Outside the Box, for a number of new readers who have joined us, is a letter in which I feature someone else’s work each week, and often it is a view contrary to mine. I have to continually remind readers that just because I include something in an Outside the Box doesn’t mean that I agree with it. I think it pays us to read people we don’t agree with.
John Maynard Keynes was an enormously influential economist, but some of his detractors complained that the opinions he expressed tended to change over the years. Once, during a high-profile government hearing, a critic accused him of being inconsistent, and Keynes reportedly answered with one of the following lines (accounts vary):
When events change, I change my mind. What do you do?
When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?
When my information changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?
When someone persuades me that I am wrong, I change my mind. What do you do?
I am rather well-known for suggesting that Japan was a bug in search of a windshield and in predicting that the yen would go 200 to the dollar. About four years ago, when the yen was at 100, I even purchased 10-year options, which were ridiculously cheap, with strike prices 20 to 30 yen higher. I was willing to be patient and wait for 10 years, if I had to.
This post was published at Mauldin Economics on SEPTEMBER 6, 2017.
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