This post was published at Arcadia Economics
As I am known to do, I will peruse articles on the web to find some interesting tidbits. And, I found one in one of Lance Robert’s recent posts.
Within this article, he cited a Doug Kass note, which stated:
‘Despite many who are suggesting this has been a ‘rational rise’ due to strong earnings growth, that is simply not the case as shown below . . . Since 2014, the stock market has risen (capital appreciation only) by 35% while reported earnings growth has risen by a whopping 2%. A 2% growth in earnings over the last 3-years hardly justifies a 33% premium over earnings.
Of course, even reported earnings is somewhat misleading due to the heavy use of share repurchases to artificially inflate reported earnings on a per share basis. However, corporate profits after tax give us a better idea of what profits actually were since that is the amount left over after those taxes were paid.
“Again we see the same picture of a 32% premium over a 3% cumulative growth in corporate profits after tax. There is little justification to be found to support the idea that earnings growth is the main driver behind asset prices currently.
We can also use the data above to construct a valuation measure of price divided by corporate profits after tax. As with all valuation measures we have discussed as of late, and forward return expectations from such levels, the P/CPATAX ratio just hit the second highest level in history.”
So, what is Lance’s conclusion from the Kass note? ‘The reality, of course, is that investors are simply chasing asset prices higher as exuberance overtakes logic.’
And, all of this leaves me scratching my head.
This post was published at GoldSeek on 11 December 2017.
The world silver market may be on the verge of a major supply crunch.
Two-thirds of the top silver miners have suffered significant production decreases in 2017, according to information released by World Metal Statistics.
Through the first eight months of this year, silver production in Chile has dropped 20%. Austrailian production has fallen by 19%. Silver production in Mexico is down 2%. Peru has seen a 1% production decline. And China has had the biggest drop in mine output, according to the report, falling by a whopping 25%.
A report by SRSrocco identifies several factors driving silver mine production lower.
I believe global silver production will take a big hit this year due to several factors including, falling ore grades, mine closures, and strikes at various projects.’
The report highlights some of the production woes for major producers. Overall, production at top primary silver miners has fallen 9 million ounces so far in 2017 compared to the same period last year.
This post was published at Schiffgold on NOVEMBER 15, 2017.
It has been a rough year for many primary silver miners as two-thirds have suffered declines in production. Also, many high ranking silver producing countries are also experiencing a pronounced reduction in their domestic silver mine supply. According to the data put out by World Metal Statistics, Chile’s silver production is down 20% in the first eight months of the year, while Australia is down 19%, Mexico declined 2% and Peru by 1%.
The Silver Institute will be releasing their 2017 Silver Interim Report shortly which will provide an update on current silver production and forecasts for the remainder of the year. However, I believe global silver production will take a hit this year due to several factors including, falling ore grades, mine closures, and strikes at various projects.
For example, Tahoe Resources was forced to shut down its Guatemalan Escobal Mine in July due to a temporary suspension of its operating license by the country’s Supreme Court. However, even after the Guatemalan Supreme Court reinstated Tahoe Resources Escobal Mine’s license in early September, an ongoing road blockade has hampered the ability of the project to continue mining. Regardless, Tahoe’s silver production declined a stunning 6.7 million oz Q1-Q3 2017 versus the same period last year.
This post was published at SRSrocco Report on NOVEMBER 13, 2017.
If you’ve perused the mainstream headlines today, you’ve probably read that overall gold demand fell to an 8-year low last quarter. This was primarily due to a steep drop in inflows into gold ETFs compared to last year, and sagging jewelry demand in India after the implementation of a new tax scheme. But despite the gloomy-sounding headlines, investors are still buying physical gold.
Investment demand for physical gold grew in the third quarter by 17%, according to a report released by the World Gold Council.
Global gold bar and coin sales grew 17% year-on-year in Q3, totaling 222.3 tons. Chinese investment drove demand for physical gold. Bar and coin sales increased 57% to 64.3 tons in the Asian nation. This continues a year-long trend. So far in 2017, gold bar and coin demand in China is at the second-highest level on record.
Two themes have underpinned China’s market this year. First, from a macroeconomic perspective, fears over a potential depreciation of the yuan and the specter of rising inflation continued to hang over investors. Second, there are relatively few alternative investment opportunities. The Chinese government, for example, imposed restrictions on the real estate market earlier this year. Gold, as a globally traded asset and a natural hedge against currency weakness, has benefited.’
