This week’s marked sell-off in crude oil prices came as no surprise to petroleum geologist Art Berman, who has been predicting the price decline for weeks now. More to the point, Berman says it’s not over yet and lower oil prices are still to come. Berman gave an excellent long-form interview for this week’s MacroVoices podcast. The program begins with a market summary and the interview begins at 7:09, and is summarized below. After the interview, a second short interview follows with the founders of #OOTT, the Organization of Oil-Trading Tweeters, an online community of oil traders who share research and trading ideas on Twitter.
Berman begins by observing that it’s Labor Day weekend – the end of summer driving season and historically speaking, what should be the end of a period of seasonal de-stocking of crude oil inventories, which is critically important to make room for the storage demands that predictably come during fall refinery maintenance. But Berman shows that nation-wide crude oil inventories have actually INCREASED to the tune of 6.46mm barrels over the last 6 weeks, a period when inventory levels historically move in the opposite direction!
Berman then introduces his Comparative Inventory charts, which measure inventory growth relative to historical norms, effectively factoring out seasonality effects from the data. Seen in this view, the build in inventory over the last 6 weeks is actually 16mm barrels above and beyond seasonally adjusted historical norms, completely anomalous given this time of year:
This post was published at Zero Hedge on Sep 4, 2016.