WTI/RBOB Pump’n’Dump After Gasoline Build, Production Surge

Following API’s reported build in gasoline (and distillates), oil prices have chopped around amid Saudi headlines and OPEC jawboning, as all eyes are focused on gasoline inventories in the DOE report. An unexpedted draw in Gasoline (and Crude draw) sent prices higher initially, but another surge in production capped some of the gains and prices fell back.
Crude -2.72mm (-1.2mm exp) Cushing -1.269mm Gasoline +346k (+500k exp) Distillates +1.837mm DOE
Crude -2.45mm (-1.2mm exp) Cushing (-579k exp) Gasoline -578k (+500k exp) Distillates +1.08mm (+500k exp)

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 21, 2017.

Are The ‘Toxic’ Democrats Destined To Become A Permanent Minority Party?

It has become exceedingly clear that the Democratic Party is in deep trouble. Close to 55 million dollars was spent on the race in Georgia’s sixth congressional district, and that shattered all kinds of records. Democrat Jon Ossoff was able to raise and spend six times as much money as Karen Handel and yet he still lost. This was supposed to be the race that would show the American people that the Democrats could take back control of Congress in 2018, and so for the Democrats this was a bitter failure. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee actually injected almost 5 million dollars into the race themselves, and Planned Parenthood threw in another $700,000. But after all of the time, effort and energy that was expended, Handel still won fairly comfortably.
The Democrats are trying to spin this result as some sort of ‘moral victory’, but as Dan Balz of the Washington Post has pointed out, there are ‘no moral victories in politics’…

This post was published at The Economic Collapse Blog on June 21st, 2017.

US Home Prices Surge To Record High As Homebuilder Hope-Reality Gap Largest Ever

Following April’s declines across the home sales data (as well as a dip in homebuilder optimism), existing home sales in May surprised positively (up 1.1% versus -0.4% exp) and follows a small upward revision to April’s drop.
First-time buyers accounted for 33 percent of all sales in May, down from 34 percent in the prior month.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 21, 2017.

Gundlach Warns Flatter Curve Is “A Concern For US Economic Growth”

Doubleline Capital founder Jeff Gundlach warned that the flattening yield curve could become a concern for US economic growth when two and three-year notes yield about the same, and the price per barrel of WTI crude oil plunges into the $30s, he said during a phone call with a Reuters reporter.
The last time the spread between two- and three-year yields held below 10 basis points was around the time former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced the beginning of Operation Twist and then QE3 in late 2012.

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 21, 2017.


GOLD: $1243.40 UP $2.40
Silver: $16.36 DOWN 4 cent(s)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1246.50
silver: $16.44
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$10.50
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1247.05
For comex gold:
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 2621 FOR 262,100 OZ (8.1524 TONNES)
For silver:
For silver:
200,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 957 for 4,785,000 oz

This post was published at Harvey Organ Blog on June 21, 2017.

Off the Deep End

I just looked at the charts here at 6am Pacific time. I shouldn’t be surpised… Here, have a cup of coffee. I sure needed one.
I thought you might have friends or relatives who could use a bit of perspective–from reasonable ground that can bear scrutiny. And for this blog, I suspect this is another sermon for the choir, for most.
In late October of 2016, I foolishly posted my reasons for voting for Trump on Facebook for all my friends & family to read. They did. And they proceeded to beat the hell out of me, or stand by and watch. No doubt most thought, ‘Don’t know what’s wrong with that boy.’ ‘He’s gone off the deep end’
Private conversations with a few have smoothed over some differences. Others have been silent, showing civility and restraint, but still perhaps wondering what went wrong with me. ‘Civility’ of course is simply not telling others what you really think about them, choosing instead to focus on shared interests, like the weather. But going off the deep end can certainly lead the wrong direction – drowning in a dark pool of the unknown where things lurk, and long tentacles rise to wrap around your ankle and quickly pull you under. So I read the objections of my friends and relatives as a well-intentioned effort to help me back to rationality.
Most lakes have a slope down to the deep end – and this is one of them.
I was thirty-two years old when I started back to college in 1990 after 12 years in the electrical trade, with union membership, a solid democrat perspective on politics, and a union-inspired socialistic preference for economics. Liberal progressivism had not developed to today’s level by the time I graduated for the 3rd time ten years later. I had earned a PhD and changed careers to become a college teacher. Repulsed by the Clinton scandals and opposing the drain of our government budgets by social programs (as championed by democrats), I started voting for republicans. My socialistic views softened, giving way to a rational capitalism, although I still favor taking care of folks in a bind through job training and employment assistance. I landed a position teaching in college, earning tenure, advancing toward full professorship, beginning to publish articles in our discipline’s top journals.
Then 2008 happenend.

