Crude Crashes, Bonds Bid, & Trannies Turmoil But VIX Vanquished To 9 Handle Again

With oil crashing, ‘hard’ economic data slumping, political chaos ahead of the debt ceiling debacle, and The Fed about to embark on something no central bank has ever done (let alone done successfully), it should be no surprise that earnings expectations are being ramped exponentially higher and The Dow (thanks in large part to Boeing recently) has exploded near 22,000 today for the first time ever making yet another new record high…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 1, 2017.

What a US$ Rebound Means for Gold

The decline in the US$ index in 2017 has been relentless. From a high of nearly 104 at the end of 2016, the US$ index has steadily declined to as low as 93.00. While this has certainly fueled the strength in precious metals, it has not been able to lift the sector as much as typically expected. That is because Gold’s performance relative to other assets has been weak and much weaker than in 2016. Friday Gold broke above key resistance of $1260/oz but it remains below its 2017 highs as the US$ index tests support amid a very oversold condition and negative sentiment. Simply put, Gold will have to prove itself in real terms if it is going to hold its ground or breakout as the US$ begins a likely bounce.
First, let’s take a look at Gold’s relative performance by comparing it in nominal terms to Gold priced in foreign currencies (FC) and Gold against equities. While Gold held the low $1200s and rallied back to $1275, Gold/FC recently broke support and tested its December 2016 low. The Gold/equities ratio is rallying from critical support. Recent lows in Gold/FC and Gold/equities need to hold if Gold is going to hold its ground also.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 1 August 2017.

WTI Tumbles After Surprise Crude Inventory Build

Following the ugliest day in a month for WTI (on OPEC production increase survey), bulls hopes rest on tonight’s API data confirming the recent trend of inventory draws but that was not to be. Against expectations of a 3.1mm draw, API reported crude inventories built by 1.78mm barrels last week. The kneejerk reaction was clear – down hard.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 1, 2017.


GOLD: $1272.95 UP $4.95
Silver: $16.79 UP 0 cent(s)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1269.00
silver: $16.74
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$5.01
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1267.05
For comex gold:
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 2946 FOR 294600 OZ (9.1632 TONNES)
For silver:
355,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 304 for 1,520,000 oz
Yesterday I wrote the following:
‘On yesterday’s (Friday’s) commentary I thought we were going to have a raid today. I noticed that the gold/silver equity shares sold off badly yesterday and that is a sure sign that an attack will occur. Probably our crooks were blindsided today with the failure of the Republicans to pass the healthcare bill as well as lousy GDP report, the all important wage inflation is non existent and the passing of new sanctions against Russia. And then we can couple all of this with the new launching of a ICBM that could hit New York and Boston…and yet with all of that news, the gain in gold was less than 10 dollars and silver, 11 cents. However today again, the gold/silver equity shares fell off badly on closing and we have only Monday morning for options expiry. There has never been any time during any options expiry that the crooks have not generated a raid. So if they fail to raid on Monday, they are losing control as demand is far outstripping supply in our precious metals.
it now looks like the boys have lost control of the gold/silver market/for sure silver with today’s attempted raid and failure. The bankers have decided to take their anger by hitting on the gold/silver equity shares.

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on August 1, 2017.

US Construction Spending Just Collapsed

Headline growth in US construction spending collapsed in July to just 1.6% YoY – the weakest since 2011.
As Reuters reports, U. S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in June as investment in public projects recorded its biggest drop since March 2002. The Commerce Department said on Tuesday that construction spending tumbled 1.3 percent to $1.21 trillion – the lowest level since September 2016 – drastically missing economists’ estimates of a 0.4% increase.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 1, 2017.

The United States Has Become A Nation Of Sheeple

You can either follow the herd of you can decide to find your own path. One of the things that greatly frustrates me is that so many Americans allow other people to do their thinking for them. We have become a nation of sheeple, and the vast majority of the shepherds that we are relying on for guidance are frauds and imposters. The blind are leading the blind, and we are slowly but surely committing national suicide. If a lot more of us don’t start to learn to think for ourselves, I fear that the vast majority of the population will never wake up until it is far too late.
Let me ask you a very simple question.
What is on your mind today?
If you are not preoccupied with work or with family matters, then you are probably thinking about something that you have been fed through the mainstream media. Just think about this for a few moments. When you are sitting around the dinner table or you are chatting with someone at work, what do you tend to talk about? If you are like most people, many of your conversations will be about something that you saw on the news, a new movie that you just watched, or a sporting event that has just happened.
Most of the time, we believe that certain things are important because someone else has told us that they are important.
And the most prominent voices of all are the six gigantic media corporations that control about 90 percent of the news, information and entertainment that we get through our televisions. I know that statistic is a bit hard to believe, so let me share a little excerpt from a fact checking website called…

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on August 1st, 2017.

