Wall Street Strategists Forecast Most-Bearish Second Half Since 1999

Despite a hiccup in the last week or so, global stocks survived as the best-performing asset class of the year (with the MSCI All-Country World Index wrapping up its best first half in 19 years)…
But, as Bloomberg reports, Wall Street strategists are fighting historic odds when urging investors not to chase the rally in the U. S. stock market.
They’re predicting the S&P 500 Index will see momentum fade in the second half after shares climbed 8.2 percent for the best first-half performance since 2013.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 1, 2017.

The new retirement model revolves around dying broke and realizing that the 401k model of investing is a sham for most Americans.

The new retirement model means working until you die. Most Americans are broke and living paycheck to paycheck. Yet the stock market is near a modern day peak. What is going on? Wasn’t the 401k experiment that launched in the early 1980s to replace pensions supposed to be a panacea in terms of building out nest eggs for the masses in their golden years? That was the idea but unfortunately inflation has eaten away at the standard of living and many Americans simply did not have enough to save when it came to retirement. We know the drill – sock away X percent a month and after 30 or 40 years you will have seven figures. Well here we are, nearly 40 years from that experiment and most Americans have little to nothing in their retirement accounts and the pension (a forced 401k in a way) is virtually extinct. So is dying broke the new retirement model?
Americans have very little saved
This might come as a surprise but most Americans have very little saved when it comes to retirement (assuming they even have retirement savings). The numbers don’t even look that great after a massive bull market.

This post was published at MyBudget360 on June 30, 2017.

Gold And Silver – Why No Rally? Lies, Lies, And More Lies.

One thing certain of all politicians, no matter where in the world, they all lie. The US federal government, that captive political body beholding to Wall Street interests, also a subsidiary of the international bankers that controls the West and all fiat-issued currency, is one of the worst when it comes to lies and deceit, primarily because Europe can only play a poor second fiddle to federal US dictates. South America can offer no resistance, nor can South Africa.
China is beginning to flex its overblown might, and Russia, while in opposition, remains under attack by the West, led by the Neocons [Nazi-types] from the US Deep State trouble makers. The only thing the federal US government does is start wars, and if there is a war going on anywhere around the globe, the US is either directly or indirectly responsible. Wars feed the [fading but still formidable] military might as a means of keeping the fiat Ponzi scheme, aka the ‘dollar,’ alive as the [diminishing] world reserve fiat currency.
Every US administration, at least since the 16th president, Lincoln, in 1861, has been utterly deceitful to the American, indeed world-wide, public. Almost everything that comes from every administration is based on lies, lies, and more lies. Bush, the first, Clinton, Bush the second, Obama, and now Trump, have been ardent liars about everything.
The Bushes and Clinton were willing sycophants serving the interests of the elites at the expense of all Americans. ‘Yes, we can’-Obama was full of naive hope that quickly turned into yet another executioner for the elites, not fulfilling a single campaign promise and basing his entire presidency on selling the American interests to Wall Street and the international bankers. Obama was a sickening excuse for a president and hid his lying character from the American public.

This post was published at Edge Trader Plus on Saturday 1 July 2017.

It’s Not Just Americans, Europe’s New Obsession With Auto Leases Is “Catastrophic For Used Car Prices”

We’ve spent a lot of time of late writing about the pending collapse of the U. S. auto bubble. When it comes, that collapse will, at least in part, be due to the fact that over the past 6 years, new leases, as a percent of overall car sales, have soared courtesy of, among other things, low interest rates, stable/rising used car prices and a nation of rental-crazed citizens for whom monthly payment is the only metric used to evaluate a “good deal”…even though leasing a new vehicle is pretty much the worst ‘deal’ you can possibly find for a rapidly depreciating brand new asset like a car…but we digress.
Of course, what goes up must eventually come down. And all those leases signed on millions of brand new cars over the past several years are about to come off lease and flood the market with cheap, low-mileage used inventory.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 1, 2017.

