Asian Metals Market Update: July-07-2017

Factors which can affect markets
Fundamentally there is no positive news for gold and silver. They are just moved by US interest rate trends and global bond yields. This correlation will be over by September and new correlations will be seen. A stronger US economy can result in initial losses for bullion but will start another 2003 type bull wave in gold. Excess will happen in a world where algorithmic trading/robots trade. The restarting of another super bull run is getting delayed by another few years.
Gold and silver are looking very bearish at the moment. Higher geopolitical risk has not lent support to bullion. Today’s US June payrolls need to be lower than 140,000 to start some short term rally in gold and silver. Crude oil’s failure to rise after a bad US inventory report can result in a ten percent fall in the short term. One needs to remain on the sidelines today.
The fall in crude oil prices reflects fundamentals. It is also the US style way of ensuring that the key crude oil producing nations exhaust their crude oil wells and US replaces OPEC as the price dictator of crude oil prices. Every war in the 21st century by America and NATO allies is for energy and minerals. This will continue.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 7 July 2017.

Rachel Maddow Caught In Latest Fake News Scandal; Proof Her “Forged NSA Document” Segment Was A Hoax

She thought she had it. The smoking gun that would prove someone in Trump’s campaign colluded with the Russians to steal the 2016 election. But, when a forged NSA document sent to Rachel Maddow turned out to be just more bad information from more anonymous sources, it left the crusading MSNBC host feeling a bit “triggered.” As such, she opened her show last night with the following segment:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 7, 2017.

Payroll Report; The State of Slowing Or Not Slowing

The payroll report for June 2017 was the first ‘good’ one in some time. There are now a few indications that the ‘reflation’ in the economy may be finally having positive effects on the labor market. The headline Establishment Survey gain was relatively solid at 222k, though it was above 200k for just the fourth time in the last nine months. The 6-month average, however, is still just 180k, much closer to 2012 levels than 2014.
Maybe the best sign of delayed improvement was in average weekly hours. The estimate was revised higher for April to 34.5 per week, with hours in June matching that level. Those were the best figures since the beginning of 2016.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Jeffrey P. Snider ‘ July 7, 2017.

Dead Mall Stalking: One Hedge Fund Manager’s Tour Across Middle-America – Part 2

Continued from Part 1…
Malls are bearing the brunt of changes in retail, but they’re only the canary in the coal mine.
Let’s start with a simple premise; commercial real estate (CRE) will change more in the next decade than it has in the past hundred years. Anyone who thinks they can fully foresee how it will evolve is lying to you. The only certainty is that highly leveraged real estate investors and lenders will be obliterated as current models evolve faster than anticipated.
In the past, retail was retail, warehouse was warehouse and office was office – the same for all other CRE classes. There was some cross-over, but the main commercial real estate components stayed segmented for the most part. Now, with big box stores, the lowest hanging fruit for online shopping to knock off, going to dodo-land, there will be hundreds of millions of feet of well-located space suddenly becoming available. People act as if there are enough Ulta Beauty and Dick’s Sporting Goods to go around. However, you cannot fill all of this space with the few big box retail concepts still expanding – especially as many stalwarts are themselves shrinking.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 7, 2017.

Ted Butler Quote of the Day 07-08-17

“Whatever Friday’s report indicates, considering the improvement in market structure over the past few weeks and particularly since the silver top of $18.50 on April 18, we have to be close to the maximum extreme of bullish market structures in silver and maybe for gold as well. Not only do the running results from the COT report show that, the price action seems as deliberate and intentional as is possible. We’ve certainly seen larger price drops in silver than the $2.50 drop seen since the April 18 high, but I don’t recall larger positioning changes. The 17 day consecutive silver price decline into early May was the prime catalyst for my price explosion premise and the new price decline since June 6 looks every much as effective in inducing technical fund selling. Between the two back to back declines, it’s hard to see how every technical fund contract that could be sold hasn’t already been sold, or nearly so.”

A small excerpt from Ted Butler’s subscription letter on 05 July 2017.

More precious metals news & information available at
Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Digest.

Northern Vertex Continues To Improve Mine Efficiencies Ahead of Q4 Gold Production

Vancouver– Northern Vertex Mining Corp reports a new updated mine optimization plan is slated to further improve the economics and the environmental footprint of its soon to be operational Moss Mine Gold-Silver project in NW Arizona.
Highlights of the updated Mine Optimization Plan, designed to further enhance the project’s already robust economic model and to reduce emissions at the Moss Mine, includes the upcoming construction of a power line to the mine site as well as the contracted sale and distribution of aggregates derived from mine waste rock.
The plan will result in improved infrastructure and profits from the sale of waste rock. It is also expected to boost the mine’s after-tax IRR from its current 48%, while providing an additional $16 million in operational savings over a five year period.
Scheduled to enter commercial gold production in Q4 of this year, the new open-pit, heap leach operation is expected to generate over 40,000 ounces in annual gold equivalent production, with a three-phase mine life. The Moss mine is projected to be a high margin, low-cost producer, with all-in sustaining costs of US$662/oz gold and an after-tax IRR of 48% (based on $1,250/oz gold and $20/oz silver).

