Video – ‘Gold Should Probably Be $5000’ – CME Chairman

Video – ‘Gold Should Probably Be $5000’ – CME Chairman Duffy
– Fed has caused ‘frustration’ and ‘confusion’ in market place
– ‘If you adjust for inflation, you should have gold somewhere around 2 to 3,000 per ounce’
– ‘If you look at what is going on the world, gold should probably be $5,000 to $6,000 per ounce’
– ‘Lot of us are so jaded about what is going on in the world, it is like yesterday’s newspaper in five minutes’
– ‘One day you will not be able to dismiss them and you will see a huge move in the precious metals’
– Gold ‘coins are probably of more value than anything else’ – CME President Duffy on Bloomberg in 2013

This post was published at Gold Core on July 13, 2017.

Bearish Bets on Gold, Silver Spike as Sentiment Turns Negative

Gold and silver prices fell to new multi-month lows versus a strengthening US Dollar at the start of European trade on Monday, hitting 4-month and 16-month Dollar lows respectively.
Priced in the Euro both precious metals fared worse still, dropping to their cheapest since February and March 2016.
With gold and silver hitting US Dollar lows of $1205 and $15.21 per ounce respectively at 8 AM London time, world-leading base-metals platform the London Metal Exchange this morning launched its& new LME precious contracts, aimed at “modernising the gold and silver markets” currently centered in the UK capital, and also set to compete with dominant US-based futures and options exchange the CME Group’s Comex products.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 07/10/2017.

CME Stays Silent on Cause of COMEX Silver Price Glitch

Silver futures prices on the COMEX futures trading platform briefly plummeted at approximately 7:06am Singapore time yesterday, with the price for the front month (most active) September silver contract falling from a US$16.06 quote down to a low of US$14.34 all within a 1 minute interval. The futures price then recovered nearly all of its losses in the subsequent 2-3 minute period. High to low, this COMEX silver futures contract saw its price fall by just over 10.7%, before rebounding nearly 11%.
During this time when the COMEX price crashed, there was nothing fundamentally happening in the wider financial markets, or indeed in the physical silver market, to justify these price gyrations in COMEX silver futures prices. Which all goes to show that the COMEX ‘paper’ futures silver prices is completely detached from the physical silver market, and that COMEX silver futures prices have no anchoring in the real silver market.
This price movement in the September 2017 silver futures contract (contract code SIU7 aka SIU17) can be seen in the below 1-minute tick candlestick chart from CME. Times in the chart are New York Time (NYT), which is 12 hours behind Singapore.

This post was published at Bullion Star on 7 Jul 2017.

Gartman: “The Time Has Come To Be Short Of Oil Once Again”

When we pointed out yesterday that “world-renowned commodity guru” Dennis Gartman remained bearish of oil, we quoted him as saying that “it has been our intention all along to await the opportunity to sell crude oil short on protracted rally and we are getting that rally as we write. We can be patient a while longer.” His patience lasted less than 24 hours, because one day later – as oil is on the cusp of extending its bullish run for a near record 9th consecutive day – Gartman this morning that “the time then has come to be short of crude oil once again.”
The section of note:
CRUDE OIL PRICES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE and have now risen for 8 or 9 days in a row, depending upon when one has marked the close. Going by the CME’s official closes, yesterday was the 8th day in row higher and the ‘bounce’ from the lows made two weeks ago amidst what was then panic liquidation has now taken the market to an almost equally over-bought, hyper-extended level to the upside. We have maintained that the ‘bounce’ would take crude back to The Box marking the 50-62% retracement in nearby WTI crude to somewhere between $47.00-$48.15 and for all intents that was satisfied yesterday when the high of $47.07. Note then the chart of nearby August WTI and note The Box.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 4, 2017.

Gold’s ‘Bearish Bulls’ Addressed, Now What?