This post was published at TF Metals Report on Wednesday, June 21, 2017.

Since Seattle Placed A Tax On Guns And Ammunition, The City’s Violent Crime Rate Has Increased

In recent years, Seattle has developed a reputation for passing asinine laws. Recently the city tried to increase taxes on diet soda, because the drink is more popular among white people. In the past they’ve allowed 6th graders to receive IUDs without parental consent, and have enlisted garbage men to snoop through residential trash in search of compost that is illegal to throw out. Seattle was also the first American city to pass a $15 minimum wage law, which promptly hurt low wage workers.
So it’s no surprise that sometimes the city passes laws that backfire in very predictable ways. In 2015 Seattle tried to place a tax on gun and ammunition purchases, in an effort to curb some of the costs the city pays for gun violence. However, these taxes didn’t have the desired effect.
Seattle City Councilman Tim Burgess introduced the tax in 2015. It puts a $25 tax on every firearm sold in the city and up to 5 cents per round of ammunition. The measure easily passed and took effect January 1, 2016. Comparing the first five months of 2017 with the same period before the gun tax went into effect, reports of shots fired are up 13 percent, the number of people injured in shootings climbed 37 percent and gun deaths doubled, according to crime statistics from the Seattle Police Department.

This post was published at shtfplan on June 21st, 2017.

Global Equities Markets Weaker Amid Falling Oil, Bond Yields

(Kitco News) – World stock markets were mostly lower overnight, due in part to falling crude oil prices recently and by lower world government bond market yields.
Slumping oil prices and lower bond yields suggest inflationary price pressures will remain squelched. U. S. stock indexes are also pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
On the world geopolitical front, Saudi Arabia has a new crown prince, in a surprise change of leadership for that country. The new prince could take a harder line on Iran, reports said.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on June 20, 2017.

Random Thoughts on this Crazy Charging Stock Market Bull

In the sphere of thought, absurdity and perversity remain the masters of the world, and their dominion is suspended only for brief periods. Arthur Schopenhauer
The proverbial question for many years has always been; when will this stock market bull end? By every measure of logic and or common sense, this bull market should have crashed years ago. However, it hasn’t, and much to the angst of many professionals continued its march upwards against all the odds. We would like to stop here and state that this market is now very close to trading in the extremely overbought ranges. A market can trade in the overbought ranges for an extended period. In this instance, we analysed monthly charts, where each bar represents a month’s worth of data. Historically, a market has experienced a correction within 5-10 months from the occurrence of this event. As of yet, the markets are not trading in the extremely overbought ranges on the monthly charts, but they are very close to moving into this zone.
Why has this market defied the expectations of all the professionals?
One of the culprits could be the emotional state of the masses. There is something almost insane taking place in this bull market; the higher it trends, the more anxious individuals come. It almost does not make sense as the opposite of this is what normally takes place. Were we not experiencing this first hand, we would find it almost impossible to believe such an event could occur.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 21 June 2017.

We Need A Public Inquiry Into The Economics Profession

Britain is preparing to leave the European Union with no real plan and a government in disarray, writes economist, Ann Pettifor. How can we trust economists at the Treasury not to impose more disastrous policies?
If the British economy crashes as a result of Brexit, it will not vindicate economists. It will simply illustrate once again, their failure.
I and my colleagues at Policy Research in Macroeconomics (PRIME) believe there is urgent need for an independent, public inquiry into the economics profession, and its role in precipitating both the financial crisis of 2007-9, the subsequent very slow ‘recovery’; and in the British European referendum campaign.
Financial disarray is not unlikely under Brexit, but whether this turns into anything material depends in the first instance on economic policy. How can we trust economists at the Treasury not to impose more disastrous policies?

