Who could have seen that coming!!??? Apparently Draghi could not clarify exactly what he meant in 90 minutes, 3 hours ago!!!!
*ECB SAID TO PREPARE BROAD-BASED QE PACKAGE FOR JANUARY MEETING So, despite telling us earlier than not January and not ready, we get this spurious headline just as EURUSD crossed 1.2450… Fun-durr-mentals indeed.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/04/2014.
With its bonds trading at 50% of face value, CDS implying an 84% chance of default, a black-market FX rate that signals massive devaluation is likely, and a teetering-on-the-brink of social unrest population entirely dependent on President Maduro’s generosity (and the military junta), it is perhaps not entirely surprising that they are trying any trick in the book to bolster reserves. The Venezuelan Central Bank issued a statement today (akin to Europe’s hookers-and-blow GDP adjustment) that enables them tocount a whole new set of ‘assets’ as potential international reserves including “stones” and “precious metals held in their vaults on behalf of foreign financial institutions.” Hey presto… new reserves.
Risk is rising…
This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/04/2014.
Back in March the ECB predicted 2014 inflation would be 1.0%, with prices rising to 1.3% in 2015. Since then one can say that deflation has once again taken hold, and following two consecutive cuts to 2014 inflation expectations, moments ago Draghi just released the ECB’s latest set of inflation expectations. In a nutshell: in just 9 short months, the ECB’s current year inflation forecast has been cut in half, with 2015 inflation also down nearly 50%, from 1.3% to 0.7%.
Of course, now that deflation is apparently stimulative according to the global Keynesian think tank, because plunging oil prices are supposedly a “tax cut” equivalent and will “force consumers to spend more”, this is good news right?
This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/04/2014.
The churches of America continue to fail in their primary duty to their members, namely, to preach the word of God for the purpose of saving souls. There are the continuing assaults upon our churches and there are new threats to the viability of the Christian churches in America as well. There is only one inescapable conclusion, the Christian spirit in America’s churches is largely dead on arrival. It is highly likely that your pastor is bought and paid for by DHS or the EPA or some other alphabet soup federal agency. The message of the Bible has been subverted to promote the message of the government.
Maryland County Pushes Churches to Preach Environmentalism In Exchange for Tax Credits Looking into he background of this tax revealed that the EPA demanded a tax at the state level to cover the cost of pollution ‘run off’ into Chesapeake Bay. The EPA leaned heavily on the States and the State began to lean on the Church. This led to a ‘storm management fee,’ passed by the state legislature in 2012, which will now go into effect following a decree from Democrat Governor Martin O’Malley.
Maryland has subsequently ordered its 10 largest counties to raise almost $15 billion dollars to pay for mitigating ‘run-offs’.
Churches in a Maryland county are being offered tax breaks for incorporating environmentalism into their sermons. According to the Washington Post, 30 pastors have started preaching ‘green’ ministries to avoid extra taxes. This is all EPA driven and controlling the message of the church has long the goal of the government.
This post was published at The Common Sense Show on December 4, 2014.
Despite the worst sentiment towards gold we have seen since the brief 30% price fall in 2008, gold continues to eke out gains in all major currencies. So far in 2014, gold is 14.3%, 12.3%, 5.8% and 0.4% higher in japanese yen, euros, sterling and dollars respectively (see chart).
Gold is again acting as a hedge against currency weakness and the ongoing devaluation of currencies as stealth currency wars continue. Overnight, gold rose to over EUR 986/oz and looks set to challenge the significant and important level of resistance that is EUR 1,000/oz due to euro weakness and concerns that Draghi may launch the ECB money printing ‘Bazooka’ in 2015.
There is a perception that gold has performed badly recently and in 2014 due to the recent dip in gold prices in dollar terms and despite the fact that gold is actually higher even in dollar terms in 2014.
This post was published at Gold Core on 4 December 2014.
Longtime Turdites will recall that Paul Mylchreest is an excellent metals analyst. His latest report explores in great detail the ongoing link between the price of gold and the value of the Japanese yen which, as you know, is a theme we’ve already been following here for months.
This is a lengthy and detailed summary and it is chock full of terrific information about the gold–yen link, the global gold “market” and GOFO/backwardation. Please take the time to scroll through it and thank you to Paul for sharing it!
TF
This post was published at TF Metals Report on December 4, 2014.
Say what you want about Bill Gross, but the legendary bond investor is absolutely spot on in the following paragraph from his latest, December, investment outlook:
How could they? How could policymakers have allowed so much debt to be created in the first place, and then failed to regulate their own system accordingly? How could they have thought that money printing and debt creation could create wealth instead of just more and more debt? How could fiscal authorities have stood by and attempted to balance budgets as opposed to borrowing cheaply and investing the proceeds in infrastructure and innovation? It has been a nursery rhyme experience for sure, but more than likely without a fairytale ending.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/04/2014.
[edit] Mr. Gold’s last paragraph is the tell on his bias, as he is unwilling or unable to conceal the contempt he has for people who were absolutely right for 10 years and are now suffering a bear market, both to their asset of choice and in sound monetary thinking.
