Get Ready for an Historic Upside Gold and Silver Run

The Bigger the Base, the Greater the Upside Case. This saying among technical analysts/chartists helps define where we are today in the precious metals – and where we’ll soon be headed.
It means that when prices “base” in a relatively narrow sideways range for an extended period, they will at some point break out. Before the action gets underway, bears and bulls alike will get “sandpapered” as they take positions, trying to guess whether or not the price is getting ready to decline further or move upward into a new bull phase.
If you consider that time spent in sideways consolidation represents a build-up in stored energy, then a valid upside breakout will be propelled by a lot of buying fuel as old shorts who bet on lower prices offset their losing positions and new longs jump in to get onboard the change in trend.

This post was published at GoldSeek on Friday, 4 August 2017.

Only Ten Year After the Last Financial Crisis the Banks Are At It Again

If at times his [Andrew Jackson’s] passionate devotion to this cause of the average citizen lent an amazing zeal to his thoughts, to his speech and to his actions, the people loved him for it the more. They realized the intensity of the attacks made by his enemies, by those who, thrust from power and position, pursued him with relentless hatred. The beneficiaries of the abuses to which he put an end pursued him with all the violence that political passions can generate. But the people of his day were not deceived. They loved him for the enemies he had made.
Backed not only by his party but by thousands who had belonged to other parties or belonged to no party at all, Andrew Jackson was compelled to fight every inch of the way for the ideals and the policies of the Democratic Republic which was his ideal.
An overwhelming proportion of the material power of the Nation was arrayed against him. The great media for the dissemination of information and the molding of public opinion fought him. Haughty and sterile intellectualism opposed him. Musty reaction disapproved him. Hollow and outworn traditionalism shook a trembling finger at him. It seemed sometimes that all were against him – all but the people of the United States.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 04 August 2017.

Gen. Kelly Unveils His Rules To Restore Order To Trump’s White House

“Stop Bickering, Get in Early, Make an Appointment.”
That’s how the WSJ summarizes the new White House protocol implemented by Trump’s new Chief of Staff, Gen. John Kelly, appointed just one week ago, and who has been tasked with what many believe is impossible: restoring order to the White House.
It’s already working. According to an anecdote relayed by the journal, earlier this week, a small group of senior officials talked with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office about plans to take on Beijing over intellectual-property theft. When a side debate broke out between two top aides, the new White House chief of staff ordered the pair out of the room.
Return, John Kelly told them, once your differences are resolved, according to a person familiar with the exchange. The move kept the meeting on track. It also signaled to top staff that Mr. Kelly, a retired four-star general, planned to bring new order and discipline to a West Wing that has been riven for six months with division and disorganization, a move which has been cheered by many on Wall Street – notably Citi – who believe that Kelly’s arrival could mark a new phase for the heretofore chaotic, disorganized presidency and which may even lead to Trump’s successful passage of his proposed tax reform.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 4, 2017.

Gambling on Argentine Politics: US Dollar vs. Short-Term Debt

The incredible credibility conundrum. By Bianca Fernet, Argentina, The Bubble: Trying to figure out what’s going on with Argentina’s Central Bank’s monetary policy right now is about as exact a science as checking out the horses as they parade around the paddock before a big race. There are clear favorites, a few dark horses, and until someone crosses the finish line it’s all guesswork. Except a lot less enjoyable because horses are cooler than politicians.
Argentina’s currency market hiccuped last week at the prospect that former President Cristina Fernndez de Kirchner has an actual shot at becoming a national Senator, representing the Buenos Aires Province. After hovering pretty close to AR $15 for the better part of the year, last week the US dollar exchange rate reached AR $18.

This post was published at Wolf Street by Bianca Fernet ‘ Aug 4, 2017.

Fun on Friday: Can You Have Your Gold and Eat It Too?

Hungry?
How about some gold!
Yes. You can have your gold and eat it too.
A new Japanese restaurant in Los Altos, Calif., will serve you a steak covered in gold flecks.
Hiroshi caters to Silicon Valley elite. The restaurant only accommodates eight diners per night. The tab generally runs between $500 and $600 per person, according to Business Insider. Hiroshi occupies a nondescript building. A sign simply states ‘open by appointment only.’ It has no windows, no menus, and just a single table.
But you can eat gold with your steak. So there is that.
‘The gold is more for show,’ Hiroshi general manager Kevin Biggerstaff told Business Insider. ‘It doesn’t really have any flavor.’
When I first saw this article, I thought it was unusual. The only golden flake food I’ve ever seen are potato chips. (You might not get that if you’re not from the south. Trust me, Golden Flake chips are a big thing.) But apparently eating real gold is a thing.

This post was published at Schiffgold on AUGUST 4, 2017.

