China’s Impossible Trinity

You’re probably familiar with the story of how Soros and Druckenmiller ‘broke the Bank of England’ in 92′.
The two bet against the pound believing that it couldn’t maintain its peg to the Deutsche Mark in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). They were right. The Bank of England was forced to stop defending the peg and the pound plummeted. The Quantum Fund (Soros and Druckenmiller) netted over a billion dollars over the course of a few days. The rest is history.
Don’t miss Martin Armstrong on Capital Flows, Market Bubbles, and the Road Ahead
It was an amazing trade. It had all the markings of a ‘perfect setup’; the kind that only came around once every decade or so. It was extremely asymmetric in that the risk was clearly defined by the upper-band of the ERM peg. And if the lower bound broke, like they expected, they knew the pound would collapse due to all the investors on the wrong side forced to liquidate.
It was also a fundamentally compelling trade. The thesis was based on an economic law derived from the Mundell-Fleming model. It states that in a world of high capital mobility, a central bank can target the exchange rate or the interest rate but not both. This economic reality is also known as the policy trilemma. Here’s the following explanation from The Economist:

This post was published at FinancialSense on 01/31/2017.