Why Quantitative Tightening Will Fail

This is a syndicated repost courtesy of The Daily Reckoning. To view original, click here. Reposted with permission.
After nine years of unconventional quantitative easing (QE) policy the Federal Reserve is now setting out on a new path for quantitative tightening (QT).
QE was a policy of money printing. The Fed did this by buying bonds from the big banks. The banks would then deliver bonds to the Fed, and the Fed would in turn pay them with money from thin air. QT takes a different approach.
Instead, the Fed will set out policy that allows the old bonds to mature, while not buy new ones from the banks. That way the money will shrink the balance sheets ahead of any potential crisis.
For years leaders at the Federal Reserve have been rolling over the balance sheet to keep it at $4.5 trillion.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner by James Rickards ‘ June 30, 2017.

Many European Banks Would Collapse Without Regulators’ Help: Fitch

Only two things keep these banks alive: ‘a State willing to support them and a regulator that does not declare them insolvent.’
Dozens of Greek, Italian, Spanish and even German lenders have volumes of troubled assets higher or similar to that of Spain’s fallen lender Banco Popular. They, too, are at risk of insolvency. This stark observation came fromBridget Gandy, director of financial institutions for Fitch Ratings, who spoke at a conference in London on Thursday.
The troubled banks include:
Greece’s HB, Piraeus, NBG, Eurobank and Alpha; Italy’s Monte dei Pachi di Siena (which is in the process of being rescued with state funds), Carige (9th largest bank, now under ECB orders to raise capital or else), CreVal, and the two collapsed banks, Veneto and Vicenza (whose senior bondholders were bailed out last weekend); Germany’s Bremer Landesbank (which just cancel interest payments on its CoCo bonds) and shipping lender HSH Nordbank. Spain’s Liberbank and majority state-owned BMN and Bankia, which are completing a merger after private-sector institutions refused to buy BMN. Now, the problems on BMN’s balance sheet belong to Bankia, which already has its own set of issues, Gandy said.

This post was published at Wolf Street by Don Quijones ‘ Jul 1, 2017.

Illinois on Brink of Default

While politicians always talk about the poor and the needy, they never talk about how their own pensions are breaking the bank and come before everything else. It’s always the poor, which is the lead to raising taxes. So here you have a politician pleading with the people to tell their representative end the impasse and raise taxes for the poor – without mentioning the core of the crisis – pensions.
Armstrong Economics

This post was published at Armstrong Economics on Jul 1, 2017.

29 States Refuse To Give Data To Voter Fraud Panel, “What Are They Trying To Hide” Trump Asks

Together with lashing out at the anchors of Morning Joe, slamming “garbage” fake news CNN, and suggesting that Greta Van Susteren was fired because she “refused to go along with Trump hate”, President Trump on Saturday blasted the 29 (and rising) states refusing to comply with his election fraud commission’s request for voter data to a commission he created to investigate alleged voter fraud, asking “what are they trying to hide?”
Numerous states are refusing to give information to the very distinguished VOTER FRAUD PANEL. What are they trying to hide?
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 1, 2017

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 1, 2017.

The Looming Energy Shock

There will be an extremely painful oil supply shortfall sometime between 2018 and 2020. It will be highly disruptive to our over-leveraged global financial system, given how saddled it is with record debts and unfunded IOUs.
Due to a massive reduction in capital spending in the global oil business over 2014-2016 and continuing into 2017, the world will soon find less oil coming out of the ground beginning somewhere between 2018-2020.
Because oil is the lifeblood of today’s economy, if there’s less oil to go around, price shocks are inevitable. It’s very likely we’ll see prices climb back over $100 per barrel. Possibly well over.
The only way to avoid such a supply driven price-shock is if the world economy collapses first, dragging demand downwards.
Not exactly a great “solution” to hope for.
Pick Your Poison
This is why our view is that either
the world economy outgrows available oil somewhere in the 2018 – 2020 timeframe, or the world economy collapses first, thus pushing off an oil price shock by a few years (or longer, given the severity of the collapse) If (1) happens, the resulting oil price spike will kneecap a world economy already weighted down by the highest levels of debt ever recorded, currently totaling some 327% of GDP:

This post was published at PeakProsperity on Friday, June 30, 2017,.

