In a day when gold is surging to the highest level since the Trump election, what better way to hedge what happens next than to issue two separate price targets. We bring this up, because that’s precisely what Goldman Sachs did today.
First, in a note discussing the relative merits of gold as a “currency as a last resort”, and which eyed the suitability of the yellow metal as a hedge to an escalating North Korean crisis (discussed earlier), Goldman’s chief currency strategist, Jeffrey Currie issue the following trade recommendation:
In coming months, the unfortunate aftermath of hurricane Harvey suggests that Washington is going to have to overcome their differences, pass spending bills, try harder to avoid a government shutdown and pursue infrastructure projects sooner than later. Our economists believe the probability of a government shutdown has declined further from their prior assessment of 35% and now put it at around 15%. As a result, we are maintaining our end-of-year gold price forecast of $1250/toz barring a substantial escalation in North Korea. So on one hand Goldman is expecting a drop of nearly $100 in the coming three months. Fair enough, Goldman’s bearish bias on gold has been duly noted on these pages in the past.
What, however, makes Goldman’s stance confusing is that just a few hours after the Currie report was released, Goldman’s chief technician issued an analysis which concluded something completely different.
In her daily “Today’s Top Tech” report focusing on precious and base metals, Goldman’s Sheba Jafari writes that “Gold, Silver and Copper are all three showing potential to continue higher” and adds that “Gold and Silver have targets in the area of 1,375-1,380 and 18.97.” And some more details:
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 5, 2017.