Picking Great Gold Stocks 2

One of the primary keys to success in investment and speculation is picking the right stocks to trade. That’s no mean feat, as it takes great effort, expertise, and time to winnow the whole field down to the likely winners with the best fundamentals. Although deeply out of favor now in the summer doldrums, the small contrarian gold-stock sector has generated truly epic gains for investors and speculators over the years.
I’ve been in the financial-newsletter business for 17 years now, after founding my company Zeal LLC way back in early 2000. I needed to do extensive markets and individual-stocks research to support my own personal speculation and investment, so I figured why not share it so others can benefit as well. Since then I’ve researched and written 765 web essays, 204 monthly newsletters, and 748 weekly newsletters.
The primary mission of my research has always been to drive profitable real-world trading. If financial-market research doesn’t actually help multiply wealth, why even bother? The stock trades resulting from these 17 years of hard work were all recommended in real-time in our newsletters as the buys and sells were actually made. Our cumulative realized stock-trade count is now up to 357 in our monthly and 571 in our weekly.
928 real-world stock trades fully disclosed to, fully accountable to, and fully auditable by our subscribers over such a long span of time has been an unparalleled learning experience. Like all speculators we won some and lost some, but our overall track record is outstanding. All 928 Zeal newsletter stock trades ever closed, including all losers, have averaged impressive annualized realized gains of +22.0% since 2001!
Since our first newsletter was published on August 1st, 2000, the compound annual rate of return of the benchmark S&P 500 has only been 3.1%. The S&P 500’s absolute return over that long intervening secular span is 67.6%. But 22.0% compounded annually since then equates to a radically-better 2903.4% return. There’s no doubt that studied stock picking and trade timing can vastly outperform the indexes!

This post was published at ZEAL LLC on July 14, 2017.

The CBO Scores President Trump’s Proposed Budget

The Congressional Budget Office has scored President Trump’s first budget proposal. In the report, the CBO finds significant reductions in the US government’s annual budget deficits compared to their baseline estimates, which reflect their projections of how those deficits would have grown if the spending policies of the previous Obama administration were allowed to continue on autopilot.
Here’s how the CBO’s analysts summarized the effects of President Trump’s proposals on the budget:
Compared with CBO’s baseline projections, the deficit under the President’s proposals would be slightly larger in 2018, about the same in 2019, and smaller in each year between 2020 and 2027, according to CBO and JCT’s estimates (see Figure 1). The cumulative deficit from 2018 through 2027 would be reduced by $3.3 trillion from the $10.1 trillion in CBO’s baseline….
As a result of those smaller deficits, debt held by the public would also be lower under the President’s proposals than under current law. Federal debt held by the public would equal 77 percent of GDP this year and would hover around 80 percent for most of the 10-year period. That ratio would be lower – about 11 percentage points of GDP lower by 2027 – than the amounts projected in the baseline (see Figure 2).

This post was published at FinancialSense on 07/14/2017.

Consumer Prices Disappoint For 4th Month In A Row – Weakest Since Jan 2015

For the 4th month in a row, CPI missed expectations (unchanged MoM vs expectations of a modest 0.1% rise).
Across the board consumer price rises disappointed economists’ guesses with Core CPI tumbling to just 1.7% YoY – the lowest since Jan 2015…
Energy prices fell 1.6% MoM and were the biggest drag on CPI; Apparel and Transportation (airfares) also fell MoM.
The last time CPI followed this trajectory, Bernanke unleashed QE-infinity…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 14, 2017.

Fun on Friday: You Can Literally Wrap Yourself in Gold

How would you like to wrap yourself in gold?
I mean literally wrap yourself in gold.
You can do it if you check into the Seven Stars Ottagono Presidential Suite at the TownHouse Galleria, a 5-star luxury hotel in Milan. The room features specially crafted 24-carat gold sheets.
You’ll sleep like a baby wrapped in these golden sheets designed by Milanese jeweler Federico Buccellati. Unless of course you end up with insomnia worrying about how much money you just plunked for a hotel room.
Piana Clerico fabricates the golden sheets. The artisan manufacturer was founded in Milan in 1582. The Hong Kong Tatler tells us more about how these luxurious sheets are made.
The Piana family has a long-respected tradition for weaving gorgeous woolen textiles using precious materials and fibers, including gold yarn, cashmere, and silk. To make the sheets, Piana wove together its signature yarn, with a large content of 24-carat gold, accounting for 40% of the finished product. The shimmering sheets are a work of art – picture floral details and minute stitching, which glitters as natural light spills from the balcony into the bedroom.’

This post was published at Schiffgold on JULY 14, 2017.