[as to the article’s title, I don’t have a firm, paint-by-numbers answer, but I surely do have strategy… ] An NFTRH subscriber named Joe, who is a former fund guy and current chart cranking, idea generating maniac (said with admiration) came up with the term ‘bearish bulls’ recently, by which he meant that a whole lot of people were looking down in the gold sector, especially heading into this week as the dreaded ‘GDXJ rebalance’ and then next week’s FOMC loomed.
On the former, some bounce opportunities were created in oversold companies involved in the rebalance (with bearish bulls’ short covering providing the accelerant) and on the latter, I very much expect the Fed to raise the Funds Rate next week; and so does the futures market. From CME Group…

This post was published at GoldSeek on 9 June 2017.

Deutsche Bank Trader Admits To Rigging Precious Metals Markets

After months of “smoking guns” and conspiracy theory dismissals, a Singapore-based Deutsche Bank trader (at the center of fraud allegations) finally confirmed (by admitting guilt) what many have suspected – the biggest banks in the world have conspired to rig precious metals markets.
The Deutsche Bank trader, David Liew, pleaded guilty in federal court in Chicago to conspiring to spoof gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures, according to court papers. Bloomberg notes that spoofing involves traders placing orders that they never intend to fill, in an attempt to manipulate the price.
Following an introductory period that included orientation and training, LIEW was eventually assigned to the metals trading desk (which included base metals and precious metals trading) in approximately December 2009. During the Relevant Period, LIEW was employed by Bank A as a metals trader in the Asia-Pacific region, and his primary duties included precious metals market making and futures trading.
Between in or around December 2009 and in or around February 2012 (the “Relevant Period”), in the Northern District of Illinois, Eastem Division, and elsewhere, defendant DAVID LIEW did knowingly and intentionally conspire and agree with other precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) traders to: (a) knowingly execute, and attempt to execute, a scheme and artifice to defraud, and for obtaining money and property by means of materially false and fraudulent pretenses, representations, and promises, and in furtherance of the scheme and artifice to defraud, knowingly transmit, and cause to be transmitted, in interstate and foreign commerce, by means of wire communications, certain signs, signals and sounds, in violation of Title 18, United States Code, Section 1343, which scheme affected a financial institution; and (b) knowingly engage in trading, practice, and conduct, on and subject to the rules of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (“CME”), that was, was of the character of, and was commonly known to the trade as, spoofing, that is, bidding or offering with the intent to cancel the bid or offer before execution, by causing to be transmitted to the CME precious metals futures contract orders that LIEW and his coconspirators intended to cancel before execution and not as part of any legitimate, good-faith attempt to execute any part of the orders, in violation of Title 7, United States Code, Sections 6c(a)(5)(C) and 13(a)(2); all in violation of Title 18, United States Code, Section 371.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 2, 2017.

Hong Kong needs around-the-clock gold trading

The HKEX has presented proposals for two new gold futures products, to be launched as early as July, which would trade 16 hours a day. But brokers say that might prove too short.
“The gold market trades around the clock. This is why our customers are trading at CME Group (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) in the United States, which trades 23 hours a day,” said Alfred Yeung Ping-kwan, founding chairman of Glory Sky Group, which trades gold and stocks for investors in Hong Kong.
HKEX this month said it would start offering two new gold futures contracts — one in U.S. dollars the other in yuan — with physical delivery.

This post was published at South China Morning Post

Are Interest Rates Going Up in June 2017?

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of Money Morning. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
Thanks to the unemployment rate reaching a 10-year low in April, it’s likely that interest rates are going up in June 2017. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, a gauge of the market’s expectations, there’s now a 78.5% chance the Fed will raise interest rates at the June 13-14 FOMC meeting.
The Fed wants to raise rates at the June FOMC meeting so it can stay on track with the goal it set in December 2016. At the time, officials said they wanted a total of three interest rate hikes in 2017. Interest rates were raised in March, which means we need two more rate hikes before the end of the year.
There are only four FOMC meetings after June, so the Fed is running out of opportunities…

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on May 23, 2017.