This post was published at Schiffgold on NOVEMBER 9, 2017.
‘The best way to teach your kids about taxes is by eating 30% of their ice cream.’ – Bill Murray
When I saw that slimy tentacle of the Goldman Sachs vampire squid, Gary Cohn, bloviating about Trump’s tax plan and how it was going to do wonders for the middle class, I knew I was probably going to get screwed again. And after perusing the outline of their plan, it is certain I will be getting it up the ass once again from my beloved government.
I know everyone’s tax situation is different, but I’m just a hard working middle aged white man with two kids in college and some hefty family medical expenses. I’m already clobbered with Federal, State, City, and real estate taxes, along with huge toll taxes, sales taxes, gasoline taxes, utility taxes, phone taxes and probably a hundred more hidden taxes and fees.
I fucking hate taxes and want nothing more than to see them cut dramatically. I voted for Trump for the following reasons:
He wasn’t that evil hateful shrew named Hillary Clinton He promised to repeal and replace Obamacare
This post was published at The Burning Platform on Sept 29, 2017.
A consultant to GATA (Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee) brought to our attention the fact that gold swaps at the BIS have soared from zero in March 2016 to almost 500 tonnes by August 2017 (GATA – BIS Gold Swaps). The outstanding balance is now higher than it was in 2011, leading up to the violent systematically manipulated take-down of the gold price starting in September 2011 (silver was attacked starting in April 2011).
The report stimulated my curiosity because most bloggers reference the BIS or articles about the BIS gold market activity without actually perusing through BIS financial statements and the accompanying footnotes. Gold swaps work similarly to Fed report transactions. When banks need cash liquidity, the Fed extends short term loans to the banks and receives Treasuries as collateral. QE can be seen as a multi-trillion dollar Permanent Repo operation that involved outright money printing.
Similarly, if the bullion banks (HSBC, JP Morgan, Citigroup, Barclays, etc) need access to a supply of gold, the BIS will ‘swap’ gold for cash. This would involve BIS or BIS Central Bank member gold which is loaned out to the banks and the banks deposit cash as collateral to against the gold ‘loan.’ This operation is benignly called a ‘gold swap.’ The purpose would be to alleviate a short term scarcity of gold in London and put gold into the hands of the bullion banks that can be delivered into the eastern hemisphere countries who are importing large quantities of gold (gold swaps outstanding are referenced beginning in 2010).
This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on September 18, 2017.
On Monday Russia warned that it would begin aggressively reducing its dependence on the US Dollar and US-based payment systems, and shortly after it confirmed just that when Indonesia announced that it will barter coffee, palm oil, tea and various other commodities in exchange for 11 Russian-made Su-35 fighter jets, calling U. S. and European sanctions against Russia “an opportunity to boost the Southeast Asian nation’s trade.”
The Indonesian Ministry of Trade said that a memorandum of understanding for the barter was signed Aug. 4 in Moscow between Russia’s Rostec and PT. Perusahaan Perdagangan Indonesia, both state-owned companies. ‘This barter under the supervision of both governments hopefully will soon be realized through the exchange of 11 Sukhoi Su-35s and a number of Indonesian exports, starting from coffee and tea to palm oil and strategic defense products,’ Indonesian Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita said on Monday, as quoted by Reuters.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 7, 2017.
On the southwestern edge of Lake Titicaca, Peru, there is an ancient 23-foot doorway known as the Aramu Muru. Local natives call it the ‘Puerta de hayu Marca,’ the gateway to the lands of the gods and immortal life. Throughout their history, the natives have described people disappearing and appearing at this doorway.
In 1998, purported extraterrestrial contactee Jerry Wills claimed a tall blonde humanoid named Zo taught him how to access Aramu Muru and enter ‘another universe.’ Wills further claimed that Zo illustrated to him how our universe is an experimental simulation within his species’ universe. They built it to understand their own reality, which is itself nested inside a larger universe.
The next year, in 1999, the blockbuster science fiction film The Matrix came out and forever emblazoned into our collective subconscious the idea that our existence is a simulation created by a more advanced race of beings. Incidentally, the film also made long black trench coats, black sunglasses, and my last name all the rage, but I digress…
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 13, 2017.