US Personal Savings Rate Falls To -24% YoY In June (Revision Wipes Out $226 Billion In Savings)

On top of today’s news that inflation (as measured by Core PCE Price Growth) is flat at 1.5% YoY, the same BEA report shows that the Personal Savings Rate in the USA fell to -24% YoY.

At least Personal Income growth is 2.6% YoY.
Bear in mind that the estimates released today reflect the results of the annual update of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) in conjunction with preliminary estimates for June 2017. The update covers the most recent 3 years and the first 5 months
of 2017.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on August 1, 2017.

Greenspan Fears Imminent Stagflationary Slump, Warns The Bubble Is In Bonds Not Stocks

Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan blasphemously warned a year ago of an “imminent crisis”:
“This is the worst period, I recall since I’ve been in public service. There’s nothing like it, including the crisis – remember October 19th, 1987, when the Dow went down by a record amount 23 percent? That I thought was the bottom of all potential problems. This has a corrosive effect that will not go away. I’d love to find something positive to say.”
Adding that fundamentally it is not so much an issue of immigration, or even economics, but unsustainable welfare spending, or as Greenspan puts it, “entitlements.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 1, 2017.

Netflix Is Spending Twice As Much As Amazon On Content

When it comes to Netflix and its stratospheric (forward) valuation, the thesis is simple: the company is (so far) the undisputed leader in the arena of internet streaming. As the LA Times summarizes, the global streaming giant today boasts impressive stats: 104 million subscribers worldwide, up 25% from last year and almost quadruple from five years ago. Its series and movies account for more than a third of all prime-time download Internet traffic in North America. Its more than 50 original shows garnered 91 Emmy Award nominations this year, second only to premium cable service HBO.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 1, 2017.

Investors Redeem Half Of Paul Tudor Jones’ Main Fund In Past Year

The woes for hedge funds continued in the second quarter, and nowhere more so than among the macro fund community, which posted its worst first half since 2013, losing 0.7% , and according to Hedge Fund Research have returned just 1% annually in the past five years, in an investing world which no longer makes much sense courtesy of central bank intervention. Most impacted by this revulsion against the active investing community has been none other than Paul Tudor Jones, whose investors are increasingly deserting him according to Bloomberg, which reports today that clients yanked 15% of their assets from his main BVI fund in the second quarter, leaving AUM at just $3.6 billion, roughly half from a year ago.
Jones, whose BVI Global Fund is down 1.9% through July 21, has been taking aggressive steps to revive his firm, including reducing fees and headcount. As revenue at Tudor declined, Jones last month sold the firm’s 43-acre Greenwich, Connecticut, headquarters’ property. Tudor then said it plans to move to a location in lower Fairfield County that’s more convenient to New York City, where the firm has offices. It is probably also cheaper. One year ago, Jones also dismissed 15% of his employees. He has told clients he will manage a larger chunk of their money and has encouraged his portfolio managers to take more risk. Jones has also leaned on quantitative tools to help with trading, including introducing technology that replicates the bets of his best managers.
Finally, Tudor has this year reduced its management fee to between 1.75% and 2.25% while taking a 20% cut in profits, after decades of being one of the most expensive hedge funds. The firm had once charged management fees as high as 4% for some clients, and a performance fee of as much as 27% for others, Bloomberg reports.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 1, 2017.

How Congress Could Make the Fed Even Worse for the U.S. Economy

If there’s one thing worse for the U. S. economy than the Federal Reserve, it’s Congress.
And right now, legislators are reaching for control over the central bank…
On June 8, the House of Representatives passed the Financial CHOICE Act, a bill that promises to repeal many regulatory banking rules and – critically – would grant Congress control over the Federal Reserve.
Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald has been following these developments closely, and he knows the truth:
‘Congress has never ever understood how to create growth, but they’re exceptionally good at stifling it,’ Keith said in a June 14 interview with Money Morning.
Check out what powers the Financial CHOICE Act would grant Congress – and why our legislators shouldn’t be trusted with the keys to the economy…
Congressional Control Over the Fed Would Hurt Americans
Putting Congress in charge of monetary policy would be ‘an exercise in dysfunctional economics,’ Keith said.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on August 1, 2017.

