When it comes to the most influential investment bank in the world, Goldman Sachs, its 2018 outlook is borderline euphoric despite the bank’s own explicit admission that valuations have never been higher. In a tortured, goalseeked analysis which we discussed last week, the bank’s chief equity strategist David Kostin said that he expects a year of ‘rational exuberance’ catalyzed by the Trump tax cuts becoming law (some time in early 2018), leading to an upward revised year-end S&P price target of 2,850 (from 2,500 previously) and rising to 3,100 by 2020 (Kostin’s ‘irrationally exuberant’ parallel universe sees the S&P rising above 5,000 as the equity bubble repeats the events of the late 1990s – more here).
Naturally, the chief strategist concedes that all bets are off should Trump fail to pass tax reform (or even a far less comprehensive corporate tax cut program), and the S&P is likely to tumble to 2,400 from its current all time high level above 2,600 (Kostin did not have a S&P forecast for outer years which does not implement Trump tax cut, suggesting that Goldman’s clients will be extremely disappointed, and angry, should Goldman’s 80% odds of GOP tax reform passing prove just a “little” off ).
What is more interesting, is that even in discussions of the future that do not include Goldman’s assumptions of legislative reform, or its explicit S&P forecasts, the bank is especially sanguine, and does not anticipate a bear market as a result of 2017 being a ‘goldilocks year’ in which the world enjoyed coordinated, synchronized global growth courtesy of over $2 trillion in central bank liquidity injections but without the matching increase in inflation, which coupled with a perverse collapse in global volatility…
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Nov 26, 2017.