US Consumers Reeling: Core Retail Sales Post Weakest Growth In Over Three Years

This is not the data the Fed was looking for: after the 4th consecutive miss in CPI data, moments ago the Census Bureau also reported June retail sales which was unexpectedly poor, missing across the board once again, and judging by the surge in bonds, suggests that the Fed’s rate hike intentions and narrative is now on indefinite hold.
The details, as shown below, missed in every category:
Retail sales down -0.2%, Exp. +0.2% after falling 0.1% in May Retail ex-autos -0.2%, Exp. +0.2% Retail sales ex-autos and gas -0.1%, Exp. 0.4% Retail sales control group -0.1%, Exp. +0.3%

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 14, 2017.

Speculators Sour On Gold And silver, Which Means The Bottom Is Near

The stars – in the form of smart and dumb money futures contract positions – have once again lined up favorably for precious metals. Here are those positions for gold and silver as of Tuesday the 4th. Notice that speculators (the dumb money) got a lot less optimistic – that is, less long and more short – while the commercials (the smart money) got much less pessimistic. The closer each group gets to neutral, where their longs and shorts are about equal, the greater the likelihood that metals prices will rise in the subsequent six or so months.

This post was published at DollarCollapse on July 13, 2017.

Global Shares Hit Another Record High In Lethargic Session Ahead Of US Data Deluge

It was another painfully low-volume overnight session, which however did not prevent global stocks from hitting another record highs, capping their best week in over two months as the dollar stayed close to nine-month lows following Yellen’s dovish retreat in which she noted caution on persistently low inflation (hence today’s CPI print will be especially important) as odds of future rate hikes in 2017 and 2018 dropped.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 14, 2017.

Asian Metals Market Update: July-14-2017

Lack of new news of Trump and Russia resulted in the fall in gold and silver prices. Movement of gold prices will be dependent on Trump-Russia connection news. Traders will start taking positions for the FOMC meet on 26th July after the release of today’s CPI numbers and Retail sales numbers. Next week only US housing numbers are there and it will not have any sustaining effect.
Currency markets movement will affect bullion prices. I am more concerned over movement in the UK pound. If the UK pound falls this quarter, then I see renewed safe haven demand not just from the UK but from all across Europe. A crash in the cable (if any) can result in a renewed short term bull rally in gold to $1376. However right now there is no big hype to invest in gold despite prices being near $1200.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 14 July 2017.

The Technical Failure That Could Clear The Oil Glut In A Matter Of Weeks

OPEC exports have come under pressure this week from technical threats to oil fields, with Saudi Arabia’s Manifa problems grabbing the headlines.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, while addressing the World Petroleum Congress in Istanbul, stated that the outlook for oil supplies is ‘increasingly worrying’, due to a loss of $1 trillion ($1000 billion) in investments last year. The skepticism shown by a majority of financial analysts and oil commentators about the real threat to global oil (and gas) production volumes was countered by the news that the production at Saudi Aramco’s main offshore oil field, Manifa, has been hit by technical problems. News sources reported that the output from Saudi Aramco’s massive Manifa oilfield has been hit by a technical problem.
The impact of this possible technical mishap is not to be underestimated. Aramco’s Manifa is one of its biggest oilfields, with a targeted production capacity of around 900,000 bpd, to be brought onstream in two phases. At present, the main issue being reported on is that there has been corrosion of the water injection system, which is used to keep pressure in the reservoir. No facts have emerged about the total impact on the Manifa production capacity, but unnamed sources are already quoting ‘millions of dollars’ of losses. The current reports are not really worrying, as corrosion control in a water injection system is only a technical challenge. Maintenance of the field is expected, resulting in a shut-down of production – something that has been confirmed by Sadad Al Husseini, former VP Aramco. If the all production needs to be shut-down, Saudi Aramco’s overall production capacity will be cut by 900,000bpd.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 14, 2017.

Spot Gold Jumps as US Retail Sales + Inflation Hit Dollar, Risk of ‘Bar Selling’ on Japan’s 0% JGB Plan

Spot gold prices jumped near 2-week highs at $1232 per ounce Friday lunchtime in London as weak US retail sales and inflation data saw the Dollar drop hard on the forex market.
Consumer prices rose 1.6% in July from a year earlier, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said – the weakest inflation since before Donald Trump won the presidential election last November – while retail sales fell for a second month running, also defying analyst forecasts.
The Euro jumped half-a-cent towards this week’s 2-month highs versus the US currency, while the Japanese Yen jumped to a 2% gain for this week at its strongest level since 3 July.
The spot gold price outpaced them both, however, rising to a weekly gain for Eurozone and Japanese investors and adding 0.6% from last Friday against the British Pound.
Major government bond prices jumped having weakened badly since the US Federal Reserve raised Dollar interest rates to a ceiling of 1.25% this time last month.
That pushed bond yields sharply lower across the board, with 10-year US Treasurys offering its lowest rate so far in July at 2.28%.