‘Dr.Doom’ Warns “The Gap Between Wall And Main Street Is Widening… Correction Is Inevitable”

Now that US President Donald Trump has been in office for six months, we can more confidently assess the prospects for the US economy and economic policymaking under his administration. And, like Trump’s presidency more generally, paradoxes abound.
The main puzzle is the disconnect between the performance of financial markets and the real. While stock markets continue to reach new highs, the US economy grew at an average rate of just 2% in the first half of 2017 – slower growth than under President Barack Obama – and is not expected to perform much better for the rest of the year.
Stock-market investors continue to hold out hope that Trump can push through policies to stimulate growth and increase corporate profits. Moreover, sluggish wage growth implies that inflation is not reaching the US Federal Reserve’s target rate, which means that the Fed will have to normalize interest rates more slowly than expected.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 4, 2017.

Gold Stocks’ Autumn Rally 2

The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a lackluster year so far, mostly lagging gold’s solid new upleg. But that vexing underperformance should soon give way to a big catch-up surge. The deeply-out-of-favor gold stocks are now entering their strong season, which starts right about now with a powerful autumn rally. That generates major gains on average in bull-market years, and this year’s upside potential is exceptional.
Seasonality is the tendency for prices to exhibit recurring patterns at certain times during the calendar year. While seasonality doesn’t drive price action, it quantifies annually-repeating behavior driven by sentiment, technicals, and fundamentals. We humans are creatures of habit and herd, which naturally colors our trading decisions. The calendar year’s passage affects the timing and intensity of buying and selling.
Gold stocks exhibit strong seasonality because their price action mirrors that of their dominant primary driver, gold. Gold’s seasonality isn’t driven by supply fluctuations like grown commodities experience, as its mined supply remains fairly steady year-round. Instead gold’s major seasonality is demand-driven, with global investment demand varying dramatically depending on the time within the calendar year.

This post was published at ZEAL LLC on August 4, 2017.

Watch Live: Jeff Sessions Announces Crackdown On Leakers

AG Sessions: "This nation must end this culture of leaks." pic.twitter.com/umwtlFfbcZ
— Fox News (@FoxNews) August 4, 2017

US Attorney General Jeff Sessions Attorney General Jeff Sessions, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein are holding a press conference, briefing the media on leaks of classified material and the Administration’s efforts to crack down on future incidents.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 4, 2017.

Gold Tumbles To Key Technical Support As Dollar ‘Dead Cat’ Bounces

The Dollar Index is spiking phoenix-like from the flames of collapse this morning on the basis of one jobs number (and still-low Dec rate-hike odds). Gold is reacting to this kneejerk, tumbling over 1% and testing down towards its 50- and 100-day moving-average support…
We have seen this kind of squeeze in the dollar index before (cough last week after The Fed’s plunge)…

But gold is breaking down – running stops below the week’s flash crash lows and testing towards its key technical support…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 4, 2017.

GLD Shrinks Like It’s Sept 2011 Before US Jobs Data Send Gold Prices -0.6% for Week

Gold prices sank 0.6% against the Dollar on Friday as the US reported stronger-than-expected jobs data for July.
New York’s stock markets opened the day lower as the Dollar rallied from its latest 31-month lows to the Euro and bond prices fell, pushing longer-term interest rates higher.
Listen to Avi Gilburt on Stock Market Peak, Future of the US Dollar and Gold
Non-farm payrolls expanded by 209,000 last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, beating analyst forecasts of 183,000 with June’s figure also revised higher.
Having recovered last week’s finish of $1269 on Friday morning, Dollar-priced gold dropped $7 immediately after today’s new US jobs data.
Gold prices had previously risen 3.9% from 1 month before, the fastest rolling 1-month rate of gain since start-June’s peak at $1295 per ounce.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 08/04/2017.

Gold Market Morning: August-4-2017

Overall the dollar was weaker against global currencies, early today. Before London’s opening:
– The $: was weaker at $1.1881 after the yesterday’s $1.1849: 1.
– The Dollar index was weaker at 92.74 after yesterday’s 92.92.
– The Yen was stronger at 110.02 after yesterday’s 110.66:$1.
– The Yuan was stronger at 6.7200 after yesterday’s 6.7237: $1.
– The Pound Sterling was weaker at $1.3149 after yesterday’s $1.3232: 1
Yuan Gold Fix
New York closed almost $11 higher than Shanghai’s close yesterday. But today, with the ongoing weakness in the dollar, the dollar gold price in London rose. But we need to look at the movement of the Yuan price of gold in Shanghai today to see the movement in the Yuan price of gold. There we see that there is a steadiness in the Yuan gold price in the last few days with only a 1 Yuan movement in the price both ways.
If we look back over the last few days we see that this has been the case even while New York tried to create volatility in the New York price. Earlier this year we pointed out that we expected a drop in the volatility of the global gold price because of the cost of speculating in Shanghai being so much now. Add to this the LMEprecious arbitrage contracts that are now in operation and, no doubt, the arbitrage desks in the large banks.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 4 August 2017.