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 21, 2017.

Even the Mainstream Sees the Disconnect Between Fed Rhetoric and Actual Data

The Fed is hawkish about jacking up interest rates, but even the mainstream is catching on to the disconnect between Fed rhetoric and actual data.
The recent Federal Reserve rate increase and talk of more boosts in the future has sparked a rally for the dollar. This has caused the price of gold to sag. But TJM Institutional Services managing director Jim Iuorio recently said on CNBC’s Futures Now that he’s still bullish on gold because he thinks the Fed’s hawkish tone doesn’t line up with actual economic data.
I’m a longer-term bull in gold and if you look at the long-term chart the trend is still higher. What the Fed said yesterday is disconcerting to the market, and that’s why the dollar rallied so hard. But as we start to move away from that, we start to see some data that is deteriorating, the dollar should shrink back again and gold should be fine.

This post was published at Schiffgold on JUNE 21, 2017.

Secular Stagnation?

In today’s Outside the Box my good friend Charles Gave shares an instructive ‘Tale of Two Countries.’ Since 1981 in the UK and France, structural growth rates have diverged: The rate has fallen by two-thirds in France, while in the UK it has risen. Why? Well, to begin with, in the UK Margaret Thatcher was elected prime minister in 1979 and almost at once reduced the role of the bureaucracy in managing economic activity and dialed back government spending as a percentage of GDP. Meanwhile, in France, Franois Mitterrand was elected president in 1981 on a platform that expressly aimed to expand the scope of government.
The effects on growth were predictable, says Charles, having been explained by Joseph Schumpeter in his 1942 book Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy.
More recently, in the US, when government spending as a percentage of GDP shot up from 33% to 39% during the Great Recession, our growth rate fell from 2.5% to less than one percent. And that, says Charles, is the story on US stagnation – not the more fashionable narrative of ‘secular stagnation.’

This post was published at Mauldin Economics on JUNE 21, 2017.

Anti-Gold Propaganda Flares Up

Predictably, after the gold price has been pushed down in the paper market by the western Central Banks – primarily the Federal Reserve – negative propaganda to outright fake news proliferates.
The latest smear-job comes from London-based Capital Economics by way of Kitco.com. Some ‘analyst’ – Simona Gambarini – with the job title, ‘commodity economist,’ reports that ‘gold’s luck has run out’ with the 25 basis point nudge in rates by the Fed. She further explains that her predicted two more rate hikes will cause even more money to leave the gold market.
Hmmm…if Ms. Gambarini were a true economist, she would have conducted enough thorough research of interest rates to know that every cycle in which the Fed raises the Funds rate is accompanied by a rise in the price of gold. This is because the market perceives the Fed to be ‘behind the curve’ on rising inflation, something to which several Fed heads have alluded. In fact, the latest Fed rate hike, on balance, has lowered longer term interest rates, as I detailed here: Has The Fed Really Raised Rates?

This post was published at Investment Research Dynamics on June 21, 2017.

Oil Bear Market Sends Global Stocks, Yields Sliding; Chinese MSCI Addition Fizzles

In an eventful overnight session which saw a historic transition in Saudi Arabia, an unexpected Republican victory in the Georgia Special Election, China’s inclusion in the MSCI EM index and Travis Kalanick’s resignation, S&P futures continued to fall, alongside stock markets in Asia and Europe, while oil prices extended their drop despite a larger than expected draw reported by API on Tuesday. The USDJPY continued its recent slide, dropping just shy of 111, while GBPUSD tumbled as low as 1.2589, the lowest since May announced the UK election, only to reverse and recover all gains ahead of the Queen’s speech on Wednesday.
Despite the much hyped inclusion of 222 mainland Chinese shares in the MSCI EM index starting May 2018, which will by only 0.73% to include Chinese A-shares, the Shanghai composite closed a modest 0.5% higher, as the initial euphoria fizzled following calculations that buying pressure from the MSCI shift would be muted. MSCI estimated the change, due around the middle of next year, would drive inflows of between $17 billion and $18 billion. China’s market cap is roughly $7 trillion.
The index provider also set out a laundry list of liberalization requirements before it would consider further expansion. “We suspect that it will be a long time before this happens,” wrote analysts at Capital Economics in a note. While China’s weighting in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index may ultimately rise to 40 percent or so, this rise is likely to be slow,” they added. “The upshot is that any initial boost to equities is likely to be small.”

