The Complete Debt Ceiling Decision Tree: “An Alarmingly High Probability Of A Very Bad Outcome”

Jon Government

For all the breathless newsflow over the past 7 days, the single most consequential event of last week was the sudden jump in debt ceiling/government shutdown odds following Donald Trump’s confrontational Phoenix speech, which laid out a problematic dilemma: Trump’s Mexican wall, or a government shutdown. While various financial pundits rushed to discount the odds of a worst case scenario, the market – in Treasury bills, if not so much equities – was spooked, sending the “pre-post default bill” spread to the widest on record…

… as October 5/12 Bill yields continued to blow out after various politicians were quoted with doomsday predictions, some suggesting the odds of a shutdown are as high as 75%.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 26, 2017.