Republican Mutiny Fizzles: “Trump Will Be On The Ballot”

Amid the constant headlines, speculative reporting, uncited sourcing, and relentless spin; it appears chatter of mutiny aboard the GOP has been officially squashed.
As The Hill reports, the Republican National Committee is categorically denying reports that party officials are looking into how to replace Donald Trump in case he drops out of the presidential race before Election Day…
No one at national party headquarters has been instructed to look into that doomsday scenario, RNC strategist Sean Spicer said, and speculation that the RNC might pressure Trump to drop out of the race is unfounded. Spicer insisted that there is no chance that anyone else will be the ballot in November.
‘Donald Trump is the nominee of the Republican Party full-stop,’ Spicer told The Hill. ‘That’s the reality. The rest is just a media-pundit concoction.’.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 3, 2016.

Vancouver Housing Bubble, Meet Pin

The short sellers are coming: ‘a money-laundering-induced market.’
The Canadian province of British Columbia may have gotten what it asked for in instituting the now notorious 15% transfer tax on home purchases involving foreign investors.
Benchmark prices of Vancouver still exhibit astounding year-over-year increases, with apartment prices up 27% and detached house prices up 38%, now at C$$1,578,300. But overall sales plunged to 3,226 homes, down 27% from the record in June and down 19% from a year ago.
‘This is the first time since January 2016 that home sales in the region have registered below 4,000 in a month,’ admits the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. While apartment sales dropped ‘only’ 7% year-over-year, sales of detached homes plummeted 31%!
And it’s spreading beyond Vancouver. For example, housing-refugees make their way to Fraser Valley, which borders Metro Vancouver. The formerly bucolic and more affordable Langley Township is now highly developed and getting more so:

This post was published at Wolf Street by Angela Johnson ‘ August 3, 2016.

Goldman Finds The Treasury Market No Longer Reacts To Economic Data

For all the younger traders in our audience, we would like to inform you that maybe not now, but once upon a time, markets actually used to respond to economic data. That includes both stocks as well as the market that has been historically considered far “smarter” than equities, the Treasury market. Sadly, as central banks took over, the significance of economic data released declined until recently it has virtually stopped mattering, something we predicted would happen back in 2009 when we warned that soon the only financial report that matters is the Fed’s weekly H.4.1 statement.
Today, some six years later, Goldman picks up where we left off nearly a decade ago, and asks “Does the Treasury Market Still Care about Economic Data?”
What it finds is simple (and something even the most lay of market observers these days could have told them): no.
As Goldman’s Elad Pashtan writes, “the sensitivity of US Treasury yields to economic data surprises has declined to near record-lows over the last two years. We find that the pattern of reactions to data surprises across the yield curve matches pre-crisis norms – with higher sensitivity for short-term rates than longer-term rates – but the average reactions are much lower; for breakeven inflation reactions to growth data are not discernible from zero.”
So if it is not the economy, then what does the “market” respond to? Take a wild guess:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 3, 2016.

End of Driving Season Could Send Oil Back to February Lows

Summer driving season: it’s the season to be traveling, what with long weekends, annual leaves and short getaways from the banalities of everyday life at the office. The summer season in the Northern Hemisphere is when demand for crude oil invariably picks up because fuel consumption increases. In Europe, there’s greater hunger for diesel and in the US there’s a pickup in gasoline demand. Usually.
This year’s driving season, however, is shaping up to be a very disappointing exception to the usual seasonal patterns in fuel demand. People are not traveling now as much as analysts expected back in May. Back then, the outlook was rosy, with some analysts forecasting an oil rebound to as much as $60 a barrel. Instead, we got WTI slipping into a bear market.
The driving season ends next month, which is when most refineries shut down for maintenance after operating at near-full capacity during the summer months. This is – historically – when gasoline demand subsides. The end of summer travels is also when gasoline stockpiles in the US could increase, further pushing down crude oil prices.
In the week ending 22 July, the EIA reported, gasoline production averaged 10.1 million barrels a day, more than in the previous week. Inventories of the most popular fuel also went up – by 500,000 barrels – after a 900,000-barrel buildup in the week ending 15 July. That buildup took the market by complete surprise – few seemed to have expected anything but a decline in fuel stockpiles in the very middle of driving season. Yet, they got the opposite.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 08/03/2016.

