GOLD: $1219.70 DOWN $20.80
Silver: $16.10 DOWN 47 cent(s)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1220.35
silver: $16.17
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$9.03
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1235.20
For comex gold:
For silver:
1,630,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1204 for 6,020,000 oz

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on July 3, 2017.

Only 4 House Republicans Say They Would Support “Clean” Debt-Ceiling Hike

With the CBO warning that the Treasury is on track to run out of cash in less than four months, Republicans are facing a difficult internecine struggle to raise the debt limits as both conservatives and moderates demand riders that stipulate how the money can be spent. And while the Trump administration has sought to play down this conflict, as the Hill reports, support for a ‘clean’ debt-ceiling hike – that is, raising the debt ceiling with no strings attached – is dwindling as only a handful of the 16 remaining House Republicans who backed the last clean hike say they would back another. Yet, though Democratic support for a clean bill is far from assured, the Republicans’ much narrower majority in the Senate increases the likelihood of a clean hike.
Only 16 House Republicans who are currently in office backed the last ‘clean’ debt hike, and few of them will say they are certain to support it this year. If the debt ceiling is raised with a clean hike – a distinct possibility given Democratic demands and the narrow, 52-seat majority for the GOP in the Senate, Republicans will need at least 24 members of their own conference to back a clean debt bill in the House.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 3, 2017.

The “Big Lie” Of Market Indexes

Last week, I received the following email from a reader which I thought was worth further discussion.
‘In a recent article ‘Signs of Excess – Crowding and Innovation’ Lance stated ‘Note the chart above is what has happened to a $100,000 investment in the S&P Index. While the S&P index has soared past previous highs, a $100,000 dollar investment has just recently gotten back to even. This demonstrates the important difference about the impact of losses on a dollar-based portfolio on investments versus a market-cap weighted phantom index.’ – M. Fitzpatrick
It’s a great question.
Almost daily there is an article touting the soaring ‘bull market’ which is currently hovering near its highest levels in history. The chart below is based on quarterly data back to 1990 and is nominal (not adjusted for inflation) which is how it is normally presented to investors

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 3, 2017.

Missing Income

With inflation tailing off as oil price base effects fade, statistics that turn nominal into real terms will start looking better. Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita, for example, increased in May 2017 at a faster rate than in January. The difference, however, isn’t all that much. The CPI in January was 2.50% and 1.87% in May, but Real DPI per Capita accelerated only from +0.86% year-over-year the to +1.49% now, a perfect 63 bps equalization (it doesn’t quite work out that way in nominal terms, but close enough).
As of the latest BLS figures, the unemployment rate of 4.3% is significantly below the level at which the Fed’s models are sure inflation will be rising due to wage pressures. It isn’t, as incomes and wages remain in the same state as throughout the past few disappointing years. To acknowledge that ‘something’ isn’t right, the staff at the US central bank has continued to mark down their projections for what constitutes ‘full employment.’ At the last FOMC meeting, one at which the committee voted for another ‘rate hike’, the lower bound central tendency for ‘full employment’ was reduced to 4.5% from 4.7%.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on July 3, 2017.

Millennials Really Want A McMansion Of Their Own, There’s Just One Problem…

A new survey from ApartmentList.com of 24,000 millennials across the country, born between 1982 and 2004, revealed some ‘great news’ for the residential housing market…about 80% of the millennials surveyed said they’re ready to move out of mom’s basement and buy a home. There’s just one catch…
Apparently those same millennials either have no idea how much a home costs in their respective cities and/or are really bad at math. As evidence, the following table from Apartment List illustrates the hilarious gap between what millennials think a home down payment in their area should be and what it actually is.
Not surprisingly, the largest gaps between millennial math and reality came from the most expensive cities like L. A. and San Francisco where down payment expectations were off by a modest 50-60%.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 3, 2017.

