Did the Fed Just Ring a Bell At the Top?

Very few investors caught on to it, but a few weeks ago the Fed made its single largest announcement in eight years.
First let me provide some context.
For eight years now, the Fed has propped up the stock market. In terms of formal monetary policy the Fed has:
Kept interest rates at ZERO for seven years making money virtually free and forcing investors into stocks and junk bonds in search of yield.
Engaged in over $3.5 TRILLION in Quantitative Easing or QE, providing an amount of liquidity to the US financial system that is greater than the GDP of Germany.
In terms of informal monetary policy, the Fed has consistently engaged in verbal intervention any time stocks came in danger of breaking down.
For eight years, ANY time stocks began to break through a critical level of support a Fed official appeared to issue a statement about future stimulus or maintaining its accommodative monetary policies.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 19 July 2017.

Did the City of London Just Press the Panic Button on Brexit?

Oh the irony: EU capitals are trying to attract the very institutions that caused some of the worst financial scandals of the last ten years.
In a sign of growing desperation, the City of London Corporation, the enigmatic city within the city that serves as the ultimate bastion of privilege in the UK, is now trying to appeal to brute populist sentiment to defend its position as the world’s most important financial center.
In a memo to the British Treasury, MPs, and financial institutions, the City’s Brexit envoy to the EU, Jeremy Browne, bemoaned that the French are pushing for the most damaging Brexit possible, even if France doesn’t directly benefit. The memo was duly leaked to one of the UK’s most anti-EU newspapers, The Daily Mail:
Browne’s recent meeting at the Banque de France was the worst he had had ‘anywhere in the EU’. The French, he said, ‘are crystal clear about their objectives: the weakening of Britain and the ongoing degradation of the City of London’ and plotting to ‘actively disrupt and destroy’ the UK’s financial sector when Britain leaves the EU.

This post was published at Wolf Street by Don Quijones ‘ Jul 19, 2017.


GOLD: $1242.50 UP $0.50
Silver: $16.33 UP 4 cent(s)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1241.00
silver: $16.28
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$8.61
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1239.85
For comex gold:
For silver:
160,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 2922 for 14,610,000 oz

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on July 19, 2017.

Washington D.C. Is Essentially Just A Gigantic Money Machine

If you have ever wondered why our leaders in Washington D. C. seem to act so strangely, the truth is that it almost always comes down to just one thing. It has been said that ‘money makes the world go round’, and that is definitely true in Washington. This year the federal government will spend more than 4 trillion dollars, and that represents well over one-fifth of our national GDP. With so much money coming in and so much money going out, the stakes are incredibly high, and that is why so much money is poured into political campaigns on the national level.
And it shouldn’t surprise anyone that those that live the closest to this gigantic money machine have benefited greatly. Forbes just released their brand new rankings for 2017, and they found that five out of the top 10 wealthiest counties in the entire country are suburbs of Washington D. C….
Virginia’s Loudoun County holds the title of the nation’s richest county with a median household income of $125,900. While nearly 10,000 residents commute to the District, according to Forbes, about 11,700 businesses employ 161,000 county residents, with Dulles International Airport, Loudoun County Public Schools and the Department of Homeland Security leading that charge.
The nearby city of Falls Church, Fairfax and Arlington counties in Virginia and Howard County in Maryland also lead the nation based on wealth.

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on July 19th, 2017.

The US Dollar Falls To New Lows, And So Do The Excuses To Explain It

The DXY Index, which is widely cited in the financial press as the “Dollar” or “US Dollar,” has seen a correction that began in January of this year after topping at the 103.82 level, and has continued into this week’s (Tues July 18) low, which came in at 94.48. This represents a move of just under 9%, which in the currency markets is not a small move.
Over this time period and since the 103.82 high was made, the DXY Index has been following a fairly clear pattern down off of that high and into current levels. In fact, for the past several months we have been following this pattern as it continued to follow through, hitting most of the expected Fibonacci levels into the July 18 low. Currently, the DXY is sitting on both the 176.4 Fibonacci extension of the initial move down off of the January highs and just under the 200 Fibonacci extension of the move down off of the April highs.
Additionally, we do now have what could be considered a completed three-wave pattern off of the January highs in addition to several other technical indicators signaling that we may be getting close to at least a local bottom in the DXY.
I have recently been writing about the so called “bombshell” news events that the financial press and media pundits love to assign to market moves. We have seen these “bombshell” events run the gamut from Brexit to Trump’s surprise election to Russia meddling in the US election. Most recently, we had the release of emails from Donald Trump Jr. in regards to a meeting that he had with Russian nationals during the Campaign. I discussed how this media “bomb” turned out to be yet another dud as far as the financial markets were concerned in the article I wrote on the Dow on July 18.
Tuesday’s “bombshell” news that was all over the financial press today was that US Dollar was down because the Republicans were unable to be able to pass their healthcare bill, thus causing the Dollar to move lower. Of course, the question that comes to mind on this news is: What exactly does the Republicans not passing a healthcare bill have to do with the value of the US Dollar?