A Most Remarkable Market: In Week The S&P Hit Record High, Everyone Sold

This continues to be truly the most remarkable “market.”
Last week, in which the S&P 500 hit new all time highs, BofAML reports that its clients (institutions, hedge funds and private clients) who have sold stocks for all but 2-3 weeks in all of 2016, once again sold $1.9 billion of US stocks, the largest weekly outflow since early June. Net sales were led by institutional clients, which has been true most weeks this year; redemptions from mutual funds amid poor performance is likely one driver here. Private clients were also net sellers (for the fourth week), with sales by this group their largest since early 2014. Hedge funds were small net sellers after buying stocks for the prior seven weeks.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 3, 2016.

Is Trump Dropping Out of the Election?

The Republican National Committee is reportedly weighing its options in the event that GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump drops out of the election.
But is Trump dropping out of the race?
Here’s what we know…
This morning, ABC News’ Jonathan Karl told ‘Good Morning America’ that he’s been told senior officials in the party are actively looking into how they’ll replace the real estate magnate.
‘This is absolutely unprecedented,’ Karl said. ‘I am told that RNC chairman Reince Priebus is furious he has had multiple discussions with Trump telling him he needs to drastically change course.’

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Money Morning Staff Reports ‘ August 3, 2016.

Homeownership at 51-Year Low: The Feds Have Failed

Americans have long regarded owning a home to be largely synonymous with the so-called “American dream” although high homeowernship rates are not necessarily synonymous with a high-income prosperous society. Switzerland and Germany, for example, have homeownership rates well below that usually found in the US.
Nevertheless, the US government has long made increasing homeownership an important policy goal, and this has led to a number of large and costly programs and institutions including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, FHA, and a plethora of federal regulations surrounding mortgage lending and banking.
Judging by the government’s own criteria, it has all been a failure.
According to the most recent homeownership data from the US Census Bureau, the homeownership rate in the United States is now at the lowest level it’s been since the bureau began tracking quarterly data in 1965.
As of the second quarter of 2016, the homeownership rate in the United States was, according to the Bureau, 62.9 percent. That’s exactly equal to the rate recorded during the third quarter of 1965 – nearly 51 years ago:

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on Aug 3, 2016.

America’s Oligarchs Support Clinton Almost Unanimously

The results are already in, even before the official campaign-finance final figures will become available after the election.
Though a large percentage of the people funding the campaign advertising will never be made public – due to recent Supreme Court decisions allowing ‘dark money’ – data already exist on the final product of the campaigns (including both the above-board and the dark money), which is the booked advertising time for each of the two candidates at the start of their campaigns. (Similar proportions of donations go also to get-out-the-vote and other campaign-activities; so, these booked-advertising figures correlate rather well with across-the-board funding of the two campaigns.)
Advertising rates – the charges per second of air-time – get higher and higher the later and closer to Election Day the time is booked; so, any candidate who books late is really starved for funds and has little chance of winning; any candidate who does the booking early is getting a big break from the networks and from certain other media. This discount, for early booking, magnifies even further the cash-advantage of the candidate whom the oligarchs prefer.
However, normally, both Parties’ nominees have their own billionaires backing them (Republican billionaires backing the Republican nominee, and Democratic billionaires backing the Democratic nominee), and so there’s a real contest, they both have a chance; but not this time: Look at the figures, and you can see that, this time around, virtually all of the oligarchs are backing only one candidate: they have united around Clinton.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 3, 2016.

Nobody But US! Why the Rise of the One Percent Makes Janet Yellen’s Job Harder(?)

Bloomberg has an interesting piece this morning entitled ‘Why the Rise of the One Percent Makes Janet Yellen’s Job Harder.’
Income inequality could be making Janet Yellen’s job even harder.
Rich Americans spend less of their paychecks than households of more modest means. As the top one percent accounts for an increasing share of the nation’s income, it may be reducing consumption, hurting growth and boosting savings. That could be contributing to rock-bottom interest rates that have left the Federal Reserve chair with little scope to ease in the next recession.
Take David Levine, a former chief economist at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. who’s been a member of the one percent for decades. Levine says he’s ‘not living frugally’ yet still spends only about a fifth of his income to maintain a very comfortable lifestyle on Manhattan’s affluent upper west side.
Contrast that with a middle-class American family. Those making between $70,000 and $80,000 spent about 78 percent of their incomes in 2014.
There is no doubt that income inequality is worsening since the end of 2007. Declining real median household income combined with massive monetary easing from The Federal Reserve is creating even more income inequality.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Anthony B. Sanders ‘ August 3, 2016.

