Metals Break Out Now Or In A Few Weeks?

This past week, the GDX has finally taken out its resistance at 22.65, and provided us with some semblance of an impulsive structure off the recent lows. However, the micro structure it is not the cleanest of structures, similar to silver.
Yet, as long as the metals do not break below their July lows, we are again set up to see a massive break out. While I still cannot tell you if the metals will take advantage of that set up, as they failed to do so the last time we had a break out set up, if they do not take advantage of this set up within the next few weeks, we could see a major failure to launch take hold, and drop us lower than the bulls would care for. So, it seems it’s time for the metals to step up.
While we were appropriately looking for a bottoming in the complex in early July, the rally we have seen in GDX and silver have been quite lackluster from an Elliott Wave perspective. I still have no standard impulsive structure adhering to Fibonacci Pinball in either of those charts. However, what could reconcile those charts is if the market has developed as a series of 1’s and 2’s off the lows, suggesting that a major breakout could be imminent.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 4 August 2017.