This post was published at GoldSeek on 19 July 2017.

Breslow: “Normal, Violent Or Extreme Political Events Are Now Taken To Be Fully Tradable Affairs”

Taking a break from his “big picture” macro observations, and – at least recently – bashing of complacent traders, algos and central planning, overnight Bloomberg’s macro commentator focused on the FX market in general, and why he believes it is the “best” market for those “politically bent”, noting five particular reasons for his adoration of FX trading:
everything is fair game: “in today’s world there’s nothing local about almost any aspect of the process” and FX is the only place where one can short with impunity“ there are no negative connotations associated with shorting: “Every trade involves doing so. You get to attack things without someone questioning your couth. After the U. K. referendum the currency got killed on perceived relative value, but that was all right because the FTSE did just fine. You didn’t see the BOE bemoan the lower pound” so simple, Mrs Watanabe can do it: “In equities and bonds it’s best to first ask how an individual market works and what paperwork is needed. In FX it’s point and click and your prime broker takes care of everything else” all that matters is speed: “It’s in the DNA of FX traders to feast on a headline and then ask what it’s made of. Speed is of the essence.“ and, best of all, you get to trade first, ask questions later: “currencies the perfect vehicle to get involved in issues one may or may not actually know anything about.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 19, 2017.

The True Economy Is Being Exposed & Soon Everyone Learn How Bad It Really Is – Episode 1336a

The following video was published by X22Report on Jul 19, 2017
IMF reports that the current problems with Greece are not going away the debt is not sustainable. Harley Davidson is spiraling out of control, sales are crashing. IBM uses accounting trickery to make the company look like it is doing better than it really is. Many companies are now using this account trick to fudge the numbers. Housing starts, permits rebound, which means most of these starts and permits will be revised as people cancel the homes. Russia is pushing the for a digital economy including block-chain technology. The economy is rapidly breaking apart and we are now seeing signs of how bad it really is.

Gold Rebounds From Overnight Mini-Flash-Crash

Around 4amET, someone decided it was the perfect time to dump around half a billion dollars worth of notional gold into the futures markets.
The biggest single flush hit at 357amET with $228mm notional (around 1800 contracts) flushed to break below the 200DMA..
This ripped the precious metal’s price back to yesterday’s lows before it was quickly bid back up by yet more machines.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 19, 2017.

Chapter 39: Price Controls

Christian Economics: Teacher’s Edition
‘Bad, bad,’ says the buyer, but when he goes away, then he boasts (Proverbs 20:14).
AnalysisEveryone wants to buy cheaper. Everyone is looking for a better deal. If I can buy it for less, I retain more of my money. More money is better than less money. Furthermore, there is the modern adaption of Ben Franklin’s aphorism: ‘A penny saved is up to 1.4 cents earned, depending on your tax bracket.’
In modern economies, most sales are by computerized bar codes. It is not possible to save money by negotiating with the person at the check-out register. Prices and quantities are computerized. The person at the check-out register cannot modify prices. Everything is set up to let buyers go through the line rapidly.
There are still products that are still sold by negotiation. Automobiles are sold this way. So is most real estate. But where items are all the same, unlike real estate, they are usually sold without any negotiating.
This is a modern development. Throughout most of history and in most societies, buyers and sellers negotiated prices and the terms of sale if credit was involved. They negotiated face to face. There was no court to enforce a law that said negotiations could not involve deception. There was no such law. Everyone assumed that there would be verbal deception. It is a mark of capitalism’s mass market sales that deception has become a matter of court cases.
The proverb provides an example of verbal deception: ‘Bad, bad.’ The buyer is trying to negotiate a lower price. He is offering a reason why he is unwilling to pay the seller’s initial asking price. There is an advertising strategy called ‘reasons why’ selling. This verse tells us that there is a comparable strategy for buying. This proverb tells us what we already know: a person may say ‘bad, bad’ when he is thinking: ‘Good, good . . . and even better if I can get it at a lower price.’ Even when he can’t, and he pays the asking price, he brags to others that he got a terrific deal. What he said in one setting is the opposite of what he said in another setting.

