For the 13th straight week, US economic data disappointed (already downgraded) expectations, sending Citi’s US Macro Surprise Index to its weakest since August 2011 (crashing at a pace only beaten by the periods surrounding Lehman and the US ratings downgrade). The last time, Us economic data disappointed this much, Ben Bernanke immediately unleashed Operation Twist… but this time Janet Yellen is hiking rates and unwinding the balance sheet?
As Citi notes, breaking down this move, we can see that the recent data
disappointments have been driven by a steady fall in the underlying
data, rather than overly exuberant expectations. In other words, economists have been adjusting expectations downwards, but the data has been falling at a faster rate.
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Jun 16, 2017.