Wall Street’s Big Fugly Secret Revealed

When the ship starts to sink, the rats begin to think only moments ahead. The big picture falls by the wayside. Surviving until tomorrow is all that matters. Next year is lifetimes away.
There are a few places in the world you can see this happening in real-time.
One such place is Wall Street.
Case in point:
The flash boys are hitting a dead-end. Bloomberg has just reported on a strange real estate buy in Chicago. A tiny group of stock traders purchased 31 acres of undeveloped land for $14 million, twice the going rate… just to plop down an antenna.
Looking at the paperwork, the antenna is owned by World Class Wireless, an affiliate of Jump Traders.
And here’s why…
Just across the street is the building for the CME Group – the world’s largest futures exchange.
‘The high tech microwave antenna,’ ex-Wall Streeter Dr. Fly writes in his iBankCoin blog, ‘is able to intercept data coming out of the CME before it makes its way to the east coast – creating an arb situation that last microseconds. It is the definition of cheating, rich, powerful people using their position to jimmy rig trades in their favor, all but guaranteed. It’s like having a time machine that can go a microsecond into the future and see prices and then trade off of the knowledge using very sophisticated high speed quants.’

This post was published at Laissez Faire on May 12, 2017.

Global Silver Production and Demand DROPS for the First Time in 14 Years

hat tip/Louis-smaulgld.com
For the first time since 2002 global silver mining/scrap production dropped. Silver is a direct reflection of electronics demand and manufacturing. Without silver our world would not be the same. The computer or phone you’re reading this on would not exist. The TV, wiring in your house, just for starters, would not work without silver. Silver is a great indication of how our economy – globally – is growing or contracting. It appears there was a contraction in 2016. Just remember, the economy is robust and growing, or so they say on TV.
What does it mean?
Well, according to what we have witnessed over the past three weeks with the rigged COMEX silver ‘price mechanism’ absolutely nothing. Could it be the criminals at the CME Group and bullion banks had an advanced copy of the Silver Institutes report and have been beating down silver in preparation of this news being released today? Anything’s possible.
Silver production declined 32.6 million ounces. This decrease was in both mine production and scrap. In the grand scheme of things, it’s not that much of a drop, but in a market the size of the silver market it is a significant amount. With just over 1 billion ounces coming to market in 2016 this represents a 0.32% of the overall market.
Global silver mine production in 2016 recorded its first decline since 2002, largely the result of lower by-product output from the lead/zinc and gold sectors. Coupled with less silver scrap supply to the market, which posted its lowest level since 1996, as well as a contraction in producer hedging, total silver supply decreased by 32.6 million ounces (Moz) in 2016. Source

This post was published at SilverSeek on May 11, 2017.

Ted Butler Quote of the Day 05-10-17

The data indicate that JP Morgan has been working overtime to take care of business and it has been remarkably successful in doing so. Just three weeks ago the silver market structure was extremely bearish, the most bearish it had been in history. Today, JP Morgan is in its best position ever for a silver price moonshot. Perhaps the crooks at JP Morgan and the CME Group can manipulate silver prices even lower to reduce JPM’s paper short position even more, but it seems like we are at the point of picking up nickels and dimes in front of a steamroller in waiting out the eventual silver price explosion.

And make no mistake, this mostly concerns silver, with gold and other commodities playing a secondary role. I only detect JP Morgan’s massive presence in silver. If the bank holds significant physical long or paper short positions in other commodities, it doesn’t show up in the data I monitor – at least, nowhere near as clearly as it shows up in silver.

At some point — and hopefully very soon, JP Morgan will likely morph from being the great silver price suppressor to the great silver price booster. Remarkably, JPM has already accomplished the hard part – coming to buy and own 500 million net silver oz (600 million physical oz minus 100 million oz of paper shorts) over the past six years. All it has to do to cause the price to rocket higher and benefit itself more than anyone else is, quite literally, nothing. JP Morgan not adding to paper short positions on the next rally will allow silver prices to float and soar higher without limitation. And even though JPMorgan has always added to silver short positions in the past, considering just how advantageous a big rally would be to the bank at this time, the only sane bet is that JPM will let silver fly

A small excerpt from Ted Butler’s subscription letter on 06 May 2017.