The unthinkable is happening so fast to America that there is a serious, growing threat that U. S. citizens are becoming desensitized to the chilling reality of our nation’s precipitous decline in respect and credibility around the world. The reflex action is to either deny it’s happening or pull the covers over one’s head.
Two weeks before President Donald Trump announced the U. S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, Der Spiegel, one of the most influential and widely read news magazines in Europe, published a breathtaking assessment of the sitting President of the United States. Written by its Executive Editor, Klaus Brinkbumer, the editorial was brutal and came from a publication known for its investigative acumen. Brinkbumer made the following observations:
‘Donald Trump has transformed the United States into a laughing stock and he is a danger to the world. He must be removed from the White House before things get even worse…
‘Donald Trump is not fit to be president of the United States. He does not possess the requisite intellect and does not understand the significance of the office he holds nor the tasks associated with it. He doesn’t read. He doesn’t bother to peruse important files and intelligence reports and knows little about the issues that he has identified as his priorities. His decisions are capricious and they are delivered in the form of tyrannical decrees…
This post was published at Wall Street On Parade By Pam Martens and Russ Marte.
According to the most recently released data from Chile’s Ministry of Mining, the country’s silver production declined a stunning 26% in the first quarter of 2017. This is a big deal as Chile is the fourth largest silver producing country in the world. The majority of Chile’s silver production comes as a by-product of copper production.
Chile is the largest copper producer in the world, by a long shot. Last year, Chile produced 5.5 million tons of copper compared to Peru, who took a distant second place at 2.3 million tons.
Regardless, Chile’s silver production declined to 283.4 metric tons (mt) Q1 2017 versus 383.8 mt during the same quarter last year. Again, this is a huge 26% decline in the first three months of the year:
This post was published at SRSrocco Report on MAY 12, 2017.
The Peru Ministry of Energy and Mining just released their silver production data for February, and it was a whopper to the downside. Actually, I was quite surprised to see how much Peru’s silver production declined versus the same month last year. Also, Peru’s gold February production took a similar big hit.
According to the Peru Ministry of Energy and Mining data, the country’s silver production fell 12% to 323.1 metric tons (mt) this February versus 367.4 mt the same month last year:
This is a 44 mt decline in one month, nearly 1.5 million oz lost. Here is the table from the Peru Ministry of Energy and Mining showing various metals production data for February:
Silver is shown as ‘PLATA’ and as we see, overall silver production for JAN-FEB has declined 6.7% compared to the same period last year. Which means, Peru’s silver production took a much larger hit in February than in January. Furthermore, Peru’s gold production (shown as ‘ORO’), also declined significantly by falling 11.3% in February.
This post was published at SRSrocco Report on APRIL 18, 2017.
In the United States and other economically advanced countries, we tend to take information for granted. With the proliferation of smartphones and ubiquitous data networks, we literally have information at our fingertips 24/7. But in less developed countries, that’s not the case. Information is as scarce and valuable as gold.
Slowly, but surely, that’s beginning to change as technology creeps into the furthest corners of the world. In Peru, a new company is using basic text messaging technology to help local gold miners.
Peru is home to some 150,000-200,000 ‘informal’ artisanal miners. These laborers scrape out a living mining gold by hand on small concessions. They sell their metal to local buyers, and that’s where the problems can begin. Without knowing the current spot price of gold, miners can easily be tricked into accepting a lower price.
This post was published at Schiffgold on APRIL 5, 2017.
The key economic releases in the US this week are ISM manufacturing on Monday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week. Consensus expected 175K jobs to be added at Friday’s US Nonfarm payrolls. Additionally, there will be updates on Eurozone industrial production data, a series of ECB speakers and the French election TV debate. In EM, there are monetary policy meetings in India, Israel, Peru, Poland and Romania as well as a series of rating reviews.
Market participants will also be paying attention to the meeting between Trump and Xi set for Thursday and Friday at Mar-A-Lago.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Apr 3, 2017.
I thought I would put today in perspective for those throwing in the towel on gold and silver. 23,000 silver contracts were sold in just a few minutes this morning. This equates to 115 million ounces. For perspective, there are only two countries in the world that produce this much in one year, Mexico and Peru. China roughly produces 115 million ounces but the production is not normally sold onto world markets.