This post was published at FinancialSense on 07/14/2017.

JPM Beats Boosted By Lending Despite Trading Miss As FICC, Sales & Trading Revenues Tumble

Launching Q2 earnings season, moments ago JPM reported Q2 an adjusted record Net Income of $7.03 billion and EPS of $1.82, which however included an 11 cent legal benefit, beating expectations $1.57 and 27 cents higher than a year ago, on “managed” revenue of $26.4BN, beating consensus expectations of $25.1BN.
JPM reported average core loans up 8% Y/Y with net interest income also 8% higher to $12.5bn, ‘primarily driven by the net impact of rising rates and loan growth” even as average NIM missed.
Commenting on the result, Jamie Dimon said: ‘We continued to post very solid results against a stable-to-improving global economic backdrop. The U. S. consumer remains healthy, evidenced in our strong underlying performance in Consumer & Community Banking. Loans and deposits continue to grow strongly, and card sales and merchant processing volumes were up double digits, reflecting our consistent investment in the business. In the Corporate & Investment Bank, we maintained our leadership in Banking, while Markets revenue was down amid lower volatility and client activity.’
Dimon concluded:’We are also pleased to announce increases to our capital return plans while continuing to invest in our businesses for long-term profitability – reflecting the financial strength of our company and the significant capital and liquidity improvements we have made over the past several years.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 14, 2017.

We’re Partying Like It’s 1928; Are We Heading for a Crash?

We’re partying like it’s 1928.
Of course, that was the year before the Black Tuesday stock market crash and the beginning of the Great Depression. During a recent interview on CNBC’s Power Lunch, Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko said he sees a lot of parallels between today and 1928-1929.
I have this belief that we’re flowing toward the path of 1928-29 when Hoover was president. Now Trump is president. Both were presidents with no experience who come in with a Congress that is all Republican, lots of big promises, lots of things that don’t happen and the fall is when people realize, ‘Wait, it hasn’t played out the way we thought.’’
During her recent testimony before Congress, Fed Chair Janet Yellen continued to talk up the ‘strong’ US economy. Last month, she said banks are ‘very much stronger’ and another financial crisis is unlikely anytime soon. Stocks continue to climb. Analysts seem positively giddy about the employment numbers.
It’s a veritable party.
But as Yusko pointed out, there are some sketchy things going on in the other room. He says that too much stimulus and quantitative easing have resulted in a ‘huge’ bubble in US stocks.

This post was published at Schiffgold on JULY 14, 2017.

Vatican Press Lashes Out At Catholic Trump Voters, Calls Steve Bannon “A Supporter Of Apocalyptic Geopolitics”

In a relatively shocking article – don’t forget the Vatican has been extremely outspoken for a man in his office – a close ally of Pope Francis has written in a widely-read Vatican publication attacking Stephen Bannon, the senior White House strategist and lamenting a drift towards fundamentalism among some US conservative Catholics who backed Donald Trump as president.
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As a reminder, The pope and Trump have voiced their differences with each other in the past. When asked in 2016 about then-candidate Trump’s proposal to build a wall along the U. S.-Mexico border, the pope appeared to imply Trump was not a Christian.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 14, 2017.

Kid Rock Is Running For Senate – And Maybe You Should Run For Public Office Too

Would Kid Rock make a good U. S. senator? When asked if a website promoting his potential run was real, he responded by tweeting that the answer is ‘an absolute YES’. Of course no official announcement has been made yet, but Kid Rock says one may be coming very soon. Many Republicans have been urging him to run against incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow, and it looks like this may actually happen. Thanks to Donald Trump’s election victory last November, a lot of celebrities are starting to realize that they might be able to be successful in politics too. Even now, there are rumors that Mark Zuckerberg, The Rock, Katy Perry and Oprah Winfrey may all be considering running for president in 2020, and it would be a shock if we didn’t see at least a few ‘unconventional candidates’ shoot for the White House next time around.
Considering the clown show that the Senate has already become, it is hard to imagine things getting much worse. If you want to see the website that has been set up for Kid Rock’s campaign, you can find it right here. Apparently his primary slogan is ‘Are You Scared?’
Some may dismiss this as a publicity stunt, but apparently Kid Rock is quite serious about running…
Famed rocker and admitted Republican Robert Ritchie – aka ‘Kid Rock’ – tweeted Wednesday that he has been asked repeatedly about whether he is going to run for office, specifically for the U. S. Senate. His response? ‘Absolute YES.’
Ritchie has been vocally supportive of Republican politicians in the past, including President Donald Trump, whom he endorsed during the 2016 presidential elections. Ritchie recently made headlines when he visited the White House with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and fellow rocker Ted Nugent. The photos that came out of the visit prompted nasty comments from many on the left.

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on July 13th, 2017.