Fake Leadership, Fake News… Even Fake Gold Dealers

Mike Gleason: I wanted to ask you about a tweet you sent out earlier this month – and for people who want to follow you there, it’s @JamesGRickards – but in that tweet you wrote:
Just informed that Scotia Bank branch is now a gold buyer only. Will not sell to retail clients. Get it while you can. War on gold is here.
Expand on that here, Jim. What did you make of that move and why did you make those comments?
Jim Rickards: Sure. We have a war on cash. I think that’s pretty well known to the listeners, so we see it everywhere. India just abolished its two most popular forms of cash. They literally woke up one day and they said, I think it was the 2,000 rupee note and the 1,000 rupee note, if I’m not mistaken. I believe those are the right denominations. Not worth a whole lot by our standards, worth like $15 or whatever. But they were, by far the most popular and widely used, widely circulated bank notes in India. And the government just woke up and said they’re all illegal. They’re worthless. Just like that. Now what they said is, “Now you can take them down to the bank and you can hand them in, and we’ll give you digital credit in your account – oh by the way, the tax inspector’s going to be there asking you where you got the money.” So obviously it was designed to flush out people suspected of tax evasion.
Although, in fact it turned out that there weren’t that many tax cheaters. They were just people who actually preferred money. The preferred cash and they were forced out of the system, forced into this digital system. And there were all kinds of negative repercussions of that. So, there’s a whole country that abolished the most popular forms of cash.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 3 July 2017.

How to build an impenetrable defense

Over the past few days, I’ve been telling you about the importance of building a personal Plan B that ensures you are in a position of strength… no matter what happens next.
The first step is building a strong defense that safeguards what you already have.
This includes risk prevention and increasing your freedom.
It ensures that everything you’ve worked for – and will achieve – over your lifetime is safe, no matter what.
Here are the four most important steps everyone should consider taking.
Step #1: Get some physical cash
This is one of the most critical strategies for your Plan B – and also one of the easiest to implement.
If something happens in the banking system, and all of your money is trapped in the bank, your savings effectively become worthless.
With current interest rates nearing zero, you are not going to be worse off for having some physical cash.

This post was published at Sovereign Man on July 3, 2017.

No Monster At The ZLB, Just Supply

Before Chuck Yeager broke the sound barrier in his experimental Bell X-1 aircraft, it was long thought by many to be an extremely difficult challenge if not impossible altogether. Many test pilots spoke of a monster that lay beyond the speed of sound, one ready to destroy any human machine attempting to go faster. In fact, a year before Captain Yeager’s triumph, Geoffrey DeHavilland was killed when his DH-108 disintegrated near the barrier, with many witnesses on the ground reporting a sonic boom.
In economics, there remains today a similar constraint though one not nearly as useful in fact as well as in theory. Economists loathe the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) mostly because it is a limitation on what they might do. Nominal interest rates can’t be negative (yet), so getting monetary policy into the Twilight Zone of the ZLB is an experiment in fantasy.
Not for lack of trying, of course. The Japanese have been struggling with nominality for decades now. Western central bankers have been well aware of the Bank of Japan’s inability to make much of it, but instead of reworking their theories they blamed the Japanese for poor execution. Now a decade after the global monetary panic, nobody wants to talk much about QE at all anymore.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on July 3, 2017.

‘Detroit 3’ June Auto Sales Crash 6% YoY…Just Enough To Spark A Massive Equity Buying Binge

GM's inventory has officially hit a 10-year high. 980,454 units in stock (a 105-day supply) as of June 30, the most since June 2007.
— Nick Bunkley (@nickbunkley) July 3, 2017

It seems that “Big 3” auto sales for the month of June managed to hit a sweet spot whereby they were down just enough year-over-year to spark a massive equity buying binge on a shortened holiday trading session. GM, Ford and Chrysler posted YoY sales declines of 6% on average, which was less negative than expected, so positive (negative x negative = positive…it’s just math).
Meanwhile, in another positive sign for the auto industry, Ford, which previously described the current sales environment as a ‘plateau’, confirmed on their sales call that the “industry peaked” last year and was unlikely to top 2016 sales figures at any point in the near future.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 3, 2017.

GLD Recognition Day

Today is called a recognition day when it finally becomes apparent that the trading range is ending and you have a massive breakout move. We can still get a backtest to the breakout point which would represent the 2nd area to take a position. Today GLD gapped below the H&S backtest to the bottom rail of the black bearish rising wedge and that very important S&R line which last week I said came into play around the 117 area.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 3 July 2017.

All The Economic Collapse Pieces Are Falling Into Place – Episode 1322a

The following video was published by X22Report on Jul 3, 2017
GM reports that car sales have plummeted and the auto industry has stuffed the dealer lots like we haven’t seen since the last crisis. Construction spending has imploded, the housing market it turning and turning quickly. The corporate media is pushing fake news about almost anything, two reports show manufacturing is up and another shows it is down. Illinois looks like they are getting ready to pass a tax hike, which will destroy the state.