This post was published at Gary North on July 18, 2017.

Thoughts On Gold

From Jim Richards’ Strategic Intelligence:
‘Russia and China are well-positioned to execute the greatest gold short squeeze in history. Of course, they have no interest in doing so right now because both are still buyers who favor low prices. At some point, they will flip to hoarders who favor high prices, but not yet.’
From Hugo Salinas Price:
‘The present monetary system of the world, based on the dollar, is on its death-bed. A fiat currency – such as the dollar – cannot be replaced by another fiat currency, he explains. Therefore the world will necessarily have to take up [precious metals] as the world’s money.’
************* From Steven Warrenfeltz of http://www.free-bullion-investment-guide.com
Gold and Silver Are Moving Back Up
GOLD (Warrenfeltz comments)
Last week, after the dust settled from gold’s price drop, a ‘falling expanding wedge’ formed in gold’s price chart (below).
All falling wedges are positive technical patterns, however for gold to confirm the pattern it will need to break above the upper resistance trend-line of the wedge.
In addition, gold’s MACD (lower indicator) is showing that its direction is about to change from negative to positive, so we should continue to see gold climb this week, but some profit taking is also expected as it moves up.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 19 July 2017.

Global Stocks Hit Record High, Set For Longest Winning Streak Since 2015

In what has been a less exciting session than the previous two, the euro retraced some recent gains as traders grew concerned they may have overestimated the ECB’s hawkish bias ahead of Thursday’s rate decision; in turn the dollar edged higher after the collapse of the GOP healthcare bill sent it to the lowest since September on Tuesday.
Not even Citi could infuse any excitement in the overnight session, which its called “Purgatorial”:
Markets are more or less flat so far today as we face a temporary dearth of data and speakers. USD remains weak, but there has been no real excuse to continue selling yet. The ECB and the BoJ are both up tomorrow and any potential moves may be linked to pre-positioning/squaring rather than anything that today may offer us…
There is little of note this afternoon that could tickle the fancy of even the most excitable FX watcher – We are staring into the abyss… and DoE inventories are staring right back. As oil is flat so far today, that print could provoke a small twitch. Elsewhere, we get US housing starts and Canadian manufacturing shipments…
In Dante’s inferno, Purgatorio immediately precedes Paradiso. Fingers’ firmly crossed.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 19, 2017.

Another Former $2-Billion Startup Gets Rolled Up

Investors who bought the hype are left holding the bag.
Ad-buying software company Rocket Fuel – ‘a predictive marketing platform,’ it calls itself – announced on Tuesday that it was acquired for $2.60 a share. Including the assumption of debt, it makes for a deal value of $145 million. Down from $2 billion at its peak one month after the IPO.
The Silicon Valley startup went public in September 2013 at $29 a share. Its shares soared 93% on their first day, closing at $56.10. A month later, shares hit $66.43, which gave the company its peak market value of about $2 billion.
This was the period when ‘ad tech’ was the latest Silicon Valley fad that sucked billions of dollars out of investors’ pockets – much like ‘fin tech’ these days. Not much later, reality began to set in and shares headed south. The company lost money relentlessly. In 2015, the layoffs started. The whole sector crashed to reality. Today, after the buyout offer, its shares trade at $2.64, or 91% below the IPO price, and 96% below their peak.
Rocket Fuel is being acquired by Sizmek Inc., a previously public company once known as Digital Generation that itself was acquired in August last year by private equity firm Vector Capital for $122 million. Over the past two years, Sizmek has been busy acquiring ad tech firms, and now with Vector Capital’s backing, it adds another one. This is turning into a rollup.

This post was published at Wolf Street on Jul 19, 2017.

Gold and Silver Market Morning: July 19 2017 – Gold and silver markets continue to climb but the pace may slow!