More precious metals news & information available at
Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Digest.
 

Ted Butler: A Secret and Illegal Agreement

There has to be a good reason why the CFTC won’t openly address the clear evidence of a COMEX silver manipulation, as well as why JP Morgan and the CME Group would turn away from direct accusations of wrongdoing that would constitute slander and libel if such allegations weren’t true. Something has to be holding the CFTC back from addressing that which should and must be addressed. Actually, I think there are two reasons.
One, as I’ve long held concerns the agency rejecting any thought of a COMEX silver manipulation early on, more than 30 years ago when I first alleged such a manipulation. Basically, it’s nothing more than a continued doubling down of manipulation denial because how does a government agency openly admit to failing in its prime mission for decades despite increasingly clear evidence of such failure? This denial doubling down is reflected in the unusual circumstance of the agency being forced to argue with every single point I ever raised about silver. But it’s simply not possible that everything I say about silver to be 100% incorrect. At a minimum, that would be insulting to those who find value in what I write. Besides, I rely, almost exclusively, on the agency’s own data to make the case and it almost ends up with the agency arguing against its own data.
But there’s an even more compelling reason for the CFTC to deny allegations of a silver manipulation that burst onto the scene nine years ago – the takeover of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan in March 2008. As the public record indicates, this was at the start of the financial crisis and came about with the U.S. Treasury Dept. and the Federal Reserve requesting JP Morgan’s assistance in rescuing Bear Stearns. You can be sure that since JP Morgan was being asked by the U.S. Government to, in effect, do it and the country a favor in taking over Bear that the bank would, in return, solicit and arrange for as many protections for JPM as possible. JPMorgan’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, has since lamented that he ever agreed to the takeover, but when it came to subsequent dealings in COMEX silver over the next nine years, it’s hard for me to see how it could have turned out any better than it did for the bank.
What no one knows is what private guarantees and assurances were granted to JP Morgan that have left it immune from the CFTC moving against JPM’s clearly illegal activities in silver over the past nine years. There’s no other way to explain how the crooks at JP Morgan continue to manipulate and fraudulently abuse the silver market for its own gain. Undoubtedly, JP Morgan was given a free get-out-of-jail card from future violations of commodity law when it came to it agreeing to acquire Bear Stearns. But after nine years of JP Morgan dominating the silver market in every way possible, was JPM’s immunity from having to behave legally in silver granted in perpetuity?

This post was published at Silverseek

Risk Parity Lashes Out At Paul Tudor Jones’ Apocalyptic Forecast

In addition to Paul Tudor Jones making headlines overnight with his comments during a closed-door GSAM session, in which he warned that Yellen “should be terrified” by some of the market’s key valuation metrics, he went so far as to predict what trading strategist would blow up the market and cause the next crash when volatility returns.
‘Risk parity,’ Jones told the Goldman audience, ‘will be the hammer on the downside.’
PTJ is not the first one to blame risk-parity funds of crashing the market: Both Omega’s Leon Cooperman and especially JPM’s Marco Kolanovic famously repeated on several occasions that the greatest “crash catalyst” facing the market is, you guessed it, risk-parity.
The two have good reasons to be skeptical: as we first reported in September of 2015, it was a risk-parity meltdown in mid-August that catalyzed the ETFlash crash of August 24, 2015, sending the VIX so high, the CME admitted the calculation had malfunctioned and the VIX was offline for nearly an hour. This is what Bank of America reported at the time:
The volatile sell-off in global equities from Thursday August 20th through Tuesday August 24th, alongside a relatively muted diversification benefit from fixed income, led many risk parity funds to suffer a sudden and sharp drawdown over the four-day period (Chart 1). The performance drawdown and subsequent spike in the volatility of risk parity funds likely triggered a significant deleveraging in their assets.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 21, 2017.