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 21, 2017.

Pound Surges As BOE Chief Economist “Leans Toward” Hiking Rates In 2017

Here we go again.
One week after the pound surged following the BOE’s unexpectedly hawkish 5-3 vote split, then tumbled after Mark Carney’s speech yesterday which suggested no rate hike is coming any time soon, today, for the third time in almost as many days, all GBPUSD stops were taken out after BoE Chief Economist, Andy Haldane, surprised the market with unexpectedly hawkish comments in his speech in Yorkshire. He said he was leaning toward joining the hawks on the Monetary Policy Committee and considered a vote for a rate increase as early as June. He also said he favors withdrawing some of the August 2016 stimulus in the second half, and that the partial withdrawal of additional stimulus put in place last year would be ‘prudent relatively soon, provided the data come in broadly as expected in the period ahead.’

This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 21, 2017.

100% Chance of Recession Within 7 Months?

We asked this question one week after Trump was elected:
‘What does history predict for the Trump presidency?’
The answer we furnished – based on over a century of data – was this:
A 100% chance of recession within his first year.
Not a 90% chance, that is. Not even a 99% chance. But a 100% chance of recession.
That answer came by way of a certain Raoul Pal. He used to captain one of the largest hedge funds in the world.
And to prove his case he called the unimpeachable witness of history to the stand…
Crunching 107 years worth of data, he showed the U. S. economy enters or is in a recession every time a two-term president vacates the throne:
Since 1910, the U. S. economy is either in recession or enters a recession within 12 months in every single instance at the end of a two-term presidency… effecting a 100% chance of recession for the new president.
Obama was a two-term president – if memory serves.

This post was published at Wall Street Examiner on June 20, 2017.

Gold Market Morning: June-21-2017: Gold still stabilizing below $1,250

Gold Today – New York closed at $1,243.50 yesterday after closing at $1,251.5 yesterday. London opened at $1,246.00 today.
Overall the dollar was slightly stronger against global currencies, early today. Before London’s opening:
– The $: was slightly stronger at $1.1145 after yesterday’s $1.1155: 1.
– The Dollar index was stronger at 97.66 after yesterday’s 97.57.
– The Yen was stronger at 111.14 after yesterday’s 111.39:$1.
– The Yuan was slightly weaker at 6.8264 after yesterday’s 6.8258: $1.
– The Pound Sterling was weaker at $1.2627 after yesterday’s $1.2659: 1.
Yuan Gold Fix
Despite the central Bank in Hong Kong statement of yesterday that it wanted a stable exchange rate to the dollar, the Yuan has weakened a little in the last two days. This does not mean the policy has changed, just as it will not be a fixed exchange rate.
What is becoming clear is that Shanghai’s pricing power over the gold price is being proved this week and last, as it has been leading the way both ways.

This post was published at GoldSeek on 21 June 2017.

5 Ways Fed Rate Hikes May Squeeze Your Wallet

The Federal Reserve nudged up interest rates another .25 points last week. Of course, nobody was surprise by the central bank’s move. It was widely expected. Nevertheless, the Fed’s latest policy move has everybody bullish on increasing rates into the future
Of course, nothing has fundamentally changed. As Paul Singer said earlier this month, the financial system is no more sound than it was in 2008. All of this talk about rate hikes will vanish like a vapor if actual economic data continues to point toward a slowdown.
But since everybody is talking rate hikes right now, this is probably a good time to consider just how rising interest rates will effect your wallet.
We tend to think about Federal Reserve policy in macro-economic terms. How will it effect the stock market? What kind of bubbles will it blow up? How will it impact the price of gold? But Fed policy also has a direct effect on the average American. In simplest terms, rising rates mean it will cost you more to pay off credit cards and other loans. That’s not good news for an economy buried in debt.
Here are five ways rising interest rates can put the squeeze on your pocketbook.

This post was published at Schiffgold on JUNE 21, 2017.