The Economic Collapse In Venezuela Is So Bad That People Are Slaughtering And Eating Zoo Animals

If you were hungry enough, would you kill and eat zoo animals? To most of us such a notion sounds absolutely insane, but this is actually happening in Venezuela right now. This is a country where people are standing in lines for up to 12 hours hoping that there will be food to buy that day, and where rioting and looting have become commonplace. So even though the U. S. economy is in dreadful shape at this moment, we should be thankful for what we have, because at least we are not experiencing a full-blown economic collapse yet like Venezuela currently is.
Black stallions can be some of the most beautiful horses on the entire planet, but things are so desperate down in Venezuela this summer that everything looks like food to some people at this point. What happened at the Caricuao Zoo on Sunday is so horrible that I actually debated whether or not to share it with you. Desperate people do desperate things, and when people get hungry enough they will do things such as this…
Venezuela’s worsening food shortages had tragic consequences for a rare show horse last weekend, when a group of intruders broke into the zoo, pulled the black stallion from its cage, then slaughtered it for meat.
Prosecutors say the crime occurred in the small hours of Sunday morning at Caracas’ Caricuao Zoo, when ‘several people’ sneaked into the state-run park under the cover of darkness and busted into the stallion’s pen. The horse, the only one of its kind in the zoo, was then led to a more secluded area and butchered on the spot. Only its head and ribs were left behind in a gruesome pile for zookeepers to find after sunrise.
Unfortunately, this precious animal was not even the first victim at that particular zoo.
A few weeks ago, pigs and sheep were the targets…

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on August 3rd, 2016.

“We Have Lost Our Way… Someone Has To Stand Up For The Truth”

I think it’s time to clear the air. For those of you who still don’t seem to understand my job, let me make it perfectly clear… I do not work for a political party. I work for America, it’s ideals and our constitution. It’s not my job to be the cheerleader for a party, or an individual. It’s my job to protect America and defend its principles. And frankly, I don’t care if you agree with me or not.
As an editorial cartoonist, I have a consistent record for over thirty years as a constitutional conservative, a free market capitalist and defender of America and its ideals.
America is great. America is an exceptional nation and a beacon for liberty. I believe, absolutely, in this grand Republic. It is the greatest country in the world. But the strength of America and the solutions for America, lie in its people, in our foundation of liberty and freedom, and not in one individual or the government.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 3, 2016.

Reagan Versus Obama Recovery: 5.85% Annual Household Income Growth Versus 1.10%

The ADP jobs report is out this morning and we saw an additional 179K jobs added in July. But is this a strong recovery as some think?
A natural comparison of the Obama/Fed recovery is to compare it to the Reagan recovery. Much like Mickey Mantle versus Willie Mays and Cassius Clay versus Sonny Liston. Probably more like Clay (aka. Ali) versus Liston.
First, let’s take a look an unemployment and median household income. Both Reagan and Obama inherited deteriorating economies and rising unemployment rates. Reagan’s unemployment rate peaked at 10.8% in November 1982 while Obama’s unemployment rate peaked at 10.0% in October 2009. Both Presidents saw U-3 unemployment rates fall in half over their terms in office.
The BIG difference came in the form of median family income. Reagan’s economy grew at an average rate of 5.85% from 1981 to 1989. Obama;s economy grew at an average rate of 1.10% from 2009 to 2015 (2016 hasn’t ended yet, but it looks like that average of 1.10% will be lowered by the end of 2016).

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Anthony B. Sanders ‘ August 3, 2016.