A Stock Market Crash Is More Likely as Interest Rates Rise

A stock market crash could be on the horizon as the U. S. Federal Reserve is moving forward with interest rate hikes. During the March FOMC meeting, the Fed hiked rates for the third time in two years.
And according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are expecting at least two more interest rate hikes this year. That will push interest rates above 1% for the first time in nearly a decade.
But the Fed’s actions are coming at a precarious time for the stock market, which has been on a record-breaking run since Donald Trump won the presidency on Nov. 8, 2016. The Dow Jones has shattered the 20,000 and 21,000 levels and notched a record 12 straight days of all-time high closes to end February.
While the soaring highs have undoubtedly been great for investors, many are also worried those highs coupled with ballooning interest rates could lead to a stock market crash in 2017.
No one can ever predict the timing of a stock market crash with certainty. Luckily, there are historical patterns that we can look at to anticipate when the next stock market crash is coming.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on March 24, 2017.

Here Are The Five Main Things To Watch At Today’s Fed Meeting

While it is now virtually assured (odds are 95% according to the CME) that the Fed will announce a 25 bps rate hike today following an unprecedented attempt to reprice the Fed Funds market over the past month by Fed speakers – recall that as recently as three weeks ago, nobody expected a March move by the FOMC – what traders and analysts will be focused on today are hints for the future of the Fed’s rate hike moves. Indeed, the Fed’s “dot plot” will come under intense scrutiny after the BLS earlier today confirmed that the Fed may be well behind the curve when it comes to rising prices, after headline CPI printed at a blistering 2.7%, the highest rate in 5 years, with even the tamer core inflation rising 2.2%, above the Fed’s target of 2.0%.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Mar 15, 2017.

More Bad News for the LBMA Silver Price, but an Opportunity for Overhaul

On Friday 3 March 2017, in a surprise announcement with implications for the global silver market, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) informed its members that the current administrator and calculation agent of its recently launched LBMA Silver Price auction, Thomson Reuters and the CME Group respectively, will be pulling out of providing their services to the problematic London-based silver price benchmark within the near future. Thomson Reuters and the CME Group issued identical statements.
This is surprising because Thomson Reuters and the CME Group only began administering / calculating the LBMA Silver Price auction two and a half years ago in August 2014, when, amid much hubris, the duo were awarded the contract after a long-drawn-out and high-profile tender process. Notably, the Thomson Reuters / CME contract with the LBMA was for a 5-year term running up to and into 2019. So the duo are now pulling out mid-way through a contract cycle.
More surprisingly, in their statements of 3 March, the LBMA / Thomson Reuters and CME allude to the European Benchmark Regulation being in some way responsible for the hasty departure. However, given that the units of CME and Thomson Reuters that are parties to the LBMA contract are their specialist benchmark units ‘CME Benchmark Europe Limited’ and ‘Thomson Reuters Benchmark Services Limited’, which specialise in administering and calculating benchmarks, this excuse makes no sense.
In essence, this development is an embarrassment for all concerned and could lead to further reputational damage for the parties involved. It also now re-focuses market scrutiny on an area which the LBMA and its associates could well wish to forget, i.e. the former London silver fixing run by the infamous London Silver Market Fixing Limited, a company which itself is still one of the defendants, along with HSBC, Bank of Nova Scotia and Deutsche Bank, in a live New York class action suit that is scrutinizing the manipulation of the London silver price.
LBMA Silver Price: A Regulated Benchmark
Note that the LBMA Silver Price benchmark is now a ‘Regulated Benchmark’ under United Kingdom HM Treasury Legislation, and is one of 8 financial market benchmarks regulated by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). So this is not some backwater obscure benchmark that we are talking about here. This is a benchmark with far-reaching effects on the global precious metals markets and a sister of the LBMA Gold Price benchmark. The reference prices from these benchmarks are used from everything from valuing Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) to being the price reference points in ISDA swaps and bullion bank structured products such as barrier options.
According to the LBMA’s usual public relations mouthpiece Reuters, which relayed the news to the broader market on 3 March, the LBMA will be:
‘looking to identify a new provider in the summer, and have the new platform up and running in the autumn’
This dramatic ‘exit stage right’ by Thomson Reuters and the CME Group is a far cry from their initial and continued corporate spin of being committed to the silver price auction, which they claimed both at auction launch in August 2014, and also as recently as 2016 when they grovelled with promises of process improvement and wider participation in the auction in the wake of the silver price manipulation fiasco in the LBMA Silver Price auction on 28 January 2016.