“It’s Fake Fiscal News” – Jim Chanos Dashes Economic Pipe Dreams, Fears Much Worse To Come

Authored by Lynn Paramore via INETEconomics.com,
The famed short-seller offers a mid-2017 reality check for ‘fake fiscal news,’ economic pipe dreams, and ‘portents of even worse things’
Since the election of Donald Trump, the stock market has soared and many pundits have noted positive economic trends in the US. Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates, known for his financial prescience, is less sanguine. He sat down with INET’s Lynn Parramore to discuss the underlying components of the economy, in which he finds several areas of concern. Chanos is a member of INET’s Global Partners Council.
Lynn Parramore: Let’s talk about perceptions of the U. S. economy. You’ve pointed out that surveys asking how people feel about the economy show optimism, while actual hard numbers look disappointing. What do you make of this gap?
Jim Chanos: It’s intriguing that people are reporting they’re feeling better, particularly in the corporate sector, but even among consumers. People say they feel good about the economy and yet they apparently don’t have any money at the end of every month to keep spending.
We’re seeing weak consumer spending numbers in both auto and housing, which are big drivers of the economy. With unemployment so low and the expansion where it is, these figures should be better than they are. There are portents of even worse things when you look at state and federal tax receipts, which are down, and other leading indicators.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jul 1, 2017.

Rich Dad Poor Dad Robert Kiyosaki Warns Trump Of Deep State Takedown: ‘My Concern For My Friend The President… They Are Going To Find Something’

Robert Kiyosaki is the well known author of the widely popular Rich Dad, Poor Dad series. As an outside-the-box thinker Kiyosaki has recently suggested that the U. S. economy is under so much pressure that it is in real danger of collapse. He is also a long-time advocate of gold and silver as a way to protect wealth during times of financial calamity. Kiyosaki happens to be a very good friend of President Donald Trump, with whom he has written two books.
In the following interview with Infowars.com, he says that America is not only in serious trouble because of a poor education system, corrupt bureaucrats and socialist-leaning government employees, but that entrenched Deep State elites are feverishly working to take down the President.
In dealing with Donald… he’s straight… he listens… he makes decision quickly…
And I think that’s his Achilles heel… You know, because bureaucrats, all they want is to keep their jobs… they’re not here to get the job done.

This post was published at shtfplan on July 1st, 2017.

“We Don’t Know What Happened” St. Louis Officials Clueless As Downtown Sinkhole Swallows Car

In a development that should send a chill down the spine of every citizen of St. Louis – especially considering the city’s efforts to revitalize its violence-plagued downtown – a sinkhole spontaneously appeared in the city’s downtown, swallowing a car that had been parked street side.
And even more concering, city officials say they have no idea how it happened.
Vincent Foggie, of the city’s water division, said the hole was missing mounds of dirt that normally support the road’s asphalt-topped concrete. He called such voids large enough to swallow a vehicle a rarity in the city. “We don’t know what happened,” Foggie said. “I have no idea where the dirt went.”
St Louis resident Jordan Westerberg parked his car on sixth street downtown near the railway exchange building on Thursday morning as he and his fiance headed to an early morning workout at a gym nearby.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 30, 2017.

America’s Fertility Rate Falls To Record Low

The US isn’t yet grappling with the economic disaster that is a shrinking popuation – unlike Japan. Though it’s starting to look like a not-too-distant possibility. US birthrates fell to yet another historic low in 2016 as a whirlwind of economic and cultural factors inspire more women to delay, or forgo, having children. According to provisional data for the fourth quarter provided by the CDC, the US birthrate has declined to 62 births per 1000 women – its lowest level on record, and down from 62.5 in 2015.
This is especially troubling because demographers worry that a dwindling birth rate will hurt economic growth and tax revenues needed to fund transfer payments to a growing elderly population, as more members of the baby boomer generation age into retire.
The CDC did not say why the birth rate is declining. But according to Axios, research and surveys have shown several reasons, including wider availability of birth control, personal economic instability from student loans or other debt, women focused on launching a career before starting a family, and a growing acceptance that not everyone wants to have children.
If the Trump administration achieves higher economic growth, it’s unlikely to do so fast enough to support the mandated 9% increase in entitlement spending for older Americans without more deficit spending. Trump says he intends to preserve Social Security and Medicare spending levels. The highest birthrates are now seen among women aged 30-34. Previously, the highest rate had been for women aged 25-29, which fell to 101.9 in 2016.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 30, 2017.