Gold Today – New York closed yesterday at $1,242.10. Londonopened at $1,239.00 today.
Overall the dollar was stronger against global currencies, early today. Before London’s opening:
– The $: was stronger at $1.1532 after yesterday’s $1.1559: 1.
– The Dollar index was slightly stronger at 94.77 after yesterday’s94.64.
– The Yen was stronger at 111.94 after yesterday’s 112.44:$1.
– The Yuan was weaker at 6.7549 after yesterday’s 6.7481: $1.
– The Pound Sterling was slightly stronger at $1.3033 afteryesterday’s $1.3026: 1.
Yuan Gold Fix
New York closed $2.78 lower than Shanghai’s close yesterday, with London opening today at a discount to Shanghai’s trading today of $8.22, a slightly widening discount to Shanghai. But London is being pulled up by Shanghai. Chinese demand is sufficient to lift prices there, despite the slower rise in the gold price in London. This bodes well for more rises in London and New York.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 19 July 2017.

The Plural of Anecdotes Is Beige

As noted before, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book collection of local bank district anecdotes are fascinating for all the wrong reasons. What is revealed is not the state of the economy, but rather the state of how policymakers perceive or often wish the economy was at various points. If the 2007 Beige Books are a collective case study in denial, those in 2008 are of borderline delusion.
Everything had by summer 2008 turned or rolled over, including oil prices and, relatedly, Chinese currency appreciation. The global economy did, too, but you wouldn’t really know it from the Beige Book. The version from September 3, 2008, does not once include the word ‘recession.’ It does, however, mention the word ‘slow’ (or one of its semantic derivations like ‘slowing’ or ‘slower’) 62 times.
The same is true for the Beige Book published on October 15, 2008, already after the initial panic had concluded. The word ‘slow’ appears 63 times, while again not a single mention of ‘recession.’ Finally, the word shows up just once in the December 3, 2008, Beige Book, but only in reference to the energy sector in the 11th (Dallas) District, talking about ‘recession-reduced industrial loads’ pertaining to just natural gas production.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on July 19, 2017.

Collapse of Western Civilization | Jim Rogers

The following video was published by FinanceAndLiberty.com on Jul 19, 2017
Debt is higher than ever. Therefore, this crisis ‘will be worse than anything in our lifetime,’ Rogers predicts. Governments, countries, and banks will fail, he says.
How should we prepare? ‘If you start investing in things you don’t know about, I assure you you’re going to have real problems when the situation goes bad, ‘ Rogers warns, ‘Stay with what you know.’ He expects agriculture to do well going forward. In the short run, he in is bullish on the U. S. Dollar and bearish on precious metals. But in the long run, he sees confidence being eroded in the Dollar, and more movement into gold and silver.
Rogers expects governments to restrict the use of gold and silver when the crisis hits.

Trade War Games

Comparative Advantage
Consequential and Contentious
What Would Steel Tariffs Really Mean?
Buy American
Tit for Tat
Grand Lake Stream, Colorado (?), and Lisbon
‘We’re already in a trade war with China. The problem is we’ve not been fighting back.’
– Peter Navarro
‘The battle for Helm’s Deep is over. The battle for Middle Earth is about to begin.’
– Gandalf the White
This letter should find you buckled in for the turbulence I described last week. If not, I hope this one convinces you. The storm is seven days closer now. There are times when normality slips out of reach, and I believe we are approaching such a time.
I have lived through recessions and bear markets; I know what they look like. I wish I could forget what they feel like. They don’t come out of nowhere; there are always warning signs. Many investors choose to ignore those signs; I choose not to. I hope you make the same choice.
The monster can come from different directions. Imagine the horror movie where the doomed victim knows the creature is out there. He hears its growls and desperately looks all around for their source. Then the camera pans left and you see the darned thing sneaking up on him from behind. [Cut, add scream, fade to black.]

This post was published at Mauldin Economics on JULY 19, 2017.

Asian Metals Market Update: July-19-2017

The next two days are very crucial for all metals and energies. Gold, silver, copper and nickel are bullish but need to break key resistances for another wave of rise. If gold, silver, copper and nickel do not break key resistances then there can be a sell off. Zinc and lead are testing key short term support. Either zinc and lead hold those key supports or else there will be a sell off. Crude oil needs to break and trade over $49.00 this week to prevent short sellers from getting the upper hand. Natural gas is bullish but once again like bullion, they need to break key resistances for another wave of rise.
Central bank currency wars are not over yet. Tomorrow’s European central bank meeting will be relevant only with statement directing at altering the current strengthening trend of the euro.
Bitcoins – current price $2267.00
Trend is bullish. Bitcoin can rise to $2370 and $2646 as long as it trades over $2224. Sellers will be there below $2224 to $2044 and $1882. Key support till Friday is at $2044.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 19 July 2017.