‘The vastly improved fiscal situation may last only a few years, but it’s a big plus for U. S. markets and the U. S. dollar – and another nail in the coffin for the gold bugs and doom-and-gloomers who can add one more item to the long list of things they got really, really wrong.’
Why the US’s Debt is No Longer Such a Big Deal -Howard Gold writing at MarketWatch
Before we find out about Howard’s thoughts on the debt situation (I am only going by the headline right now) let’s divide the GDP by the Federal Debt. This is a view of a deluded nation going right down a sink hole in service to greed and denial.
Now let’s see what Mr. Gold (not the discredited and now strangely silent ‘gold bug’ Mr. Gold) has to say in regard to ‘the US debt is no longer such a big deal’.
Shhh! Don’t tell anyone, but over the past couple of years, the U. S.’s debt burden, the big issue that swept Tea Party-led Republicans into control of the House of Representatives in 2010, has quietly improved.
Obligatory political baiting opens the article. Politics and financial markets never mix. Major political parties argue over certain details as favors their constituencies, but they are the two heads on the same freakish animal.
This post was published at GoldSeek on 4 December 2014.
ECB head Mario Draghi made it clear where the real battle is taking place in the world this morning. When asked what form QE would take, his response was to the point… “On what sorts of assets should be included in QE… we discussed all assets BUT gold” and gold dropped, right on cue.
Not really sure which assets we discussed but definitley not gold!!
This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/04/2014.
Submitted by Erico Matia Tavares of Sinclar & Co.,
It has been centuries since the Portuguese last dominated the world’s seaways, but in glancing over recent headlines one would be forgiven for thinking that their pirates are still running around.
With the economy still reeling from the effects of the devastating financial crisis in 2010-11, Portugal has been rocked by a series of corruption scandals which go to the very core of the political and financial establishments.
None other than Jos Socrates, Prime Minister from 2005 to 2011, is being held in custody in connection with money laundering, tax evasion and corruption charges; the figures involved are rumored to be in the many millions. A number of top officials of the current government have also been detained on graft charges targeting wealthy foreigners – mostly Chinese – seeking Portuguese residency under the “golden visa” scheme.
Earlier in the year, Grupo Esprito Santo, a significant conglomerate that owned a large stake in BES, one of Portugal’s largest private banks, failed spectacularly, after dodgy accounting practices and money transfers supposedly intended to fool regulators and investors could no longer remain hidden. Here we have the blue blood of Portuguese finance, with close ties to major domestic and international corporations and governments. The resulting losses are in the many billions.
Over the years there have been recurring allegations of corruption and unsavory dealings in the press, but these have been largely inconsequential. For one, Portugal is still perceived as being ‘cleaner’ than its Southern European peers: according to Transparency International, in 2013 it ranked #33 “cleanest” country in the world, compared to Spain at #40, Italy at #69 and Greece at #80.
Which is why these latest scandals are particularly shocking. Judicial actions of this nature being taken against very high profile political and business figures are extremely rare, even unprecedented in Portugal’s contemporary history.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/04/2014.
[Speculative] position limits were fought by JPMorgan over the past five years because such an enactment would have been a disaster for the bank, which held a massively concentrated short position in COMEX silver during this time. If JPMorgan was forced to buy back its silver short positions in excess of proposed limits, or even if the bank were prevented from adding new shorts to cap the price, the price of silver would have soared. Now that JPMorgan no longer holds a massive concentrated short position in COMEX silver—as I hope I have conveyed—the enactment of position limits could very well benefit the bank (if I am anywhere near close on how much physical silver the bank has acquired).
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More precious metals news & information available at Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Daily. |
Any revision in gold import duty is unlikely to take place before the Budget and there is no proposal as of now to reduce the 10 per duty, a finance ministry official said.
‘On import duty (on gold) there is no decision at the moment. Import duty whatever has to be done will form part of the Budget. At the moment there is no proposal to reduce import duty on gold,’ the official said.
There has been widespread expectations of reduction in customs duty on gold due to the improved current account deficit situation. The Commerce Ministry has also been pitching for a cut in import duty on the precious metal.
General Budget for the coming fiscal year is generally announced on the last working day of February.
Earlier this week, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan had also said that there were some requests to change the duty structure (on gold) and that government will view and take a decision on it.
This post was published at TruthinGold on December 4, 2014.
In spite of a sustained rally in home prices, the October Black Knight Financial Services Mortgage Monitor shows Four million borrowers currently underwater.