What’s The Real Story on The NY ‘Doctor’?

A doctor who killed another physician at a New York City medical center and wounded six other people before taking his own life had sent an email to a newspaper blaming hospital officials for wrecking his career, the New York Daily News reported on Saturday.
Yes, it was all the hospital’s fault.
Let’s see what we know. The “doctor” was an immigrant; from Nigeria, it appears. Reuters “mentions” that he obtained a medical degree from Dominica, but doesn’t mention a few other things.
Like, for example, that his name is a muslim northern Nigerian name. He apparently threatened to kill his co-workers, if this source is to be believed, and then carried out that threat. Oh, and he has three prior arrests, all involving allegations of various improprieties with women, dating back to 2003.
It appears that he came to New York for the explicit purpose of carrying out this act; CBS New York says he was living in California, which certainly implies he went to a hell of a lot of trouble and this was no “random” incident.

This post was published at Market-Ticker on 2017-07-01.

Maine To Begin Shutdown After Gov. LePage Says He Won’t Sign Budget Bill

After Maine Gov. Paul LePage delivered an ultimatum to state lawmakers, promising to provoke a government shutdown should the state’s legislature hand him a budget that includes a tax increase, it appears the governor intends to keep his word.
LePage told reporters at the state capital that he won’t sign anything Friday, ensuring that a shutdown will begin at midnight, because the current budget proposalwhich was endorsed late Thursday by a special panel of lawmakers but has not yet been approved by the state legislature, includes a 1.5% lodging tax increase.
According to the Bangor Daily News, the budget package currently under consideration would raise the lodging tax from 9% to 10.5%. The budget does, however, include a 3% cut to an education surtax on individuals earning more than $200,000. LePage has also taken issue with the size of the $7.1 billion budget.
To be sure, it’s not entirely certain that the budget will even make it to the governor’s desk before the day is over. That’s because LePage has asked the state’s House Republicans to oppose the deal, which was negotiated by Senate President Mike Thibodeau, R-Winterport, and House Speaker Sara Gideon, D-Freeport.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 30, 2017.

Janet Yellen Just Said The Most Ridiculous Thing We’ve Heard All Year!

Of all people, the last person you should ever ask about what is going to happen in the economy is a central banker or a Keynesian economist.
They are, after all, communists trying to centrally plan the economy. Commies are always clueless about economics.
And, their track record of predicting the economic future is almost perfect in that they almost always say ‘this time things are different’ just moments before another crash happens.
In September of 1929, Keynesian Yale Economist, Irving Fisher, said, ‘Stocks have reached a permanently high plateau.’
Less than two months later, the most devastating stock market crash in US history occurred along with a 12-year depression.
More recently, Ben Bernanke, in 2007, said, ‘Our assessment is that there’s not much indication at this point that subprime mortgage issues have spread into the broader mortgage market, which still seems to be healthy.’

This post was published at Dollar Vigilante on July 1, 2017.

‘Tesla Is A Big Pile Of Sh_t’

Jason Burack (Wall St for Main St) interviews notable Tesla bear, Mark Spiegel. As readers know, I’m in agreement with Spiegel in thinking Tesla stock is worth zero. In fact, I’ve stated publicly that I’m trying to decide if the world’s greatest Ponzi operator award goes to Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. Spiegel makes a great case that it belongs to Musk.
– ‘They’re losing a massive amount of money and actually showing negative scale [losing more as sales grow]. They’re losing more money on an operating basis with almost no direct long-range electric car competition. A massive amount of that competition rolls out at the of this year and then hugely in 2018, 2019 and 2020.’
– ‘No sustainable proprietary technology.’ There’s several companies with better technology but they don’t promote the way Musk promotes.
– ‘Every business Musk has is based on Government subsidies. And they still lose money. He’s the only guy who can pull down billions in Government subsidies and still lose money.’
– ‘Every business Tesla is in is a shitty business. And when you put together a collection of shitty businesses, you don’t get a good business – you just get a bigger pile of shit’

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on July 1, 2017.