This post was published at GoldSeek on 7 July 2017.

Why Gold Prices Are Poised to Rise 15.7% from Their 2017 Lows

July 7, 2017
Gold prices have kept falling this week, with the metal on track for a 2.6% decline to $1,210 since Friday, June 30. This comes after posting a 1.1% drop the previous week (June 23-30).
The changing value of the dollar has hurt the price of gold. The 200-basis-point sell-off in the U. S. Dollar Index (DXY) from June 26 to June 29 took the greenback into oversold territory. That meant a relief rally for the dollar was likely, and when it arrived this week, it naturally hit gold prices hard.
As we know, a stronger dollar is bad for gold prices. Since gold is priced in dollars, any strength in the currency makes the metal more expensive to users of other currencies. This reduces demand and lowers gold prices.
But with a quick return to bear mode, I think gold may have finally reached its bottom by now.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by Peter Krauth ‘.

Dilbert Creator Suggests Novel Solution To The North Korea Situation

I have some spare time this morning so I thought I would solve the North Korean nuclear threat problem.
The current frame on how all sides are approaching the problem is a win-lose setup. Either North Korea wins – and develops nukes that can reach the mainland USA – or the United States wins, and North Korea abandons its nuclear plans, loses face, loses leverage, and loses security. Our current framing of the situation doesn’t have a path to success.
So how do you fix that situation?
First we must acknowledge that a win-lose model has no chance of success in this specific case because North Korea responds to threats by working harder to build nukes. That’s no good. You need some form of a win-win setup to make any kind of deal. That’s what I’m about to suggest. And by winning, I mean both sides get what they need, even if it isn’t exactly what they said they want.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 7, 2017.

Former governor of Reserve Bank of India admits gold bothers central banks

The government should take steps to curb black market transactions in gold, which have an adverse effect on the economy, according to Y.V. Reddy, a former governor of the Reserve Bank of India.
“Some of the demand for gold today stems from black market transactions, which have a nefarious influence on the economic systems and social fabric and deserve immediate and serious attention,” Reddy said in an article titled “The Voice of Authority” written in Gold Investor, a publication of the World Gold Council:
He said a number of measures needed to be taken to tackle black market transactions, adding that in the long term, if the financial sector expands and develops, the economy grows, and society evolves, the demand for gold arising from cultural factors, property rights, and general preferences should be resolved.
“Gold has the characteristics of a currency, competing with the official currency as a form of savings or a store of value. It is a commodity by definition — but its links with the financial sector provoke central bank concerns,” he added.

This post was published at India Times

The German problem: Why Germany’s current-account surplus is bad for the world economy

The battle-lines are drawn. When the world’s big trading nations convene this week at a G20 summit in Hamburg, the stage is set for a clash between a protectionist America and a free-trading Germany.
President Donald Trump has already pulled out of one trade pact, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and demanded the renegotiation of another, the North American Free-Trade Agreement. He is weighing whether to impose tariffs on steel imports into America, a move that would almost certainly provoke retaliation. The threat of a trade war has hung over the Trump presidency since January. In contrast, Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor and the summit’s host, will bang the drum for free trade. In a thinly veiled attack on Mr Trump, she delivered a speech on June 29th condemning the forces of protectionism and isolationism. An imminent free-trade deal between Japan and the European Union will add substance to her rhetoric.
There is no question who has the better of this argument. Mr Trump’s doctrine that trade must be balanced to be fair is economically illiterate. His belief that tariffs will level the playing field is naive and dangerous: they would shrink prosperity for all. But in one respect, at least, Mr Trump has grasped an inconvenient truth. He has admonished Germany for its trade surplus, which stood at almost $300bn last year, the world’s largest (China’s hoard was a mere $200bn). His threatened solution – to put a stop to sales of German cars – may be self-defeating, but the fact is that Germany saves too much and spends too little. And the size and persistence of Germany’s savings hoard makes it an awkward defender of free trade.
At bottom, a trade surplus is an excess of national saving over domestic investment. In Germany’s case, this is not the result of a mercantilist government policy, as some foreigners complain. Nor, as German officials often insist, does it reflect the urgent need for an ageing society to save more. The rate of household saving has been stable, if high, for years; the increase in national saving has come from firms and the government.
Underlying Germany’s surplus is a decades-old accord between business and unions in favour of wage restraint to keep export industries competitive. Such moderation served Germany’s export-led economy well through its postwar recovery and beyond. It is an instinct that helps explain Germany’s transformation since the late 1990s from Europe’s sick man to today’s muscle-bound champion.

This post was published at The Economist

What Real Independence Looks Like — Nick Giambruno

Every July 4, Americans have less independence to celebrate.
The country’s original principles preserved a certain degree of independence for the individual. But today, the US only pays lip service to those ideals. In light of Independence Day, I think we should consider an important question:
What does real independence look like, and how can you achieve it?
Anyone paying the slightest attention to the welfare/warfare state knows what it does not look like:

This post was published at International Man