Tesla Misses, Burns Nearly Half A Billion, Warns It Has Hit Bank “Funding Limit”: Stock Rises

ollowing several repeat, and loud, warnings that sales are slowing down, moments ago Elon Musk did not disappoint and reported results that missed substantially on both the top and the bottom line, with non-GAAP EPS of (1.02) nearly twice as bad as what consensus expected.
Q2 results missed on both the top and bottom line:
Revenue $1.56B vs. $1.63B est EPS ($1.02) vs. ($0.56) est But while the adjusted, non-GAAP financials (even revenue) have never mattered for this most hyped stock ever, the reason why the stock is up in the after hours, is because TSLA announced Q2 deliveries of 14,402 which were just fractionally better than what Musk had warned a month ago, when he guided down to 14,370. So TSLA basically beat the downward revised guidance.
This is how Musk explained the poor Q2 output:
We delivered fewer cars in Q2 than originally planned as a result of our steep production ramp, which resulted in almost half of Q2 production occurring in the final four weeks of the quarter. Given inflection points in the production ramp and firm shipping cutoffs, shifting production by even a short period of time had a disproportionate impact on the number of cars that were delivered by quarter end
So… Tesla delivered fewer cars because it was producing more cars? Got it.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 3, 2016.

Get Prepared The Economic Indicators Are Declining Rapidly – Episode 1039a

The following video was published by X22Report on Aug 3, 2016
Real estate deals are collapsing in Vancouver, as more people back out of deals. ADP job reports shows construction jobs have declined. Office Depot, Kate Spade and others are reporting losses during this incredible recovery. Auto sales decline for the month of July, the only reason auto sales had a boost was because of fleet sales and government sales. Service sectors declines and Q3 does not look good. Mortgage apps fall again, and real estate companies are preparing for losses. The European banks did not do well in the stress tests and their stocks are dropping.

Waiting for Growth

Every policy discussion, in the media or the political arena, touches inevitably on the sensitive issue of economic growth. Over the past year, these discussions have revolved primarily around the sluggish growth experienced by European economies, Japan, the U. S., and even China. A recent VOX article tries to identify some of the possible reasons for this slow growth, i.e. present eight existing theories for what it calls ‘the big puzzle in economics today’. Although some of these theories contain a grain of truth, the discussion is marred by several erroneous premises and incorrectly identified causes. To quote Samuel Beckett’s characters, these theories are a fruitful exercise in ‘blaming on [our] boots the faults of [our] feet.’
First and foremost, analyses of economic growth, as we have seen before, are informed by aggregate measures, such as the GDP, that fail to capture the underlying relative evolution of the private economy – focusing instead on the bulk of government spending. In fact, a decrease in the GDP due to a decrease in government spending and taxation could mean an increase of the private economy, and of the welfare of producers and consumers alike. More importantly, however, the exclusive focus on figures usually diverts the conversation from the more important issue of economic institutions that are essential to material progress, such as private property, sound money, capital accumulation, and free markets. It is this neglect in the economic profession that currently leaves ‘experts’ baffled that ‘the economy isn’t delivering the kind of rising prosperity previous generations took for granted.’

This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on Aug 3, 2016.

AUGUST 3/RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER AS LONGS WILLING TO TAKE ON OUR CRIMINAL BANKERS/OPEN INTEREST ON COMEX GOLD ALSO RISES/GOLD AND SILVER WHACKED AS EXPECTED/ALL ITALIAN BANKS HALTED AND AR…

Gold:1356.10 down $8.30
Silver 20.44 down 22 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
Gold: 1358.20
Silver: 20.40
For the August gold contract month, we had a large 732 notices served upon for 73,200 ounces. The total number of notices filed so far for delivery: 9657 for 965,700 oz or tonnes or 30.037 tonnes
In silver we had 19 notices served upon for 95,000 oz. The total number of notices filed so far this month: 140 for 700,000 oz.
I wrote the following yesterday:
‘The way that silver lagged behind gold today, it sure looks like our criminal banks will try another raid tomorrow on our precious metals.’
The colluding crooked banks did not disappoint me with their raid on gold and silver today.
Let us have a look at the data for today
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 2,553 contracts UP to 224,540 AND AN ALL TIME NEW ALL TIME RECORD AS THE PRICE OF SILVER ROSE BY 20 CENTS WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING. In ounces, the OI is still represented by just over 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.123 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 160% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).
In silver we had 120 notices served upon for 600,000 oz
In gold, the total comex gold ROSE BY A HUGE 12,547 contracts as that the price of gold ROSE by $13.00 yesterday. The total gold OI stands at 582,211 contracts.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD
we had A BIG change, a deposit of 5.62 tonnes of gold inventory . /
Total gold inventory rest tonight at: 969.65 tonnes
SLV
we had no changes in the SLV, the SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
rests at 350.815 million oz.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on August 3, 2016.