Highlights
Black Knight found that even though underwater mortgages are now less than 8% of all mortgages, there are still roughly 4 million borrowers in negative equity positions, who are, on average, $39,000 underwater. Underwater borrowers, representing nearly $800 billion in unpaid balances and $157 billion in negative equity, are 10X more likely to be delinquent than those with positive equity. Underwater borrowers exhibit a 40% delinquency rate, as compared to just 4% for borrowers with equity For those with combined LTVs of 150% or greater, more than 3 out of every four (77%) are delinquent There are approximately 1.3 million underwater GSE-backed mortgages representing an aggregate $39 billion in negative equity; of these, 365K are delinquent Much-discussed principal reductions on delinquent underwater borrowers would require up to $89 billion in write-downs; the GSE share alone would require up to $18 billion Black Knight found some relaxation in credit requirements for refinance originations (though these are still high by historical standards) Weighted average credit scores for GSE refinances have come down to 742 from a high of 766 in late 2011, while credit requirements on GSE purchase mortgages have remained tight since 2009 GNMA backed originations have also seen some relaxation in refi credit requirements, with weighted average credit scores down from 727 at the end of 2012 to 701 (which is still significantly higher than 2005’s average of 628) Looking at the refi market as a whole, Black Knight found that borrowers with 740 credit scores make up 55% of 2014 refi market, as compared to just 29% in 2005 Sustained Improvement in Negative Equity
This post was published at Global Economic Analysis on Thursday, December 04, 2014.
With a disappointingly slow asset accumulation in the ABS and Covered Bond purchase schemes, Draghi better “get back to work” soon or the market (EURUSD down 17 handles on nothing but promises) will lose its patience. As we noted earlier, Weidmann’s hints suggest the oil-price-slowdown is providing cover for monetary policy and obscuring the ‘bad’ deflation. Crucially Draghi will need to stress the ‘need’ for action and the ‘unanimity’ of that decision to keep the algos buying…
This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/04/2014.
I am not sure what to make of the U. S. Dollar (DXY) vs Spot GOLD relationship recently, because it has certainly been counter-intuitive, not to mention counter-historical.
It is unusual to have such a strong Dollar concurrent with such a resilient Gold price.
That said, the relationship is not counter-seasonal, however.
When the Dollar has a pronounced direction heading into Dec, it usually continues into year end, while Dec usually resides within the seasonally-strong Nov-Mar time period for GOLD.
This post was published at Gold-Eagle on December 3, 2014.
After last week’s jerk higher (now revised even higher to 314k), this week saw a modest 17k drop to 297k (magically back below the 300k Maginot Line) but still missed expectations. Obviously, initial claims still linger near 14 year lows but the smoother 4 week average rose around 5k to 299k. Continuing claims rose 39k and has hovered at these decade-long lows for 6 weeks now – though unadjusted Regular State (ex) employees claiming UI benefits jumped 125K from 2.065 million to 2.190 million.. It appears the trend of improvement has ended/stabilized.
Charts: Bloomberg
This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/04/2014.
But, but, but all the clever talking heads said he had to do it now…
*DRAGHI SAYS ECB TO REASSESS CURRENT STIMULUS NEXT QUARTER Though the decision was unanimous, this is not what the market wanted to hear – Draghi kicking the can with no indication they are any closer to getting Zee Germans on board with direct monetization of European fiscal irresponsibility.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on 12/04/2014.
The volume of vaulted platinum holdings held confidentially is declining, the recently launched World Platinum Investment Council said on Wednesday.
The council, which has just published its first quarterly analysis of global platinum supply and demand fundamentals, said the platinum shortfalls of the last two years had reduced above-ground stocks from a level of 4.14-million ounces at the end of 2012.
The bringing to the market of these secret stocks has been a key factor in holding down the platinum price during the prolonged five-month strike on South Africa’s platinum belt when supply was significantly cut.
The council’s maiden publication put these above-ground stocks – on which information is traditionally hard to come by – at 2.56-million ounces, 1.58-million ounces down on the 2012 position, which adds a new transparency.
This post was published at Mining Weekly
The platinum market is expected to see a shortfall of 885,000 ounces this year, a report by the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) estimated on Wednesday, as a strike in major producer South Africa reduced supply.
The above-ground stocks of the metal that have helped cushion prices from the impact of the tightening market are expected to have declined significantly. Platinum prices are down 11 percent this year despite a third straight yearly deficit.
The WPIC, which commissioned the report from consultancy SFA (Oxford), said it sees above-ground platinum inventories, excluding exchange-traded funds, metal held by exchanges, and industry working inventories, at 2.56 million ounces at year-end. That is down from 3.445 million ounces at the end of last year, it said.
This post was published at Mineweb
Maybe he would be classified as a sore loser but Egon von Greyerz, of Matterhorn Asset Management, and one of the leading lights behind the unsuccessful Yes campaign in the recent Swiss Gold Referendum, may have a point regarding the tactics used by the Swiss establishment to secure victory.
“We were beaten squarely, but not fairly,” he commented at Mines & Money London on Tuesday.
He pointed to examples of the unprecedented campaign by the Swiss National Bank (the country’s central bank) to derail the Yes campaign. How the leader of the Swiss Gold initiative was prevented from appearing in a debate on the referendum on Swiss TV and that the Yes campaign was blocked from receiving donations via PayPal. This was quite apart from appearances by the head of the Swiss National Bank in the Swiss media almost daily to generate opposition to the proposal by someone who normally shuns any kind of publicity.
This post was published at Mineweb
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