This post was published at RoadtoRoota
December 16, 2017 is the tenth anniversary of the modern Tea Party. That fact will surprise many laypersons who uncritically accept the mainstream narrative that the Tea Party began on February 19, 2009 when Rick Santelli, live on CNBC from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), declared a rebellion against “socialism” one month into the Obama administration.
But wait a minute: Rick Santelli on establishment NBC lighting the spark of an anti-establishment rebellion? An uprising over mere proposed Obama bailouts of mortgage holders coming four months after silence over (if not a defense of) George W. Bush’s $700 billion TARP bailout of Wall Street?
If the mainstream narrative seems fishy, that is because it is. What really happened ten years ago and how was the Tea Party transformed from a libertarian grass-roots movement to today’s controlled (and just-about dead) establishment version? What are some of the lessons that can be learned?
This post was published at Ludwig von Mises Institute on 12/18/2017.
We freely admit: Figure 1 is probably the strangest chart that you will ever see, at least in finance.
You may be wondering: did they throw blue spaghetti noodle on paper for inspiration and then write an economics article about it? Or, have they spent too much time with disciples of psychologist Timothy Leary, a proponent of experimenting with psychedelic drugs?
Figure 1: Weirdest Chart Ever
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 5, 2017.
Bitcoin is back over $10,000 after the the CFTC confirmed what had been previously reported, namely that it would allow bitcoin futures to trade on two exchanges, the CME and CBOE Futures Exchange, also granting the Cantor Exchange permission to trade a contract for bitcoin binary options.
The CFTC announced that through a process known as “self-certification,” CME and Cboe stated that their contracts comply with U. S. law and CFTC regulations. The US commodity regulator also said that the it held ‘rigorous discussions’ with the exchanges that resulted in improvements to the contracts’ designs and settlement.
As to when the first bitcoin futures will cross the tape, the CME said it has self-certified the initial listing of its bitcoin futures to launch Monday, December 18, 2017.
‘Bitcoin, a virtual currency, is a commodity unlike any the Commission has dealt with in the past,’ said CFTC Chairman J. Christopher Giancarlo. ‘As a result, we have had extensive discussions with the exchanges regarding the proposed contracts, and CME, CFE and Cantor have agreed to significant enhancements to protect customers and maintain orderly markets. In working with the Commission, CME, CFE and Cantor have set an appropriate standard for oversight over these bitcoin contracts given the CFTC’s limited statutory ability to oversee the cash market for bitcoin.’
‘Market participants should take note that the relatively nascent underlying cash markets and exchanges for bitcoin remain largely unregulated markets over which the CFTC has limited statutory authority. There are concerns about the price volatility and trading practices of participants in these markets. We expect that the futures exchanges, through information sharing agreements, will be monitoring the trading activity on the relevant cash platforms for potential impacts on the futures contracts’ price discovery process, including potential market manipulation and market dislocations due to flash rallies and crashes and trading outages. Nevertheless, investors should be aware of the potentially high level of volatility and risk in trading these contracts.’
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Dec 1, 2017.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced a plan to launch Bitcoin futures by the end of the year. The price of Bitcoin surged to a new record in response to the announcement. It was reminiscent of the dot.com era, when a dot.com stock would jump 10% if Maria Bartiromo merely whispered the name of the company on CNBC.
Ironically, the cheers for this new contract from the Bitcoin faithful could turn out to be analogous to chickens in the barnyard cheering at the appearance of Colonel Sanders.
GATA released an article about the new Bitcoin futures contract titled ‘So Long Cryptos.’ I’m sure that editorial stance puzzled most Bitcoin price-momentum chasers. Crypto aficionados, for now, overlook the fact that CME futures are used aggressively to push around the dollar-based Comex gold and silver futures contracts.
As GATA points out, the ability to manipulate precious metals futures contracts by the official entities motivated to suppress the price of gold is reinforced by the volume trading discounts given from the CME to Governments and Central Banks who trade on the CME.
This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on November 1, 2017.
With realized volatility having fallen to near-record lows this month, CME Group Chairman and CEO Terry Duffy tapped into the trepidation that many traders feel about today’s unsettlingly placid markets during an interview with CNBC Thursday, saying that he’s ‘surprised’ at the present lack of volatility, adding that many market participants are essentially too afraid to trade.
Ultimately, the torrid pace of this year’s advance in global stocks, which has sent US shares sailing through record high after record high, has made traders too fearful to sell for fear of missing out on further gains – but they’re also too afraid to buy because of the precarious situation with North Korea, and uncertainty surrounding the path of domestic fiscal and economic policy.
To be sure, subdued volatility isn’t happening in isolation. Low rates and low commodity prices (among a host of other factors) have helped propell shares higher. But right now, markets are essentially in a ‘wait and see mode.’
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 26, 2017.