This post was published at Bullion Star on 7 Mar 2017.

MARCH 6/ANDRE MAGUIRE STATES THAT THE LBMA IS HAVING SEVERE TROUBLE LOCATING GOLD TO FULFILL CONTRACTS/GOLD DOWN $1.00 AND SILVER UP 2 CENTS BIT DOWN FROM FRIDAY’S ACCESS PRICING/THIS IS A BIG ST…

Gold at (1:30 am est) $1224.50 down $1.00
silver was : $17.72: UP 2 CENTS (unchanged)
Access market prices:
Gold: $1226.30
Silver: $17.78
For comex gold:
MARCH/
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR MARCH CONTRACT MONTH: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ. TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 45 FOR 4500 OZ (0.1399 TONNES)
For silver:
For silver: MARCH
343 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR 1,715,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1763 for 8,815,000
Late FRIDAY night after receiving the preliminary data for Monday, I wanted to think about the data overnight as well as to see if this fits with Ted Butler’s assertion of basically collusion with some of the Hedge Funds (managed money)
If you have not read Ted Butler yet, I urge you to read it (in last night’s commentary) and then study today’s OI data.
One could see that the original plan of the bankers was to raid gold and silver with the object to get the gold down to an OI level of 390,000 contracts and silver down to the 165,000 area. They have done this quite a few occasions starting in 2011 and continuing to this year.
I now believe Butler’s assertion is correct in that the hedge funds are no longer playing the game especially in silver. He correctly portrays the hedge funds as as the Washington Generals losing every time with the Harlem Globetrotters the victors all the time.
Now everything makes sense:
the ‘salary’ for each ‘Washington General’ hedge fund was paid in cash settlements. That is how these hedge funds would continually lose for 5 years and still play in the game.
It also explains, a huge obliteration of open interest on an active contract as we head into first day notice.
the boys were being paid for their work and they then reload with fiat bonus and play again.
It also explains how the amount standing of each month lowers as the month proceeds. Each of the collusive players are waiting to be paid.
However, somehow, the hedge funds (Washington Generals) did not want to play anymore with the bankers (Harlem Globetrotters). The hedge funds decided not to sell on any huge whack. This is why Thursday’s OI reading on silver hardly moved despite a 74 cent drop in price. The huge follow through yesterday orchestrated by the bankers (Harlem) also ended in failure. That is why at 1:00 o’clock they could see that the OI hardly budged so they raced as fast as they could to cover. The price of silver instead of being down by 8 cents, it rallied to unchanged at comex closing time and then up 19 cents upon access closing time.
We are not seeing the same game yet in gold but it may be in its infancy. However in silver, something is scaring our Washington Generals to not play the silver fraud any more.(lack of silver maybe?)
Let us have a look at the data for today

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on March 6, 2017.

Why the Fed Needs to Raise Rates

I have warned that rates will rise BECAUSE the Federal Reserve will be criticized if they fail to do so when they are faced with a stock market that is rising. However, while one by one, several Fed officials have all signaled in recent days that the Fed is ready to resume raising interest rates as soon as this month, the real crisis for the Fed will be raising rates will strength the dollar and put even more pressure on Europe and emerging markets. Hence, the 64 billion dollar question is will the Fed abandon international policy objectives for domestic?
Janet Yellen speaks today in Chicago on the topic of the Fed’s economic outlook. The pundits will scan ever possible word for any hint whatsoever of how likely the central bank is to raise its key short-term rate after it next meets March 14-15, 2017. Traders in futures markets have put the probability of a rate hike at 75%, according to data tracked by the CME Group. Last week the odds were just 50/50. With the rally in the share market this week, many are now fearing a rate hike.

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Mar 3, 2017.