6/1/17: Russian markets briefing transcript: November 2016

Jon Blogosphere, Economy, Geopolitics, Market Commentary, Politics

This is a transcript of my advisory 4Q 2016 conference call on Russian economy from November for Western institutional investors and advisory companies.
GEOPOLITICAL REBALANCING
US Election
Uncertain outcome of the election implies that outlook for Highly volatile environment remains Short term pause in September-November signaled lack of understanding / lack of certainty, not expectation of rapid de-escalation and are likely to be followed by re-amplification of tensions European dimension is now at play, yet and unlikely to become such, especially if economic conditions in the Euro area improve Key markers to watch: France – 23 April 2017 Presidential election Germany – remains a key driver for strong stance against Russia – Federal Election in 2017 (latest date possible is end of October) Holland – Dutch General Election, March 2017 Italy Referendum and post-Referendum political fight Eastern European position of influence in NATO is weakening, so we can expect more amplification of pressure at the EU level British position in the EU is weakened by Brexit that also deflects UK attention away from Russia

This post was published at True Economics on Friday, January 6, 2017.