The Boomerang Generation: Older Millennials are pushing increase of young adults living at home.

The latest homeownership rate figures show an interesting dichotomy to the housing market. While prices are up, the homeownership rate is down. And down significantly. The homeownership rate is now at levels last seen 50 years ago (the latest figures are the lowest in a generation – each update seems to bring a new low). This flies in the face of all the house humping that is being pushed out into the market. What we do know is that Millennials are simply not buying numbers in any ‘pent up demand’ form. In fact, a record number of Millennials are living at home with at least one parent. The data is interesting since the drive is being pushed by older Millennials, those that should be buying. Younger Millennials are likely in college accumulating back breaking levels of debt. There has been research showing that student debt is a hindrance to buying a home. So are we simply creating a new generation of boomerang kids?
The homeownership rate at another low
I know it bugs some people but the reality is, the homeownership rate is now at a 50 year record low. This flies in the face of the thesis that this move up in housing values is coming from some economic miracle. The volume of home sales is tepid at best and weak for new homes. What you have is the after effects of a manipulated market. But people are waking up to the game and you see this in our very unique political season.

This post was published at Doctor Housing Bubble on August 2, 2016.

Dear Millennials, We Found The Best Housing Markets For You! But, There’s A Catch…

For most millennial college grads the idea of buying a home right out of college is a bit far fetched. Many millennials have taken to moving back in with mom as we pointed out in a post entitled ““We All Work As A Team” – Millennials Explain How It’s Going Living ‘Rent-Free’ At Home.” The trend actually so pervasive that home builders are even designing new homes with a master suite in the basement for returning millennials to have their own little “safe space.” According to a local builder in the Chicago area:
“For a mere $35,000-plus, the plan can include a bedroom/bathroom suite in a finished basement to accommodate the kids who inevitably will be returning home to live.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 3, 2016.

Goldman Fined 0.1% Of Revenue For “Criminal Theft” Of Confidential Fed Information

Last October, we reported that “Wall Street Was Shocked As Feds Bring Criminal Case Against Goldman Banker Over Fed Leaks.” Briefly, because as we also reported several months later, nobody actually ended up going to prison for the infamous story of Goldman Sachs obtaining classified NY Fed documents as a result of the revolving, ended up with two workers getting slaps on the wrist in some modest penalties.
Today the story got its closure, when the Fed announced that Goldman Sachs has agreed to pay $36.3 million to settle allegations by the Federal Reserve that it obtained and used confidential regulatory materials from the central bank two years ago. This amounts to 0.1% of the firm’s 2015 revenue of $33.8 billion.
In levying the fine on Goldman Sachs, the Board found that the firm’s personnel improperly used confidential supervisory information of the Board in presentations to its clients and prospective clients in an effort to solicit business for the firm. Further, the Board found that from at least 2012, the firm did not have sufficient policies, procedures, or adequate employee training in place to ensure compliance with current laws prohibiting the unauthorized use or disclosure of confidential supervisory information. The Board’s order requires Goldman Sachs to put in place an enhanced program to ensure compliance with Board regulations concerning the receipt, use, and dissemination of confidential supervisory information.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 3, 2016.

Michael Shermer: The Importance Of Skepticism

The following video was published by ChrisMartensondotcom on Aug 3, 2016
As humans, the way we process and react to information is influenced by both the biology of our brains as well as our social and cultural norms. We’ve talked many times here at PeakProsperity.com about the influence — conscious and subconsious — that our beliefs exert on our actions. Our past podcasts on behavioral economics have delved into this in detail.
But just because we believe something, that doesn’t make it true. Which is why the scientific process is so important: when followed without bias, it enables us to understand reality as it truly is. And such accurate understanding of the facts allows us to make more useful decisions.
In this week’s podcast, Chris speaks with Michael Shermer, monthly columnist for Scientific American and founding publisher of Skeptic magazine, about the importance of cultivating a questioning mindset.