Looking at this from a ‘company’ perspective, no single company even comes close to producing 115 million ounces. In fact, the three largest silver producing companies in the world, Fresnillo, KGHM Polska, and Goldcorp only produce about 125 million ounces combined over a year’s time.
Today’s action, selling 115 million ounces of silver is an impossibility in any ‘real world’ governed by any real rule of law because of the above production numbers. As I have said for years when these raids occur, ‘no one has this much silver to sell, and no one would be stupid enough to sell in this fashion if they were trying to get the best price possible for themselves or their client’.
This post was published at JSMineSet on March 2nd, 2017.
While Peru’s silver production surged in the beginning of 2016, it experienced a double-digit decline in December versus the same month last year. Peru is the second largest silver producing country in the world, trailing Mexico by approximately 40 million oz, but now leading third-ranked China by a wide margin.
Peru started off 2016 with a bang by increasing silver production 14% in the first three months of the year:
The mining production figures in the table (Source: Peru Ministry of Energy & Mines), shows that Peru’s silver production in March increased 10% versus the previous year and nearly 14% in the first three months compared to the same period in 2015.
This post was published at SRSrocco Report on February 27, 2017.
What will President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe talk about when they meet later today? Will they gab about what fishing holes the big belly bass are biting at? Will they share insider secrets on what watering holes are serving up the stiffest drinks?
Indeed, these topics are unlikely. Rather, what they’ll be discussing is cooperative trade, growth, and employment policies between their respective national economies. They’ll also talk about currency debasement opportunities.
Soon enough, perhaps by the time you read this, you’ll be able to peruse the headlines and garner soundbites of their discussions. Maybe a new partnership will be announced. Anything’s possible.
Regardless, what follows is a brief review – a thirty year retread – that’s intended to put the meeting within its proper context. This is the backstory you won’t hear anywhere else…
To begin, it was precisely the wrong thing to do at precisely the wrong time. But that didn’t stop the best and the brightest from attempting to improve upon the natural order of things.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Feb 10, 2017.
So the trade wars have begun. Less than 72 hrs into to his first term, President Donald Trump has wasted no time making good on a number of campaign pledges, including today’s signing of an executive order to pull the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal.
The 12 nation deal was dubbed the ‘Gold Standard’ by former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and was supposed to be the high-water mark of ex-President Barack Obama’s economic legacy – continuously championed by Obama and his backers on Wall Street, but was not yet approved by Congress.
The deal was initially designed for the US, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Brunei, Chile and Peru, but plans to extend its corporate reach would eventually include all countries in South America and the Pacific Rim. The other 11 nation signatories will likely move ahead with the deal regardless of the US, but it will be a weaker play in terms of geopolitical leverage.
This latest announcement follows Trump’s inauguration speech, promising from now on to put ‘America First,’ while promoting the anti-globalization mantra of , ‘buy American and hire American.’
Said Trump: ‘We’ve been talking about this for a long time,’ adding that today’s move will be a ‘great thing for the American worker.’
This post was published at 21st Century Wire on JANUARY 23, 2017.
If the Fed were to reverse the portion of its QE in which it injected trillions onto big bank balance sheets as well as fomented a mortgage/housing bubble, the Too Big To Fails – including Goldman Sachs – would collapse. Make no mistake, it would ultimately prove to be a good thing.
However, there’s also a growing groundswell of grassroot Americans who have ‘woken up.’ Perhaps the only good attribute of the last election is that hastened the rate of enlightenment. Too be sure, the number of Americans who understand the difference between Truth and Propaganda has vastly increased.
A reader of this blog and subscriber to the Mining Stock and Short Seller Journals submitted this narrative of a recent ‘enlightenment’ experience that occurred while on a routine visit to the local barber shop. It’s worth perusing:
I’m almost speechless as a result of the experience I just had. I have just returned from getting a haircut at the local barbershop downtown. I was there along with the barber, a semi-retired gentleman who now drives a school bus part-time, and a local hay farmer. Our conversation was an absolute stunner, and provides very compelling (albeit admittedly anecdotal) evidence that the bankster elite are in BIG trouble.
This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on December 11, 2016.