‘No Recession, But…’

I am personally not yet convinced an ultimate bull market top is in despite the obvious similarities of the recent interim top to 2007 [the first sign in this regard would be a loss of the October 2014 and August 2015 lows]. It could also be a 1998 clone, as we have noted by chart similarities and by global financial similarities (China/Asia). However, in 2007 the stock market did a good job of forecasting the coming ‘Great Recession’ (a sanitized way of saying ‘impulsive unwinding of leverage’). Here is what economists think today (ref. Bloomberg article):2018 it is, according to a majority of buttoned down dart throwers.
What were they saying in December 2007? Let’s take a look, also from Bloomberg…
(Dec. 17, 2007): No Recession, But… ‘The bottom line looks like this: The economists project, on average, that the economy will grow 2.1% from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the end of 2008, vs. 2.6% in 2007. Only two of the forecasters expect a recession, although it might feel like one if there’s sluggish growth over the next couple of quarters, as many predict. Almost all think the risk of a downturn has risen substantially in recent months.’

This post was published at GoldSeek on 14 September 2015.