Last week, we discussed the ongoing fall of dividend, and especially earnings, yields. This Report is not a stock letter, and we make no stock market predictions. We talk about this phenomenon to make a different point. The discount rate has fallen to a very low level indeed.
Discount in stocks is how you assess the present-day value of earnings to occur in the future. For example, if the discount rate is 10%, then a dollar of earnings per share at Acme Piping next year is worth $0.90 today. At a 1% discount, it’s worth $0.99. As you look forward many years, the difference between these rates is very large.
A buck of earnings at 10% discount = $1.00 + $0.90 + $0.81 + $0.73 … = $10.
At 1% discount = $1.00 + $0.99 + $0.98 + $0.97 … = $100.
A rising stock price is equivalent to a falling discount rate, assuming earnings are not growing commensurately. Our graph last week shows that they aren’t.
The idea of commensurate is important in economics. Any economist can paint a rosy picture by, for example, showing rising GDP. If you object that debt is rising with GDP, the economist switches to a chart of debt/GDP. He will tell you that the solution is to grow GDP with the right fiscal and regulatory policies.
However, we can look at how much additional GDP is added for each newly-borrowed dollar. This is called marginal productivity of debt. This shows a clear picture, a secular decline over many decades. To produce this graph, take change in GDP divided by change in debt.
This post was published at GoldSeek on Monday, 16 October 2017.
Demand has exploded for a cheap options bet which stands to benefit should the market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December tumble.
As Bloomberg reports, the eurodollar call option involved expires Friday, so the biggest chance the wager has to profit lies with a weaker-than-forecast print on the September consumer price index, set for release at 8:30 a.m. New York time.
The options position emerged Wednesday, and was added to dramatically on Thursday, CME open interest data show.
Expectations are for a 0.6% rise in CPI MoM (Core CPI +0.2% exp) and the whisper number is for a 0.5% rise.
The current odds for a Dec rate hike are 80.2%…
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Oct 13, 2017.
Closing access prices:
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1302.86 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1291.55
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $11.31 (premiums getting larger)
SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1298.30
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1289.30
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$9.00 (PREMIUMS GETTING LARGER)
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1290.20
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1289.50
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1289.25
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1289.25
For comex gold:
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 2329 FOR 232,900 OZ (7.241TONNES)
1 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 392 for 1,960,000 oz
This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on October 11, 2017.
07 October 2017 — Saturday
YESTERDAY in GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM and PALLADIUM
The gold price traded mostly sideways in Far East trading on their Friday, but developed a slight positive bias around the time that London opened. That lasted until shortly before the noon silver fix over there — and the price began to slide a bit. There was only a tiny price jiggle at the release of the jobs report at 8:30 a.m. in New York, but the price was pressured lower until the low tick of the day…and new intraday low for this move down…was set at the afternoon gold fix in London. It rallied sharply from there, before getting capped at the London close — and from that point chopped quietly, but unevenly higher for the rest of the Friday session.
The CME Group reported the low and high ticks at $1,262.80 and $1,279.20 in the December contract.
Gold finished the Friday session on its high tick of the day at $1,276.10 spot — and up $8.30 from Thursday’s close. Not surprisingly, net volume was over the moon at something around 352,000 contracts.
This post was published at GoldSeek on Sunday, 8 October 2017.
The London Bullion Market Association recently chose a new administrator for its silver price auction, and scientists have discovered a variety of rice that accumulates and stores naturally occurring silver in the soil.
The Silver Institute covers these stories, and highlights several other technological innovations involving silver, in its latest issue of Silver News.
ICE Benchmark Administration will begin administering the silver benchmark and operating the auction underlying the London Bullion Market Association Silver Price in late September. IBA replaces a joint effort by CME Group and Thomson Reuters. IBA currently operates the London Gold Price benchmark.
This post was published at Schiffgold on SEPTEMBER 19, 2017.
A month ago, we wrote about the bitcoin fork. We described the fork:
Picture a bank, the old-fashioned kind. Call it Acme (sorry, we watched too much Coyote and Road Runner growing up). A group of disgruntled employees leave. They take a copy of the book of accounts. They set up a new bank across the street, Wile E Bank. To win customers, they say if you had an account at Acme Bank, you now have an account at Wile, with the same balance!
This post was published at Acting-Man on September 5, 2017.
Chris Powell and Bill Murphy formed the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee in 1998 and they’ve been stalwart allies in the fight against gold price suppression and manipulation ever since. What a pleasure it was today to get caught up with Chris and get his thoughts on the current state of the global market for gold.
As you listen, you’ll quickly be reminded that Chris is still one of the most informed and well-spoken advocates for our cause. Over the course of this webinar, he addresses a number of current issues including:
the most important lesson he’s learned in the 20 years he’s followed the gold market the strange occurrence of SecTreas Mnuchin visiting Ft Knox and the equally strange television interview of Terry Duffy, the CEO of the CME Group whether the US government would financially benefit from revaluing the price of gold how physical demand will paly a role in finally ending the tyranny of the central banks and bullion banks and much, much more!