Goldman Sachs On What Happens Next – Recession, War, Or Goldilocks

After several months of low volatility across assets since mid-2016, particularly in equities, markets were more volatile last week owing to fears of central bank tightening. Volatility picked up first in FX and rates, and then spilled over to equities. However, as Goldman notes, this might not be the end of the low vol regime yet.
Via Goldman Sachs,
Since 1928, there have been 14 comparable low vol regimes for the S&P 500 – on average, they lasted nearly two years and they had a median length of 15-16 months. Often they were supported by a very favourable macro backdrop, similar to the recent ‘Goldilocks scenario’. Breaking out of the low vol regime usually required a large shock, for example a recession or war. While central bank uncertainty can drive volatility in the near term, it is unlikely to drive a sustained high vol regime.
Investors have recently started to position for higher volatility – the open interest n VIX calls has increased, inflows into the largest long VIX ETP have picked up and the net short on VIX futures has decreased. But the VIX call/put open interest ratio has little predictive power for large VIX spikes historically. We think short-dated S&P 500 put spreads best address the risk investors are facing in the near term – a consolidation but not yet a transition into a sustained higher vol regime.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 3, 2017.

Governor Vows To Veto The Illinois House Approved 32% Tax Increase

Illinois is suffering an economic collapse due to the burdening cost of bloated government. In their third year without a budget, instead of cutting down on government intervention, the house politicians insisted on raising taxes.
Many in the Land of Lincoln bailed on the state when the property taxes were increased, and this is likely to drive out even more producers. Late on Sunday evening, the Illinois House approved the most controversial element of a budget package. They approved a tax hike which will increase the state income tax rate by 32% from 3.75% to 4.95%, and the corporate income tax rate from 5.25% to 7%, to try and end a historic budget impasse. The bill passed 72-45. The House also approved a $36 billion spending plan minutes later with an 81-34 vote. According to the Sun Times, it cleared an initial hurdle on Friday with 23 Republicans voting ‘yes.’
Proving that people don’t enjoy their hard-earned money being stolen from them, Illinois residents fled the state, taking their money with them not long after the state jacked up the property tax rate. The governor is vowing to veto this newly approved income tax hike, though, as Illinois is already one of the most taxed states. But the veto would more than likely be overridden.

This post was published at The Daily Sheeple on July 3, 2017.

Lighten Up to Tighten Up

One way or another, I’m gonna find you
I’m gonna get ya, get ya, get ya, get ya
– Blondie
Perhaps the presidency has been an overly solemn office since, oh, the days of Millard Fillmore, the dreary weight of all that mortal responsibility – slavery, war, more war, depression, yet more war, nukes, we shall overcome, terror, Lehman Brothers, Ferguson, Russia here, there, and everywhere…uccchhh….
And so, at last: a little comic relief. I mean, imagine Grover Cleveland putting the choke-slam on Thomas Nast. Dwight Eisenhower punching out Edward R. Morrow. Jack Kennedy applying the Macumba Death Grip to Walter Lippman. Nahhhh. But Donald (‘The Golden Golem of Greatness’) Trump versus CNN! Now that’s a matchup worthy of the WWF Hall of Fame. I just kind of wish the big fella had gone all the way and put in Anderson Cooper’s mug instead of the CNN logo box. Make it truly up front and personal since, let’s face it, Andy has been the most visible conduit of Jeff Zucker’s animadversions.
At least The New York Times seemed to take the prank in stride, calling it, ‘an unorthodox way for a sitting president to express himself.’ Well, yes! Nicely put. They didn’t call for the Commander-in-Chief to be stripped down to his silk small-clothes and be run through a gantlet of aggrieved trannies. Well, I dunno, maybe that’s next….

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on July 3, 2017.

Goldman Warns Of Rising “Shock” Risk To Risk Parity Investors

Last Thursday, when the VIX briefly soared from 10 to 15, crossing the level which Marko Kolanovic previously said could lead to “catastrophic losses” for systematic funds and vol sellers, we asked two questions: “i) Will today’s selloff lead to a broad deleveraging among vol-sellers who are forced to cover into a sharply rising VIX, and ii) will the risk parity funds finally be forced to unwind?”
While the VIX surge was short-lived (thus answering question i) with the VIX tumbling back to 11 by EOD, it allowed us to trot out our favorite risk-parity chart, a matrix showing implied deleveraging thresholds for a large cross-section of the risk-parity industry, based on intraday moves in equities vs bonds.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 3, 2017.

