The PMI number came in much lower than expected this morning at 49.4, an outright contraction.
This was dismissed by some as indicative of manufacturing, which is no longer very important to GDP as compared to the ‘service sector.’
All eyes will be on the Non-Farm Payrolls report, probably to an excess, because the thinking is that a stronger number will give the hawks cover to arm twist a 25 bp rate increase at the FOMC in September.
A much lower than expected number will chill that expectation, and will probably cheer on financial asset prices unless it is disastrous.
The expected number is 180,000 and the ‘whisper’ is 200,000.
After the initial reaction, wiser heads will be looking at the prior month’s revision from 255,000 if any. And probably more importantly, they will look at the growth in average hourly earnings.
The financiers and the Democratic establishment would like a number north of 200k. This would give the former a stronger dollar to eat you with my foreign dears, and the latter a boost for their presidential candidate who hopes to ride in on waves of Obama brand economicolatry.
This post was published at Jesses Crossroads Cafe on 01 SEPTEMBER 2016.