This post was published at TF Metals Report on Thursday, August 31, 2017.
A Fork in the Cryptographic Road So bitcoin forked. You did not know this. Well, if you’re saving in gold perhaps not. If you’re betting in the crypto-coin casino, you knew it, bet on it, and now we assume are happily diving into your greater quantity of dollars after the fork.
You don’t have a greater quantity of bitcoins; bitcoin has no yield. Bitcoin simply sells for a greater quantity of dollars now than it did before. But who wants to sell? Bitcoin is going to a million bucks – at least. So bitcoin, whatever it is, forked. Whatever forking is. To understand these two concepts, let’s consider an analogy.
Picture a bank, the old-fashioned kind. Call it Acme (sorry, we watched too much Coyote and Road Runner growing up). A group of disgruntled employees leave. They take a copy of the book of accounts. They set up a new bank across the street, Wile E. Bank. To win customers, they say if you had an account at Acme Bank, you now have an account at Wile, with the same balance!
This post was published at Acting-Man on August 8, 2017.
Will voters in one of the most crime-ridden cities in the country be able to stomach voting for a convicted felon? Residents of Detroit are about to find out. Half of the candidates running in next Tuesday’s mayoral primary – the first since the city emerged from Bankruptcy protection in 2014 – have felony convictions on their records, according to an analysis of criminal records by the Detroit News.
In what we must admit is a masterful attempt at spin, one political operative said the felony convictions make the candidates more relatable because they show the candidates have each “lived a little.”
‘Black marks on your record show you have lived a little and have overcome some challenges,’ said Bowens, a former press secretary to Detroit Mayor Dennis Archer and NAACP activist. ‘They (candidates) deserve the opportunity to be heard, but they also deserve to have the kind of scrutiny that comes along with trying to get an important elected position.’
Michigan election law stipulates that convicted felons can vote and run for office as long as they are not incarcerated or guilty of certain fraud-related offenses, or crimes involving a breach of the public trust. The top two finishers in the primary will go on to face off against incumbent mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for reelection. Duggan has received endorsements from a host of powerful unions, including the Detroit Metro AFL-CIO and the powerful public employees’ union AFSCME.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 3, 2017.
Ballooning open interest, heavy fix selling, aggressive post-settlement selling, flash crashes – this all seems a lot of bother. Perhaps the Other Side is afraid of something. – John Brimelow from his Gold Jottings report
Wednesday evening at 7:06 EST, at one of the least liquid trading periods of the 23 hour trading day for Comex paper gold, a ‘motivated’ seller unloaded 10,777 August gold contracts into the CME’s Globex trading system, knocking the price of gold down $9 in 25 minutes. There were no obvious news or events reported that would have triggered any investor to dump over 1 million ozs of gold with complete disregard to price execution.
This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on August 3, 2017.
The COMEX gold futures market and the London OTC gold market have a joint monopoly on setting the international gold price. This is because these two markets generate the largest ‘gold’ trading volumes and have the highest ‘liquidity’. However, this price setting dominance is despite either of these two markets actually trading physical gold bars. Both markets merely trade different forms of derivatives of gold bars.
Overall, the COMEX (which is owned by the CME Group) is even more dominant that the London market in setting the international price of gold. This is a feat which financial academics ascribe to COMEX being a centralized electronic platform offering low transaction costs, ease of leverage, and ‘the ability to avoid dealing with the underlying asset’ (i.e. COMEX allows its participants to avoid dealing with gold bars). Because of these traits, say the academics, COMEX has a ‘disproportionately large role in [gold] price discovery’.
Over 95% of COMEX gold futures trading is now conducted on CME’s electronic trading platform Globex, with most of the remainder done on CME’s electronic Clearport, where futures trades executed in the OTC market can be settled by CME. Next to nothing in gold futures is traded any more via pit-based open outcry.
This post was published at Bullion Star on 18 Jul 2017.
In his Gold Videocast last week, Peter Schiff made the case that silver is extremely undervalued, especially when compared with gold.
In a recent interview with Neil Cavuto on Fox Business, CME Group Chairman Terry Duffy says gold is undervalued as well. He said he believes realistically, gold should be at $5,000 to $6,000 per ounce.
And at some point, the price will catch up with reality.
If you look at the price of gold today, just around $1,200 an ounce, and if you look at back in the early 80s. it was trading around $800 an ounce. So, if you adjust for inflation, you should have gold at around $2,000 or $3,000 an ounce, and if you look at what’s gone on in the world, it should probably be at $5,000 or $6,000 an ounce.’
Duffy said he thinks the main reason gold and silver remain undervalued has to do with the fact that most people misjudge and downplay the amount of instability and economic chaos in the world. But at some point, the blinders will fall off.
This post was published at Schiffgold on JULY 17, 2017.