Gold and Silver Market Morning: July 3 2017 – Gold slipping before the holiday!

Gold Today – New York closed at $1,241.40 Friday after closing at $1,244.30 Thursday. London opened at $1,235.25 today.
Overall the dollar was stronger against global currencies, early today. Before London’s opening:
– The $: was stronger at $1.1398 after Friday’s $1.1406: 1.
– The Dollar index was stronger at 95.86 after Friday’s 95.73.
– The Yen was stronger at 111.99 after Friday’s 112.55:$1.
– The Yuan was weaker at 6.7880 after Friday’s 6.7793: $1.
– The Pound Sterling was stronger at $1.3007 after Friday’s $1.2984: 1.
Yuan Gold Fix
New York weakened on Friday after Shanghai and London weakened. This morning Shanghai weakened further setting the stage for London to fall. As you can see London is also seeing downward pressure as the U. S. dollar strengthened a little against all currencies bar the Pound Sterling.
We have yet to see the authorities in China give a signal that they are happy with any particular level of the Yuan. What we do know is that it is unlikely to approach 7.00 against the dollar in the foreseeable future. One should now focus on the Yuan against all currencies, not just the dollar.
We do see friction increasing between China and the U. S. on the political front and expect to see greater efforts on all fronts to reduce reliance on the U. S. dollar in their reserves as tensions grow.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 3 July 2017.

Ron Paul: 50% Increase in Gold Price Wouldn’t Be a Shock

Last week, Ron Paul appeared on CNBC’s Futures Now and said he wouldn’t be surprise if the stock market crashes and the price of gold soars in the near future.
If our markets are down 25% and gold is up 50%, it wouldn’t be a total shock to me.’
The former congressman and presidential candidate said uncertainty is the rule of the day and that’s giving the market the jitters.
I think the markets are very nervous for good reason. They don’t know what to expect, and it’s unpredictable what the Fed will do. It’s also unpredictable how the markets will react. But I think if the signs are the economy is weakening even more so – and I don’t accept this idea that employment is magnificent and perfect and will last forever – so, I think if they raise rates again, it mighty be another factor. But right now it looks like some of those markets are a little shaky already.’
Paul pointed out that central planners are really incapable of knowing what to do. That means we should be wary of whatever actions they may decide to take.

This post was published at Schiffgold on JULY 3, 2017.

Jenet Yellen Treated At London Hospital Over The Weekend

Nearly two years after Janet Yellen’s “dehydration” event during a speech in Boston, when in September 2015 the Fed Chair slurred her speech for several minutes before getting medial attention, moments ago the Fed disclosed that the Fed Chair had been hospitalized in London over the weekend for a urinary tract infection, although she has since recovered and is expected to “resume her schedule as planned this week”.
Fed press release below:

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 3, 2017.

Asian Metals Market Update: July-03-2017

Factors which can affect markets
Tomorrow’s US holiday can result in lower trading volumes today also. Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls will tell us whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September or November. A big fortnight for the US dollar. If the US dollar continues its slide in the next fortnight then at least ten percent more weakness will be there in the short term. I do not think FOMC minutes this week will have any impact on bullion or the US dollar unless there are dissident members on June’s interest rate hike.
Traders will look to news from quarter end perspective. Industrial metals (except nickel) rose in June. June’s closing of metals and energies reflect that investors are more focused on fundamentals. Nickel and natural gas are fundamentally weak so they did not rise much. Copper’s fundamental outlook is better from the final quarter of the year into next year. Short squeeze along with rebuilding of fresh long positions added to the rise. Silver is a case of ‘doodh ka jaala chach ko bhi fookh ke peeta hai’ or bitten unlimited times hence fearful to invest in silver.
I am sure that gold will break free the recent $1179-$1214-$1300 trading range and form a new range anytime soon. The world will be watching Indian demand this quarter. Dushera is on 30th September with Diwali on 19th October. Hindu festivals are a bit early this year. Higher Indian demand will result in gold prices trading with a bullish bias this quarter. There is no panic buying in India as gold prices have been between Rs.27500 and Rs.31000 for the past nearly two years. Jewelry buyers are buying gold only on occasion and not panic buying due to relatively stable gold prices. Pure physical gold long term investors are slowly a moving into a rare breed category in India. (Please do not get confused by the Paytm egold sales as I believe that they are mostly less than one year investment).

This post was published at GoldSeek on 3 July 2017.