First published Sat Sep 10 for members : The market action this past week started out quite strong, and raised many hopes. However, since I do not have a clear 5 wave structure confidently developed off the recent lows, I have to put hopes aside, and view the market in a dispassionate manner. And, that dispassionate manner sees strong potential for another drop in the complex.
Last week, I noted that I can become aggressively bullish again should we see a clear 5 wave structure complete off the recent lows. While I can make a colorful attempt at classifying the recent rally in the metals complex as a 5 wave structure, I have to be honest in my analysis and state that, to me, it did not look like a clear 5 wave structure. So, the immediate bullish count will only be an alternative to me at this time, which the market will have to prove to me.
That means I have moved into the current market action representing a wave ii in the larger GDX count, whereas silver and gold still seem to present as a wave 2 in wave iii. However, should the GDX be able to strongly break out impulsively over the recent highs, then I will view everything in the heart of a wave iii higher. This is my simplified perspective.
Now, before we move into the individual charts, I want to note something I have suggested in the past. For those that remember back to 2015, I was suggesting we would see a paradigm change in our markets. In fact, I noted that we would likely see the metals trade in tandem with the equity markets, especially since most assumed the exact opposite would occur. And, 2016 has, thus far, proven me correct in my expectations.
This post was published at GoldSeek on Wednesday, 14 September 2016.
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