November 8 will mark the one year anniversary of one of the biggest political shocks in US history: the election of Donald Trump. Since that improbable victory, which so many experts had said would lead to a market crash, the S&P 500 has soared by 21% according to Goldman which calculates that the Trump rally so far ranks as the fourth-best 12-month gain following a presidential election since 1936, trailing only Bill Clinton (1996, 32%), John F. Kennedy (1960, 29%), and George H. W. Bush (1988, 23%).
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Of all sectors, the biggest beneficiaries from Trump’s election were Financials and Information Technology, which have powered the market with returns of 37% and 39%, respectively. Given its large weighting, Tech contributed 37% of the index gain. Alongside the relentless stretch of all time highs in the S&P, the rise in the index has also been characterized by the lowest volatility in 50 years and has seen just one month in which it did not record a gain (March, -0.04%) although on a total return basis, the S&P has been up every single month since the election, and as Deutsche Bank observed last wek, the S&P has seen a positive total return for all 10 months so far this year, the first time on record. Additionally, October marked the 12th positive month in succession, which equals the record set in 1949-1950 and 1935-1936. This means the S&P has not had a single month of negative total returns since Trump was elected almost exactly one year ago.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 4, 2017.
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