After numerous media appearances, Macron and Le Pen are facing each other in a TV debate tonight, which Barclays’ analyst Francois Cabau dubs “Crucial.”
According to Barclays, this debate is key for two main reasons: 1) it will allow Le Pen to clarify her views on Europe (that she has tried to soften to a large extent recently in an apparent move to attract Fillon’s voters) which are arguably a weak point on her side; and 2) it may be seen to, informally, mark the start of the campaign for the legislative elections.
Some further thoughts from Barclays:
Since the first round, there has been unclear second-round voter guidance from some of the Republicans, including Laurent Wauquiez, Interim president of the Republicans, as well as Jean-Luc Mlenchon, who declined to announce how he would vote next Sunday. This has reduced clarity, and has weakened the so-called ‘Republican front’ against Front National. Despite Le Pen striking an historical alliance with another party (of the sovereignist candidate Nicolas Dupont-Aignant), polls have remained largely stable, only tightening very slightly recently, pointing to a c.20pp lead for Macron – with polls having shown very good reliability in the first round.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on May 3, 2017.
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