Today’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 144.8, up from the previous week. Year-over-year the four-week moving average of the indicator is now at 4.99%, down from 5.12% last week. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 2.6, up from the previous week.
“All Signs Point to a Cyclical Slowdown in Inflation”
ECRI’s most recent headline article states that their US Future Inflation Guage indicator is signaling a downturn in inflation. They claim that using the Phillips curve does not give a full picture of cyclical upturns and downturns. Rather than use the Phillips curve or extrapolate inflation data, ECRI says their Future Inflation Guage is a better indicator and has correctly anticipated the late 1990s growth without inflation and last year’s reflation trade.
This post was published at FinancialSense on 07/24/2017.