One Bank Calculates The Odds Of A Market Correction In The Next 3 Months

Yesterday was a historic day for the S&P 500: not only did the index close at a new record high, but it was also 269% higher than its “generational lows” of March 2009, surpassing the 266% increase during the 1949 to 1956 bull market, according to Bloomberg calculations.
And while there is no reason to doubt that central bankers – who no longer have anything to lose from blowing the biggest, hopefully last bubble in history – can push this artificial “market” to unprecedented levels, even taking out the top spot of the 1990-2000 market run which saw the S&P rise by over 400%, others are less sanguine, and in recent weeks calls for an imminent correction have become a chorus. After all, it has now been years since there was even a modest drop in the S&P500, resulting in an generation of traders who are unfamiliar with using the sell button (for those asking, one definition of correction vs a crash is that the former follow rich valuations, but only crashes are associated with recessions).

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 14, 2017.