Americans’ “Comfort” In The US Economy Just Plunged Most In Over 6 Years

Americans’ comfort in the US economy plunged the last two weeks to its lowest since February (tumbling most since 2011), despite the recovery in stock prices. Democrats, in particular, have lost any faith with the weakest confidence since Dec 2015.

Confidence in Personal Finances also declined, as did Americans’ perception of the buying climate.
Democrats and Republicans both saw confidence decline, the former to post-Trump lows.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 14, 2017.

Ted Butler Quote of the Day 07-14-17

But there are other factors that may play into the only question that matters, namely, will JPM add to shorts or not. Among those factors are the widespread and growing attention to the extreme COMEX positioning changes and otherwise unexplainable and weird price action in silver, which can only be explained by COMEX positioning. Throw in the wildcard of the new Enforcement Director at the CFTC, James McDonald, and the game’s outcome goes beyond interesting.

As far as I’m concerned, we’re on the verge of discovering if McDonald will go down as perhaps the regulatory hero of all time or if we’ll be calling for his head on a spike. Again, it all comes down to whether JPMorgan adds or doesn’t add to its silver short positions whenever the next price rally commences. I can’t get more specific than that.

As far as what Friday’s COT report will indicate, the dramatic downside price action and extremely high trading volume point to yet another week of significant improvement – big commercial buying and managed money selling. This is also supported by an increase in total open interest in the reporting week (4,000 contracts in silver and 18,000 in gold). We may even see improvements on the scale of last week’s report, but regardless of whatever the actual reported numbers may be, it sure feels to me that we’re at or passed the point of a downside climax, particularly in terms of extreme contract positioning. Full and maximum exposure is warranted, particularly in silver.

A small excerpt from Ted Butler’s subscription letter on 12 July 2017.

More precious metals news & information available at
Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Digest.
 

‘Financial Crisis’ Coming By End Of 2018 – Prepare Urgently

‘Financial Crisis Of Historic Proportions’ Is ‘Bearing Down On Us’
John Mauldin of Mauldin Economics latest research note, Prepare for Turbulence, is excellent and a must read warning about the coming financial crisis. Mind refreshed from what sounds like a wonderful honeymoon and having had the time to read some books outside his ‘comfort zone’ he has come to the conclusion that we are on the verge of a ‘major financial crisis, if not later this year, then by the end of 2018 at the latest.’
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Mauldin is a New York Times bestselling author and respected investment expert and his excellent analysis concludes with advice to prepare urgently for the financial ‘crisis of historic proportions’ which is ‘once again bearing down on us’:
‘You and I can’t control whether banks are ready, but we can control whether we are ready. I am working on a number of fronts to help you. My brief time away convinced me beyond any doubt that a crisis of historic proportions is once again bearing down on us. We may have little time to prepare. We definitely have no time to waste.’

This post was published at Gold Core on July 14, 2017.

Tech Billionaires Are Funding A Plan To Break The Human Race Out Of The Matrix

On the southwestern edge of Lake Titicaca, Peru, there is an ancient 23-foot doorway known as the Aramu Muru. Local natives call it the ‘Puerta de hayu Marca,’ the gateway to the lands of the gods and immortal life. Throughout their history, the natives have described people disappearing and appearing at this doorway.
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In 1998, purported extraterrestrial contactee Jerry Wills claimed a tall blonde humanoid named Zo taught him how to access Aramu Muru and enter ‘another universe.’ Wills further claimed that Zo illustrated to him how our universe is an experimental simulation within his species’ universe. They built it to understand their own reality, which is itself nested inside a larger universe.
The next year, in 1999, the blockbuster science fiction film The Matrix came out and forever emblazoned into our collective subconscious the idea that our existence is a simulation created by a more advanced race of beings. Incidentally, the film also made long black trench coats, black sunglasses, and my last name all the rage, but I digress…

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 13, 2017.

We Do These Things Because They’re Easy: Our All-Consuming Dependence on Debt

A world in which “we do these things because they’re easy” has one end-state: collapse.
On September 12, 1962, President John F. Kennedy gave a famous speech announcing the national goal of going to the moon by the end of the decade. (JFK’s speech on going to the moon.) In a memorable line, Kennedy said we would pursue the many elements of the space program “not because they are easy, but because they are hard.” Our national philosophy now is “we do these things because they’re easy”– and relying on debt to pay today’s expenses is at the top of the list. What’s easier than tapping a line of credit to buy whatever you want or need? Nothing’s easier than borrowing money, especially at super-low rates of interest. We are now totally, completely dependent on expanding debt for the maintenance of our society and economy. Every sector of the economy–households, businesses and government–all borrow vast sums just to maintain the status quo for another year.

This post was published at Charles Hugh Smith on THURSDAY, JULY 13, 2017.