Goldman Issues First Warning On Q3 Results

Remember what Goldman said when it reported atrocious earnings two weeks ago, when it revealed that FICC revenues plunged by 40%? Here is a reminder:
“During the quarter, Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities Client Execution operated in a challenging environment characterized by low levels of volatility, low client activity and generally difficult market-making conditions… During the quarter, Equities operated in an environment characterized by generally higher global equity prices, while volatility levels remained low.”

Spot the common theme? Yup: lack of volatility.
Fast forward to today when Goldman became the first bank to warn that Q3 is shaping up to be a continuation of Q2. This is what its CFO Chavez said moments ago, via Reuters:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 1, 2017.

2017 Bull Market:Testing the Boundaries of History, Has TIME Run Out?

For the U. S. Equity market, the advance in recent days to yet another string of new all-time highs is outwardly so impressive that it makes it difficult for many market observers to even question the robust nature of the stock market. Through last Thursday, for example, the NASDAQ Composite had seen 14 of the last 16 days with a positive close. As winning streaks go, that kind of one-sided market action is a fairly rare phenomenon. For the NASDAQ Composite, this has only happened 15 times in its 46-year history. With the likes of Facebook and Amazon and other FANGS seemingly on an unending roll, it’s enough to make one wonder whether stocks will ever go down again?
Yet it is precisely this kind of one-sided feeling that often creates and denotes the presence of a major market turn. In his recent Weekly Technical Update, veteran technician James E. Welsh zeroes in on this mentality:
‘Will Stocks Ever . . . If you type ‘Will stocks ever’ into your browser, Google will auto-fill this question with ‘go down again’. This is the mentality that results when the S&P trades beyond 2 standard deviations as it has in 2017 and discussed last week. Since 1928 (89 years) the S&P has averaged a decline of 11.2% in the first half of the year. The largest decline in the S&P has been 2.9% in 2017, about one quarter of the average and the second lowest ever. The S&P has not experienced a decline of 5% in more than a year.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 08/01/2017.

Precious Metals Year-To-Date Trading Ranges, And Stunning Decline in the Dollar Index

‘If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn’t. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn’t be. And what it wouldn’t be, it would. You see?’
Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass
The Year-To-Date trading range in gold is particularly well-defined, from about 1200 to 1300.
Silver has a less well-defined range, with a secondary declining trend.
The Dollar has just done a swan dive as measured in the DX index.
I would suggest that a breakout in gold will be characterized by a sustained price move above 1300 that manages to hold its ground and advance to take out 1350.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 01 AUGUST 2017.

These Were The Best Performing Assets In July And YTD

July was a great month for virtually all asset classes (at least those tracked by Deutsche Bank) with the notable exception of what, which tumbled after surging previously.
As DB’s Jim Reid writes, there was strong performance for most assets in the bank’s sample as various market volatility measures trended lower over the past month to touch new all-time lows. 33 out of 39 assets posted positive total returns in local currency terms while all assets except for one (wheat) saw positive returns in USD terms after a tough month for the Greenback (-2.9%). In summary commodities and equities make up the top of both the local currency and USD performance tables while European assets (equities and government bonds) crowd at the bottom of the LC performance table. However the strong performance of the Euro (and USD weakness more generally) lifted most European assets into more positive territory in USD terms. Thus in USD terms the worst performers were mostly US credit and treasuries, rounded out by two relatively underperforming agricultural commodities in Corn (+0.1%) and Wheat (-7%).
In terms of the key movers on the month, oil was one of the strongest performers as it led all assets in local currency terms (WTI +9%; Brent: +8%). It should be noted that nearly all of the gains came at the tail end of the month following news of Saudi Arabia’s pledge to reduce crude exports in August. Elsewhere the Bovespa (+11%) and FTSE MIB (+8%) matched gains in oil to top the USD table following a rally in the underlying equities (Bovespa LC: +5%; FTSE MIB LC: +5%) and strong performance in their respective currencies (BRL +6%; EUR +3%). Broader EM equities also saw strong performance in general (MSCI EM: +6%). An important dynamic to note is the fact that despite the poor performance of broader European assets in LC terms (and middling performance in USD terms), European banks actually saw strong returns on the month with gains of +3% in LC terms and over +6% in USD terms as Euro area economic momentum continues to hold strong and Eurozone government bond yields have risen following Draghi’s speech at Sintra.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Aug 1, 2017.

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts – Gtterdmmerung

There was an entry earlier today here showing the trading ranges this year in gold and silver, and the stunning decline in the US Dollar Index.
The markets are winding for a move. I am not sure about stocks, but a large decline this fall would not be a surprise.
As for gold and silver, the capping this year is obvious. Let’s see if they can maintain it. They will, until they cannot. And then we will see a reckoning of risks.

This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 01 AUGUST 2017.