainen told Reuters.

This post was published at Acting-Man on November 17, 2014.