Only Employment Gains In The Past Year: Those With A High School Diploma Or Lower

In its latest, July, snapshot of the US economy, the NY Fed observed something startling, and which hasn’t received much discussion in the media: when looking at the June report, over the past year the only employment gains have gone to less educated Americans, or as the NY Fed puts it, “over the last year, the employment-to-population ratio has risen for the less educated.” It added that “for those with less than a high school degree and for high school graduates, the employment-to-population ratio rose by 0.4 percentage point and 0.9 percentage point, respectively.
Meanwhile, “the employment-to-population ratio for the more highly educated has been on a downward trend, with the ratio for those with a college degree 0.2% percentage point lower in June relative to a year ago.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 4, 2017.

Futures Flat As Payrolls Loom, Dollar Slide Continues

It took stocks only a few minute to “price in” the latest political shock out of Washington, and as of this morning Emini futures no longer care that Mueller has a grand jury, trading 0.08% in the green with European stocks and Asian shares all little changed as investors await the looming July jobs report, which is expected to show a slowdown in hiring from 222K to 180K but will have little impact on either the Fed’s thinking or the market.
Stocks, gold and most metals headed for a fourth week of gains on Friday, as fresh political woes for U. S. President Donald Trump and the prospect of a trade war with China kept the dollar depressed ahead of payrolls. The Bloomberg Dollar spot index inched lower for a third day, hovering near the weakest in 15 months, while cable rose to $1.3154, the euro hit a fresh two-and-a-half year high against the dollar and oil retreated.
Global stocks were just barely in the green this morning with the MSCI All-Country World Index rising less than 0.05%. In key overnight macro moves, the Aussie dollar gained against the greenback despite RBA warnings about currency’s strength, while the USD/JPY fell as much as 0.2% to 109.85, the weakest since June 15, before paring decline to 110.03.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 4, 2017.

Employment: Hmmm…

The screambox says….
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.3 percent, the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, and health care.
Oh look – we get people drunk, feed ’em unhealthy food and then suck up more of GDP in overpriced, monopolist “health care”.
In fact that’s been good for 327,000 “jobs” over the last year. You need look no further for what’s wrong with health care in America; nearly all of those jobs have never and never will provide one second of actual care to an actual person — they’re almost all administrators.
Remember, the usual bleat is that we don’t have enough doctors and nurses. Well if that is true then we have added 327,000 worthless “employees” over the last year that simply serve to vacuum all the money out of your wallet. We cannot address the cost of “health insurance” without addressing this issue, and doing so trashes the so-called “robust employment situation.”

This post was published at Market-Ticker on 2017-08-04.

July Payrolls Preview: Smooth Sailing But Watch Out For Cars

At 8:30am on Friday, the BLS is expected to announce that in July the US created 180K jobs, down from 222K in June though still in line with the 6-month average of 180K, with the biggest downside risk a slowdown in durable manufacturing payrolls as auto production slumped.
Sellside expectations:
UBS: 175K Barclays: 175K HSBC: 175K SocGen: 180K TD Securities: 190K Goldman Sachs: 190K Oxford Economics: 195K Fathom Consulting: 210K RBC: 220K The unemployment rate is expected to decline to cycle lows of 4.3% from 4.4%, although the main focus will be on average hourly earnings which are forecast to slow to 2.4% Y/Y from 2.5% last month, up 0.3% sequentially, for an indication whether wage growth is finally picking up (which judging by yesterday’s Amazon job fair which showed tens of thousands of people lining up desperate for minium wage jobs, is not happening).

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 4, 2017.

Should the Federal Reserve Be Doing the Nation’s Work with a Skeleton Crew?

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors is supposed to have a roster of seven Governors. It currently has four. Equally alarming, it lists just two members serving on each of its eight committees. One Fed Board Governor, Lael Brainard, is listed as one of the two members on six of the eight committees, or 75 percent of all committees. Governor Jerome Powell sits on five of the eight committees, or 63 percent of all committees.
The Fed’s Committee on Supervision and Regulation consists of just Powell and Brainard. And yet, this is what the Fed’s 2015 Annual Report describes as the institutions the Fed supervises:
4,922 Bank Holding Companies
442 Domestic Financial Holding Companies
470 Savings and Loan Holding Companies
839 State Member Banks
154 Foreign Banks Operating in the U. S.
Along with other entities per the graph above.

This post was published at Wall Street On Parade By Pam Martens and Russ Marte.