European shares fell modestly, Asian equities declined for the first day in three, and US equity futures were unchanged before the December U. S. nonfarm payrolls report. China’s offshore yuan fell the most in a year to pare a record weekly rally, while Mexico’s peso climbed after the central bank sold dollars. Oil was trading lower in early trading.
The main economic event on the financial calendar is today’s 8:30am ET December payroll report. The market consensus for today’s print is 178k which is in line with the 178k in November. It’s worth noting that there’s a reasonable range between economists though with the low forecast at 125k and the high forecast at 221k. DB’s Joe LaVorgna is at the lower end of the range and has pegged a 150k print which is more or less where yesterday’s ADP private employment survey came in at for December (153k vs. 175k expected). What might be more interesting though is whether or not the drop in the unemployment rate is sustained. As a reminder the U3 rate fell to 4.6% in November and the lowest since 2007 from 4.9% in October. The drop has been a focus for Fed officials with more talking about an undershooting of the longer run rate so it is worth watching. As always also keep an eye on average hourly earnings. The consensus is for a 0.3% mom rise in December which would have the effect of pushing the annual rate up to 2.8% yoy from 2.5%.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jan 6, 2017.
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